Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

As much as I've defended Renzi in the past, he really, really needs to just f**k off now.

[EPG]

Noting the irony that SPD in Germany MUST NOT go into government as a minority partner, while PD MUST!

LeU is not really an far-left party. Apart from being a less useful vote than PD, there really wasn't much difference in the agenda. While it's impossible to know how a far-left party may have prospered, it would probably be (a) better than LeU and (b) not that great anyway, unless it was willing to take actions to remove foreigners from the country, which was clearly the #1 issue.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI


When the all votes will be counted? Are we waiting for diaspora votes?

[EPG]

Which is why as fun as it is to pile on Renzi, these are longterm problems: the entire strategy of the past twenty years was flawed, as I think everyone has known for some time, deep down. The issue I mentioned above has been a point of considerable concern to some observers for a long time. This is just a particularly brutal confirmation. But how to get out of this mess?

Here is a hint to the difficulty in getting out of the mess, which perhaps sounds harsh, but I am no more pro-the Italian right than you are. Number of people who formed a centre-left government in post-war Italy using centre-left parties as a vehicle: One.

[jaichind]

My best guess, without knowing very much, what will take place would be:

1) Center-Right Lega-FN minority government with Salvini as PM where PD abstains (50%)
2) M5S-PD government (25%)
3) M5S-Lega government (15%)
4) New elections (5%)
5) Some sort of uber grand coalition behind a technicart PM (5%)

[Sestak]

My best guess, without knowing very much, what will take place would be:

1) Center-Right Lega-FN minority government with Salvini as PM where PD abstains (50%)
2) M5S-PD government (25%)
3) M5S-Lega government (15%)
4) New elections (5%)
5) Some sort of uber grand coalition behind a technicart PM (5%)

If PD deliberately allows Salvini as PM to stop M5S they deserve to collapse.

[EPG]

I have a bizarre feeling this will end with M5S-Forza, at least for a while.

[Zuza]

My best guess, without knowing very much, what will take place would be:

1) Center-Right Lega-FN minority government with Salvini as PM where PD abstains (50%)
2) M5S-PD government (25%)
3) M5S-Lega government (15%)
4) New elections (5%)
5) Some sort of uber grand coalition behind a technicart PM (5%)

Why the chance of a new elections is so low?

[Oryxslayer]

My best guess, without knowing very much, what will take place would be:

1) Center-Right Lega-FN minority government with Salvini as PM where PD abstains (50%)
2) M5S-PD government (25%)
3) M5S-Lega government (15%)
4) New elections (5%)
5) Some sort of uber grand coalition behind a technicart PM (5%)

Why the chance of a new elections is so low?

1. Italian law allows for near unlimited time to negotiate coalitions, so there isn't any deadlines or anxiety over this process taking a while. Italy has been here before.

2. Italian parties come and go as they please, rather it tends to be the people and the personalities behind them that dominate politics. MPs will flip between parties, parties will cut and fracture, it is all normal. Hell, if the right did a little better, they could probably poach their way to a majority.

[TheSaint250]

I do believe that the most likely M5S-led government would be with PD, especially since the party is not particularly right-wing on economics (supports UBI, for one) and because many keft-wing voters crossed to vote for M5S. Also, M5S attracted support from those upset with the great amount of taxes, so aiding with PD might not look good.

Would someone mind explaining M5S’s economic views a little better? All I know is UBI and vague promises to cut taxes.

[Andrea]

Interior Ministry has finally assigned the Italians Abroad's seats even if they have not updated the final votes tally.

Anyway, at the House it is

Europe: 2 PD, 1 Lega/Forza Italia, 1 5 Stars, 1 +Europa

North America: 1 PD, 1 Forza Italia/Lega

South America: 1 MAEI, 1 USAI, 1 PD, 1 Forza Italia/Lega

Africa, Asia and Oceania: 1 PD

Senate:

Europe: 1 PD, 1 Lega/Forza Italia

North America: 1 Forza Italia/Lega

South America: 1 MAIE, 1 USEI

Africa, Asia and Oceania: 1 PD

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

My best guess, without knowing very much, what will take place would be:

1) Center-Right Lega-FN minority government with Salvini as PM where PD abstains (50%)
2) M5S-PD government (25%)
3) M5S-Lega government (15%)
4) New elections (5%)
5) Some sort of uber grand coalition behind a technicart PM (5%)

If PD deliberately allows Salvini as PM to stop M5S they deserve to collapse.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Oryxslayer]

Mind sticking the name of the cities over the cutouts? For the main 'tricolor' map it was obvious which city was which but if one didn't see said map, it might be hard to tell where the zoom-ins are on the mono-color party maps.

[jaichind]

The leader of the Lega, Matteo Salvini, should be the next Italian prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi said in an interview on Wednesday.  "We will loyally support Salvini's attempt to form a government. I am convinced that I will succeed: On my part [...] I will be there to support him."

[jaichind]

Ipsos poll for TV station La7

32% prefer Five Star alliance with League 
29% want Five Star backed by PD 
16% want Center-right backed by PD

40% say Five Star’s Luigi Di Maio should be given mandate to form government
23% prefer a technocrat
21% League’s Matteo Salvini

51% say Italy will go to new elections

[augbell]

This is so weird that the League wins some constituencies in the south. They change their name and their positions, but until recently they delivered populist anti-southern speeches

[Illiniwek]

This is so weird that the League wins some constituencies in the south. They change their name and their positions, but until recently they delivered populist anti-southern speeches

I think they played it off as saying the south, as every region would, would be better off if given more autonomy.

[palandio]

This is so weird that the League wins some constituencies in the south. They change their name and their positions, but until recently they delivered populist anti-southern speeches

The League did not win any constituencies in the south.

CoD Campania 2-10 (Agropoli) went to Marzia Ferraioli (Forza Italia),
CoD Calabria 06 (Vibo Valentia) went to Wanda Ferro (Brothers of Italy),
CoD Calabria 07 (Gioia Tauro) went to Francesco Cannizzaro (Forza Italia),
Senate Calabria 04 (Reggio di Calabria) went to Marco Siclari (Forza Italia).

I was surprised, too, that the League got 5% or more in basically all of the South outside Naples. But they did not win any constituencies.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[parochial boy]

Not sure if this has already been asked, but any reason for the particular M5S along the Adriatic coast? I don't think this is anywhere near as poor as thé mezzo giorno. I would mostly associate it with tourist resorts like Rimini?

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/italy-s-league-is-said-to-reach-out-to-renzi-s-party-for-votes

Italy's League Is Said to Reach Out to Renzi's Party for Votes

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[MAINEiac4434]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/italy-s-league-is-said-to-reach-out-to-renzi-s-party-for-votes

Italy's League Is Said to Reach Out to Renzi's Party for Votes

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If the PD allows someone as morally repugnant as Salvini to become Premier, then they're killing their own party.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

If PD does that they'll collapse extremely quickly.