Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

If all currently leading candidates (most of which are already mathematically assured to win) do win, this will be the final tally.

House:
- Right-wing Coalition: 265 seats (42%)
- M5S: 227 seats (36%)
- Left-wing Coalition (incl. SVP): 121 seats (19%)
- LeU: 14 seats (2%)
- Italians abroad parties: 3 (0%)

Senate:
- Right-wing Coalition: 137 seats (43%)
- M5S: 113 seats (36%)
- Left-wing Coalition (incl. SVP): 59 seats (19%)
- LeU: 4 seats (1%)
- Italians abroad parties: 2 (1%)

The right is 51 seats short in the House and 21 short in the Senate - not nearly enough for them to hope to glean a few MPs here and there. And I don't see any other party possibly backing Salvini as PM, so that as much is a nightmare scenario we can probably exclude.

[Tender Branson]

Italians' mood right now:

[FrancoAgo]

The right is 51 seats short in the House and 21 short in the Senate - not nearly enough for them to hope to glean a few MPs here and there. And I don't see any other party possibly backing Salvini as PM, so that as much is a nightmare scenario we can probably exclude.

there are also 6 life senators so senate majority is 161, i would be surprise if more that one of this is for Salvini premier, so they are 23 short

[FrancoAgo]

Also, what are the "candidati uninominali"?

FPTP candidate

[SPQR]

Just as a reminder:
LeU ran the most classic left-wing, Corbyn-like campaign (even stealing his motto and proposal on abolishing taxes on university) and got a whopping 3.3%.

So any analysis simply stating that "PD is not left anymore!1!1!!!1" might miss the point on what the Italian society is at the moment.

[Tender Branson]

Shouldn't Südtirol be in red due to the SVP's membership of the Centrosinistra? Or have I missed something?

The SVP is virtually like the ÖVP politically and can be considered center-right.

So the map is OK (even though they run together with the PD).

[MAINEiac4434]

Just as a reminder:
LeU ran the most classic left-wing, Corbyn-like campaign (even stealing his motto and proposal on abolishing taxes on university) and got a whopping 3.3%.

So any analysis simply stating that "PD is not left anymore!1!1!!!1" might miss the point on what the Italian society is at the moment.

LeU did achieve their goal of getting Renzi to screw off forever, though.

[Babeuf]

Just as a reminder:
LeU ran the most classic left-wing, Corbyn-like campaign (even stealing his motto and proposal on abolishing taxes on university) and got a whopping 3.3%.

So any analysis simply stating that "PD is not left anymore!1!1!!!1" might miss the point on what the Italian society is at the moment.

Sure, but LeU were self-evidently the wrong people to make an anti-system left argument. Because of who they are it could never be authentic.

[jaichind]

Just as a reminder:
LeU ran the most classic left-wing, Corbyn-like campaign (even stealing his motto and proposal on abolishing taxes on university) and got a whopping 3.3%.

So any analysis simply stating that "PD is not left anymore!1!1!!!1" might miss the point on what the Italian society is at the moment.

Well, I think the system where the vote for FPTP is the same vote for PR and with it the need for tactical voting most likely understates LeU support (and of course overstates PD support.)  If the two votes were separate I would expect the LeU PR vote share to be higher.

[Bojicat]

Interesting developments. The PD was crushed to virtual non-existence, the worst thumping it has seen "in its history", it is said. It now has pipe dreams of being an "opposition party." It doesn't have the weight for even that, its protests will sound like a faint thud in a noisy factory.

LEGA strode past Berlusconi with unencumbered ease. The wounded fox sits uncharacteristically quiet in one of his manors, licking his wounds.

Who will now lead as prime minister? 5Star feels it was the real victor, gives disdainful short shrift to everyone else. LEGA adamantly says no alliance with 5Star. The PD has had it, repudiated beyond redemption, no other party will want to associate with it. Berlusconi's a schemer, but how far can he go with his vastly dwindled status?

The real headline: a popular cry-out to break an establishment-party/burocrate stranglehold on Italy collapses again to naught and muddle.

[jaichind]

From AP:

(AP) -- Ex-Premier Matteo Renzi is challenging members of his defeated Democrats to publicly declare if they'll support the 5-Star Movement, as he tries to prevent his party from fracturing and backing its political nemesis.
Renzi took to Facebook Tuesday after national election results showed his once-dominant Democratic Party had brought the center-left to its worst showing ever, with the coalition taking less than 23 percent of the vote.
The center-right coalition had 37 percent and the anti-establishment 5-Stars 32 percent. Neither obtained enough to govern.
That outcome has kicked off weeks of horse-trading as each potential governing force tries to pick up support from elsewhere, including from disillusioned Democrats who might be tempted to back the 5-Stars.
Renzi has said the Democrats must be the opposition to any 5-Star government.

