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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide  (Read 187776 times)
coloniac
JosepBroz
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« Reply #1300 on: February 13, 2018, 02:13:55 pm »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1301 on: February 13, 2018, 05:45:53 pm »

Vague thought about the FPTP vote - glancing at the 2013 results, M5S's support seems to be fairly evenly spread across the country. In which case, they might stand to lose out fairly badly in the FPTP constituencies if polling continues to show a (rough) 3 way split?
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« Reply #1302 on: February 13, 2018, 05:48:47 pm »

Will 5SM see a backlash in Rome and Turin, I wonder?
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« Reply #1303 on: February 13, 2018, 06:49:44 pm »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
The M5S membership votes for whatever the leadership decides to, in their fake "direct democracy".
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« Reply #1304 on: February 13, 2018, 06:50:54 pm »

Vague thought about the FPTP vote - glancing at the 2013 results, M5S's support seems to be fairly evenly spread across the country. In which case, they might stand to lose out fairly badly in the FPTP constituencies if polling continues to show a (rough) 3 way split?
Absolutely.
As it is, they only have 3 safe seats in the Senate, for instance.

And in the South most seats are too close to call between the right and M5S. If the gap increases just a bit, the right might sweep them and gain a majority.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #1305 on: February 13, 2018, 06:53:06 pm »

Will 5SM see a backlash in Rome and Turin, I wonder?
They'll probably win no seats in Turin. In Rome they'll win a couple in the more degradated peripheric areas, but anyway it'll be interesting to see how they fare after the Raggi administration disaster. Even though it was obvious that Raggi's huge victory in the 2016 run-off was never going to last.
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« Reply #1306 on: February 13, 2018, 07:11:27 pm »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
The M5S membership votes for whatever the leadership decides to, in their fake "direct democracy".
Are the votes rigged, or are the voters just unduly influenced by the opinions of their leaders?
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1307 on: February 13, 2018, 07:45:45 pm »

  Are there a lot of first past the post seats that are fairly marginal that have a lot of the splinter party candidates running as well as those from the big three? 
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coloniac
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« Reply #1308 on: February 14, 2018, 04:46:51 am »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
The M5S membership votes for whatever the leadership decides to, in their fake "direct democracy".
Are the votes rigged, or are the voters just unduly influenced by the opinions of their leaders?

Well from what I heard the issue is how the electorate changes. It votes for one thing one week and a contradictory thing the other.

I'm interested to hear how the leadership influenced this though
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #1309 on: February 14, 2018, 04:53:35 am »

Here there is the programs and full list of candidates, is in italian
http://dait.interno.gov.it/elezioni/trasparenza
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Franco
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« Reply #1310 on: February 14, 2018, 10:41:09 am »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
The M5S membership votes for whatever the leadership decides to, in their fake "direct democracy".
Are the votes rigged, or are the voters just unduly influenced by the opinions of their leaders?

It's both, really.
In the first place, some votes have taken place all of a sudden, with no previous announcement, and have lasted for ridicolously short timespans, meaning that the leaders' preferred choice could easily win thanks to the votes by their hardcore fans (and keep in mind that those who are eligible for voting are already hardcore, longstanding supporters). The first I can think of is the vote on their attempted alliance with ALDE at the European level.
In the second place, often the possible choices are very biased, meaning that even though there is a vote, there is no real choice.
So, the leadership already has a loooot of weight in these votes.

Then, there is the whole issue on the lack of transparency by the Casaleggio & co. (the owners of M5S - for those of you who don't know it, the M5S is not a party, as they proudly announce every other day, but is rather privately owned).
The platform that they use for all of their internal democracy, Rousseau, is easily hackable, as shown a few months ago by a group of hackers. They brought the evidence to Casaleggio and co., only for the M5S leaders to say that there was a political attack against them...
In addition to the possibility of external attacks, there is no proof that the owners of the platform AKA the owners of the M5S (who are strictly on the leadership side - one may even say that it is them who pick the leaders...) do not alter the votes. They just give the final results, and even then, sometimes they do it only after weeks - for instance, this was the case for last month's primaries on the candidates for this GE.


So, yeah, a LOT to say about M5S' whole "direct democracy" bullsh**t.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1311 on: February 14, 2018, 11:06:10 am »

Incidentally if the sort of patterns seen last time Italy had single member constituencies are repeated then there will be a lot of utterly bizarre results and freak winners.
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« Reply #1312 on: February 14, 2018, 11:44:24 am »

Very likely to be TAJANI after the dust settles post March 4th. I also sense that the PD will do far worse than the polls indicate, due primarily to Italy's first-past-the-post election system, which will devastate the left in the South and eviscerate it in the North.

