Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Gustaf]

I don't understand anything.

I know, Italian politics are confusing as sh*t for the uninitiated.

If you have any specific question, I can do my best to explain stuff.

I read Hashemite's post now, so I'm a bit more enlightened. Still, it's...weird. Really weird.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Why is this an enormous mistake? I'm not knowledgeable about the situation.

- Because it means the legislature will last until 2018, which it clearly doesn't deserve to

Oh yeah, that is ridiculous.

[Famous Mortimer]

So basically he has to be ultra centrist to appease the New Centre Right. Then in the next election, he won't be popular with the left and the New Centre Right will be wiped out, making room for Berlusconi.

Stupid.

[Franknburger]

But what would have been the alternative? Having Grillo cruise to another victory in the EP election? Then, with M5S strengthened, further, calling new elections sometimes in late 2014 / early 2015, during a phase when youth unemployment is still likely to be at a record high?

This move gives the Renzi the possibility to reach out to M5S parliamentarians and voters - at best even creating an "anti-Berlusconi" coalition with them. Moreover, by 2018 the economic situation should have improved - ideally due to sensible and effective reforms, otherwise because the downward trend just can't continue forever. Anyway, Renzi has the opportunity to pose as "engineer of Italy's recovery" in 2018. Add to that the hope that even Berlusconi will not be immune to biological processes that take place once you have passed a certain age - voila!

[Zanas]

I hadn't thought about that, but maybe Renzi is just betting on Berlusconi's death at some time, by playing the watch. It's not that stupid after all, the Italian right should have a little hard time recovering from Silvio's disparition.

Still, for many other reasons, stated above and not, it's stupid.

[Famous Mortimer]

I hadn't thought about that, but maybe Renzi is just betting on Berlusconi's death at some time, by playing the watch. It's not that stupid after all, the Italian right should have a little hard time recovering from Silvio's disparition.

Still, for many other reasons, stated above and not, it's stupid.

It's going to be hard for the Italian right as or right now because of the heir apparent of the mainstream right breaking away and propping up a Democratic government.

Had Berlusocni died in the last 5 years or so though, I don't think it would have caused any problems at all. Alfano would have filled his shoes quite easily, probably better, since he doesn't have the baggage.

[Franknburger]

I hadn't thought about that, but maybe Renzi is just betting on Berlusconi's death at some time, by playing the watch. It's not that stupid after all, the Italian right should have a little hard time recovering from Silvio's disparition.

I didn't even want to imply Berlusconi's possible death. But, approaching the age of eighty, his health might deteriorate one way or the other, mentally or physically, which would detriment his masculine, womanising appeal to the electorate. In fact, the QE II scenario is probably even worse for the Italian right than Berlusconi's death.

[Keystone Phil]

Renzi lasting until 2018? No.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi lasting until 2018? No.

Yeah, few Italian PMs lasted more than 2 years, and those who did had the backing of a real parliamentary majority. I really want to believe Renzi will do wonders, but I'm not very hopeful right now.

[Diouf]

Polls from IPR. Hope the translations are about right, not Italian speaker.



The Renzi-Letta shift

Against
In favour
Don't know/no opinion



Evaluation of the Letta-Renzi shift

Negative, and does not like Renzi
Negative, but likes Renzi
Positive, in order to save Italy
Don't know/ no opinion


How long will the Renzi government last?

Shortly, maximum a year
More than a year, but not 2018
Until the end of the term (2018)
Don't know/no opinion

[Keystone Phil]

Nice find!

[Antonio the Sixth]

As expected... T_T

[Sol]

I bet this benefits the Grillites a good bit...

[Velasco]

Nicolo Machiavelli wrote:

"I conclude therefore that, fortune being changeful and mankind steadfast in their ways, so long as the two are in agreement men are successful, but unsuccessful when they fall out. For my part I consider that it is better to be adventurous than cautious, because fortune is a woman, and if you wish to keep her under it is necessary to beat and ill-use her; and it is seen that she allows herself to be mastered by the adventurous rather than by those who go to work more coldly. She is, therefore, always, woman-like, a lover of young men, because they are less cautious, more violent, and with more audacity command her."

The Prince. Chapter XXV.

Renzi is the adventurous and young man, whereas Letta is an older, cautious and reserved one. It's obvious which one is the chosen by Fortune.

In this video you can see an even younger Matteo Renzi circa 1994 as a contestant on the Italian version of Wheel of Fortune, obviously broadcasted by one of the Berlusconi's channels:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKbYpboK5eE

Regardless which man the changeable Fortune prefers, I wish a long live to Giorgio Napolitano, the only one who shows some decency in this shadowplay.

  

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi will be bringing in a bunch of younger ministers, plus some businesspeople.

[Keystone Phil]

Renzi will be bringing in a bunch of younger ministers, plus some businesspeople.

Wow. Let me guess: he'll meet with the Pope sometime, too?

[Zanas]

Renzi will be bringing in a bunch of younger ministers, plus some businesspeople.

Wow. Let me guess: he'll meet with the Pope sometime, too?

Yeah, probably have a selfie with Barack too.

[RogueBeaver]

100-day agenda. Sounds familiar.

[Senator Cris]

Francesco Pigliaru (CS) wins the Regional Elections in Sardegna.
With the 72,2% of the votes in, Pigliaru is in the lead with the 42,5%. The incumbent Cappellacci (CD) is at 39,3%. Michela Murgia (Ind) at 10,5%, Mario Pili (Ind of CD) at 5,9%, Pier Franco Devias (Ind) at 1% and Luigi Sanna (Ind) at 0,7%.

On the votes to the lists, with the 65,9% of votes in, Democratic Party is at 22,4%. Forza Italia at 18,4%, Udc at 7,4%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good. It's a meager solace considering everything else, but at least Berlusconi's local power structure keeps unraveling.

[palandio]

Fabrizio Barca, who had been minister under Monti and is kind of a left-wing economist, has been called by a person from Radio 24 that faked Nichi Vendola's voice. What Barca told "Vendola" was basically that De Benedetti, owner of the Espresso media group (e.g. the daily La Repubblica) is trying to press him into the Renzi government and that more in general De Benedetti is the man behind the recent political operations.

Any opinions on how serious this can be taken?

[Keystone Phil]

Francesco Pigliaru (CS) wins the Regional Elections in Sardegna.
With the 72,2% of the votes in, Pigliaru is in the lead with the 42,5%. The incumbent Cappellacci (CD) is at 39,3%. Michela Murgia (Ind) at 10,5%, Mario Pili (Ind of CD) at 5,9%, Pier Franco Devias (Ind) at 1% and Luigi Sanna (Ind) at 0,7%.

On the votes to the lists, with the 65,9% of votes in, Democratic Party is at 22,4%. Forza Italia at 18,4%, Udc at 7,4%.

What does this bring the center-right regional governments down to? Two (Calabria and Campania)? Embarrassing.

[palandio]

+Lombardia+Veneto+Lazio+Abbruzzo+Piemonte (though I think the latter could change)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Piemonte should flip soon enough, as Roberto "green underpants" Cota gets his ass kicked.

[Ilùvatar]

Polls are showing a lead for the center-right in both Piemonte and Abruzzo, but reliability is under question since all polls were also giving a lead to Cappellacci (CR) in Sardegna.
I think Piemonte could also swing to center-left. They are pushing a a heavyweight like Chiamparino for the primary and on the other side no one wants to be the punching bag.