[Illiniwek]

From AP:

(AP) -- Ex-Premier Matteo Renzi is challenging members of his defeated Democrats to publicly declare if they'll support the 5-Star Movement, as he tries to prevent his party from fracturing and backing its political nemesis.
Renzi took to Facebook Tuesday after national election results showed his once-dominant Democratic Party had brought the center-left to its worst showing ever, with the coalition taking less than 23 percent of the vote.
The center-right coalition had 37 percent and the anti-establishment 5-Stars 32 percent. Neither obtained enough to govern.
That outcome has kicked off weeks of horse-trading as each potential governing force tries to pick up support from elsewhere, including from disillusioned Democrats who might be tempted to back the 5-Stars.
Renzi has said the Democrats must be the opposition to any 5-Star government.

PD needs to send this guy out of town...

[jaichind]

Based on the activities of Renzi either he is still de facto in charge of PD or if PD's new leadership forms an alliance with M5S then he will split PD.  Of course this prospect increases the bargaining power of both Lega and FI.

[SPQR]

Renzi is only staying in charge for the next few weeks in order to avoid a government with M5S.
Some amongst PD leaders would want that, quite foolishly.

[jaichind]

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2018/mar/06/italys-first-black-senator-elected-for-far-right-league-party-1783036.html

Italy's first black senator elected for far-right League party

[jaichind]

Renzi is only staying in charge for the next few weeks in order to avoid a government with M5S.
Some amongst PD leaders would want that, quite foolishly.

You are right.  I just read that Renzi told reporters Monday he would quit but only after a government had been formed.  Boy .. he must really hate M5S to go on as caretaker leader just to make sure PD does not form an alliance with M5S.  While I think it is a bad idea for PD to join up with MS5 it seems to me if Renzi quit he should just quit and let his successor come up with a vision forward.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why did PD win seats in Milan?

Firstly because the special Silvio Bonus in and around Milan is no more - his image is tarnished and his credibility shattered. And secondly because people with money and investments and therefore an interest in maintaining stability at all costs are about the only people who Renzi's PD ended up having much positive appeal for.

[MAINEiac4434]

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2018/mar/06/italys-first-black-senator-elected-for-far-right-league-party-1783036.html

Italy's first black senator elected for far-right League party

[Unironic Kamala Harris for President Supporter]

http://www.newindianexpress.com/world/2018/mar/06/italys-first-black-senator-elected-for-far-right-league-party-1783036.html

Italy's first black senator elected for far-right League party

You guys are racist for thinking someone can't hold a certain set of beliefs because of the color of their skin.

[Oryxslayer]

Depending on how much loyalty Renzi still commands, I wouldn't be surprised if the Left undergoes a reshuffling into a Pro-M5S and a anti-M5S camp.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just as a reminder:
LeU ran the most classic left-wing, Corbyn-like campaign (even stealing his motto and proposal on abolishing taxes on university) and got a whopping 3.3%.

So any analysis simply stating that "PD is not left anymore!1!1!!!1" might miss the point on what the Italian society is at the moment.

Yes, it's not about the rhetoric or symbolism particularly, but seeming to offer something relevant to say about the country's social problems. Which MS5 in their crack-addled way do, which Lega in their really gross and despicable way do.* Which none of the parties to the left of centre do - technocratic waffle about 'reform' and hollow nostalgia acts with imported slogans don't really cut it.

Or rather it's not about how left or not the PD is, but the fact that there's no real 'labour party' in Italian political life now, not even a weak one - a conscious choice made a while ago and an error that - mounts hobby horse! - led directly to the MS5 phenomenon.

Which is why as fun as it is to pile on Renzi, these are longterm problems: the entire strategy of the past twenty years was flawed, as I think everyone has known for some time, deep down. The issue I mentioned above has been a point of considerable concern to some observers for a long time. This is just a particularly brutal confirmation. But how to get out of this mess?

_{Obviously, obviously nothing either say would work out in practice, but that's not the issue here.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LeU did achieve their goal of getting Renzi to screw off forever, though.

Yes, if the goal was spite it was met.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-06/italy-s-populists-redraw-political-map-split-country-in-half

Have some good maps

[jaichind]

Silvio Berlusconi on Tuesday blamed his Forza Italia party's poor showing in Italy's general elections on the fact that he could not personally run for office due to a tax fraud conviction.

Also according to

https://www.diariodelweb.it/ultimora/notizie/?nid=20180306-1459

Salvini did not rule out center-right-M5S government

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Riddled with inaccuracies and paired with brainless captions?