As a consequence, the idea of GENTILONI running a 'caretaker' coalition on the heels of his party's disembowelment will just not appear feasible.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1313 on: February 14, 2018, 02:26:47 pm »

Mmm... only a third of seats are FPTP and unless LeU really messes things up for them wrt vote splitting (which doesn't seem particularly likely on present polling) the PD ought to clean up in the old Red Belt.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1314 on: February 14, 2018, 05:31:44 pm »

   It would be awesome if some of the Italian politics experts could do a FPTP seat analysis, for both the lower chamber and senate.
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« Reply #1315 on: February 15, 2018, 06:05:56 am »

The Bologna senate seat which normally should be ultra-solid Center-Left might become a four-way toss-up between Center-Left, LeU, Center-Right and M5S. The Center-Left is running Pierferdinando Casini, long-time ally of Berlusconi and a "family values" conservative who in his private life doesn't live according to the values that he has been promoting for most of his political carreer. LeU is running Vasco Errani, long-time governor of Emilia-Romagna. This is also going to hurt the PD in the PR vote because they abolished the disjoint vote and now voters have to decide between the packages PD/Casini and LeU/Errani and even if Casini wins, he will have costed them many many PR votes. It seems that the PD has not understood the electoral law that they crafted themselves. In the old times under the Mattarellum law running high-profile allies in ultra-solid seats that were not a good fit for them made sense as long as they won. But now it is going to cost you thousands of PR votes.
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« Reply #1316 on: February 15, 2018, 06:41:56 am »

Bidimedia

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« Reply #1317 on: February 15, 2018, 10:55:54 am »

I'm not expecting a huge write up, bit are there any good resources about how the different regions of Italy behave politically?
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« Reply #1318 on: February 16, 2018, 06:01:44 pm »

IPSOS poll



Center-Right at 283 seats, M5S 152, Center-Left 158, LeU 24 in the Lower House.  FE looks like will cross 3% according to this poll. 

Interesting that M5S scandals did not seem to hurt it that much. 
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1319 on: February 17, 2018, 11:26:41 am »

I'm not expecting a huge write up, bit are there any good resources about how the different regions of Italy behave politically?

I second this question. I can see that Piedmonte/North West would have a left wing tradition by way of it being industrial, that the North East is right wing as a result of being rich and that the South is right-wing/strongish for M5S because it is poor.

But what explains the left wing tradition in Tuscany/Emilia-Romagna/Marche/Umbria; and why does Basilicata stand out from its surroundings?
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« Reply #1320 on: February 17, 2018, 11:33:12 am »

But what explains the left wing tradition in Tuscany/Emilia-Romagna/Marche/Umbria;

It's the old Red Belt - various political traditions combined with what happened during the War to lead to massive Communist strength throughout the region, the legacy of which endures in various ways despite no one actually believing in Communism anymore. But also it's worth noting that e.g. Tuscany is actually quite industrial.

Quote
and why does Basilicata stand out from its surroundings?

It was a stronghold of the left faction in the DCs and so more of the DC vote than was typical transferred over to the PPI and then to the Daisy and eventually the PD.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2018, 11:37:42 am by Filuwaúrdjan »Logged



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« Reply #1321 on: February 17, 2018, 12:07:59 pm »

Yes, tradition/legacy plays a huge role in Italian political orientation and voting patterns. I find the strong divides that cannot be that easily explained to be even more fascinating than the ones that are easier to explain.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1322 on: February 17, 2018, 12:41:02 pm »

  I thought the main reason for the emergence of the Red Belt was that much of that area had been part of the Papal States, before unification, so there was a built-in anti-clericalism that shows itself today in support of left leaning parties.
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« Reply #1323 on: February 17, 2018, 12:52:18 pm »

That sounds very plausible, but keep in mind that Tuscany and Modena-Reggio were not part of the Papal State but are emblematic parts of the Red Belt and that on the other hand large parts of Latium and the Southern Marche were part of the Papal State but are not extremely red.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1324 on: February 17, 2018, 01:29:32 pm »

Yes, tradition/legacy plays a huge role in Italian political orientation and voting patterns. I find the strong divides that cannot be that easily explained to be even more fascinating than the ones that are easier to explain.

Where would you say had a divide that can't be easily explained? Most of the obvious divides I can think of have some sort of anthropological underpinning.
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