Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

It seems to get around the ban on publishing polls in the two weeks before March 4 

http://rightnation.it/

have begun writing up the results of fictitious “underground” races as a means of conveying the performance of various political parties and coalitions.

And

http://www.youtrend.it/voci-dal-conclave/

is known for publishing supposed polls with references to papal conclaves and names of imaginary cardinals to indicate the different candidates.

[Illiniwek]

North American ballot came in for my family.

Is “Free flights to Italy” a joke party or an intrest group for Italians abroad?

They call themselves an NGO. Not having seen something like this its hard to really understand what they actually are. Pretty funny premise though.
https://freeflightstoitaly.ngo

[Mazda]

The PRI is a bit of a blast from the past - and it seems that ALA are (or have been made) very clear on which of the two of them has the strongest brand recognition.

[EPG]

Apparently Free Flights to Italy is not a nice guy.

That sounds very plausible, but keep in mind that Tuscany and Modena-Reggio were not part of the Papal State but are emblematic parts of the Red Belt and that on the other hand large parts of Latium and the Southern Marche were part of the Papal State but are not extremely red.

Yeah, it's not a Papal States thing, I think, but land tenure and lay Catholic organisation among workers. I think what the Papal States explanation gets wrong is that it dates lay Catholic political activity in Italy way too early, when it only began in earnest in the 20th century.

But to give the initial question a really simplistic explanation:

I'm not expecting a huge write up, bit are there any good resources about how the different regions of Italy behave politically?

1. The north-east is centre-right. It was ruled by Austria, and local community organisation was strong before socialism, so lay Catholic organisations became powerful. The economy was dominated by lay Catholics to an extent unusual in Italy.
2. The north-west is contestable like similarly advanced industrial regions in the "blue banana" of Europe. Particularly around Lombardy/Milan, Berlusconi and Forza Italia have done better than the old DC party, due to both a "favourite son" local effect and his less fusty, more American modern conservative appeal.
2a. Both northern regions are resentful of being taxed by a distant Roman authority in "Southern Italy" and the well-off respond distinctly better to anti-state appeals than is usual in Europe.
2b. The linguistic minority regions even more so.
3. The red belt around the Via Aemilia and Florence. With an agricultural sharecropping system unusually prone to socialist and anti-clerical appeals, in most of this region, left-wing parties won the democratic elections since 1919 and led the resistance to wartime occupation. "Political culture" is sometimes vague to the onlooker, but here it means that in both rural or urban areas, people were socialised in proletarian institutions like peasants' unions, agricultural labourers' unions and eventually the PSI/PCI social life. Note that the left-wing parties have polled much better among elevated social classes in the red belt than elsewhere.
4. Rome and a nearby belt across Italy are like a blend of the red belt and the south. The MSI gained a distinct opening here after the war due to memories of greatness, the anti-democratic tendencies of the gerontocratic civil service appointed under Mussolini, plus a desire among ordinary voters to fight the corruption of the democratic parties. Rome remains prone to such populist forces, but has tended more toward the left as, like all Western countries, the metropolitan educated public sector has grown.
5. The south is quite poor, as you may know. It took quite a time for the left to overcome the power of DC to distribute patronage investments, a very strong reaction from property owners against changes to land tenure, the tendency for the most discontent citizens to move within Italy or emigrate, general scepticism that one's vote would matter in a state apparatus dominated by Padanians and Romans, and above all the widespread religious observance that continues to this day.

[DavidB.]

^ Great summary, thanks!

Is there any VoteMatch/VoteCompass/you name it test?

[FrancoAgo]

^ Great summary, thanks!

Is there any VoteMatch/VoteCompass/you name it test?

here, in italian
https://www.navigatoreelettorale.it/it/#!/

[DavidB.]

Thank you! Surprisingly comprehensible to me: for most of them I didn't need Google Translate.

[Leftbehind]

^ Great summary, thanks!

Is there any VoteMatch/VoteCompass/you name it test?

here, in italian
https://www.navigatoreelettorale.it/it/#!/

I'm closest to PC, with LeU, M5S and PuSR also being options.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Apparently I got this result

I am apparently the closest to the 5 star movement??

[FrancoAgo]

I'm closest to PC, with LeU, M5S and PuSR also being options.

I'm a closest to LeU, but i vote Potere al Popolo,

[Leftbehind]

I'm closest to PC, with LeU, M5S and PuSR also being options.

I'm a closest to LeU, but i vote Potere al Popolo,

I'd be tempted to vote PaP, but I think I'd vote LeU simply because I'd want a bloc to the left of PD large enough/credible that it could attract voters in a bid to replace PD (and hopefully attract PaP into an alliance).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The big problem with LeU is it's full of terrible old PD hacks who seem more butthurt that Renzi was mean to them than any real opposition to austerity (indeed they were only too happy to join in with austerity before Renzi).

[Leftbehind]

The big problem with LeU is it's full of terrible old PD hacks who seem more butthurt that Renzi was mean to them than any real opposition to austerity (indeed they were only too happy to join in with austerity before Renzi).

Too true - but the left-of-PD vote is piss-weak, unfortunately, so PaP seems like an indulgence.

[MAINEiac4434]

Ended up closest to Insieme. PaP and LeU tied for second.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Seems like I'm closest to the Democratic Party, pretty close to the Popular Civic List, with Insieme pretty close and both More Europe (my likeliest choice in the election) and Free and Equal also in the radar. Pretty accurate, I'd say.

[Tirnam]

PD: 72%
+Europa: 70%
Insieme: 70%
Liberi e Uguali: 69%

In the compass I'm very close to Civica Popolare but in the ranking they are only at 60%.

[Illiniwek]

Insieme: 75%
Civica-Popolare: 65%
Liberi e Uguali: 64%
PD: 62%
M5S: 55%

I kinda understand why the numbers and the chart match up, but not completely. But my results make quite a bit of sense. I'm lost in that wilderness between PD and M5S.

[mvd10]

On the chart I'm slightly to the right of NcI

Ranking:
68% NcI
68% +Europa
65% Forza Italia
60% PD

[Illiniwek]

The wife decided to go anti-anti-establishment, so I'm dropping off a ballot for PD at the consulate tomorrow.

[FrancoAgo]

My ranking is
Sinistra Rivoluzionaria 80%
LeU 78%
Potere al Popolo 77%
Partito Comunista 71%

[TheSaint250]

This is what I'm predicting:

M5S: 27.0%
Democratic Party: 23.5%
Forza Italia: 16.0%
Lega: 14.0%
Free and Equal: 5.0%
Brothers of Italy: 4.5%
More Europe: 2.5%
Other: 7.5%

[jaichind]

What times does the polls close and are there links to live results ?

[TheSaint250]

What times does the polls close and are there links to live results ?

They close at 11 p.m. local time (5 p.m. EST). Not sure about live results.

[jaichind]

What times does the polls close and are there links to live results ?

They close at 11 p.m. local time (5 p.m. EST). Not sure about live results.

I remember back in 2013 the results started to come out the morning of the day after the election. Not sure if they will do the same this time.

[FrancoAgo]

Here http://www.interno.gov.it/it/speciali/elezioni-2018
there will be the link of live results