Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[jaichind]

If PD does that they'll collapse extremely quickly.

To be fair we are talking about a PD split where a pro-Lega faction comes out of PD to form an political force that will back a Lega government.  What is being discussed is not the entire PD backing a Lega government although I think that is a real if not likely possibility.   

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Decided to do a fully proportional thing. Keep in mind this was before the Italians Abroad votes came in, so it may be slightly different with them. I grouped together those on the far-left and far-right because idk.

Far-Left Bloc: 10 seats
For a Revolutionary Italy: 1 seat
Communist Party: 2 seats
Power to the People!: 7 seats

Free and Equal: 21 seats

Center-left coalition: 144 seats
SVP-PATT: 3 Seats
Popular civic list: 3 seats
Together: 4 seats
Europe+: 16 seats
Democratic Party: 118 seats

5 Star Movement: 206 seats

Other/unknown: 7 seats
Human Worth Party: 1 seat
10 times better: 1 seat
People of Family: 4 seats
Italian Republican Party-ALA: 1 seat


Center-right: 233 seats
Lega: 110 Seats
Forza Italia: 88 seats
Us with Italy: 8 seats
Brothers of Italy: 27 seats

Far-right bloc: 8 seats
Italy for Italians: 2 seats
CasaPound Italy: 6 seats


1 seat short, because of smaller party vote share. not sure who to give it to.

[Sestak]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-08/italy-s-league-is-said-to-reach-out-to-renzi-s-party-for-votes

Italy's League Is Said to Reach Out to Renzi's Party for Votes

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If the PD allows someone as morally repugnant as Salvini to become Premier, then they're killing their own party.

Yeah.

This is the equivalent of centrist Democrats supporting Jeff Sessions over Bernie Sanders because Sessions is more establishment.

[Antonio the Sixth]

SWG polled PD voters on the possibilities for forming a government. 60% of them opposed supporting a M5S government, but 80% opposed supporting a Salvini government. It's not happening.

[EPG]

Why would you believe a Lega Nord (for that is their name) anonymous spokesman? They have every incentive to overtalk their own chances in an attempt to win the mandate to form a government. 35 to 40 lawmakers looks like as spurious a number as polls that report in decimal places, and remember that this needs to be across both houses.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huh, I didn't expect FI's electorate to still be so Southern given M5S's landslide there. Were they typically ahead of PD in the South?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Huh, I didn't expect FI's electorate to still be so Southern given M5S's landslide there. Were they typically ahead of PD in the South?

Yes and it wasn't even close in most places - the PD was obliterated in the South, which makes sense, all things considered.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Huh, I didn't expect FI's electorate to still be so Southern given M5S's landslide there. Were they typically ahead of PD in the South?

Yes and it wasn't even close in most places - the PD was obliterated in the South, which makes sense, all things considered.

Oh, splendid.

[CatoMinor]

How did the LN get any votes at all from south of the Po river? Isn't their official position that southern Italians are awful?

[MAINEiac4434]

How did the LN get any votes at all from south of the Po river? Isn't their official position that southern Italians are awful?

It used to be.

But they basically dropped the “Nord” from their name for the campaign and focused on anti-immigration and hard euroskepticism and right-populism. They no longer really care about their made-up country.

EDIT: article about the switch: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-20/italy-s-northern-league-is-suddenly-in-love-with-the-south

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For some reason Italia Europa Insieme polled 15% of the vote in San Luca. Does this reflect the popularity of the €500 note amongst the worthy citizens of this famously industrious town?

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-09/italy-s-five-star-is-said-to-mull-jobs-offer-in-bid-for-majority

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[Antonio the Sixth]

I should apologize to PittsburghSteel since it turns out that M5S-PD is in fact, a conceivable outcome (though it still probably won't happen).

In all likelihood, no one will agree with anyone and they'll go back to elections.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Among seniors, PD was the largest party, narrowly followed by M5S, then Forza, then Lega.
For every other age group, it was M5S > Lega > PD > Forza

The youth of Europe (and in Italy's case, even the middle aged) increasingly want nothing to do with neoliberalism. I expect PD to split between Renzi's supporters and a more traditional socialist left wing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I expect PD to split between Renzi's supporters and a more traditional socialist left wing.

LOL, PD doesn't have a "more traditional socialist left wing" and hasn't had one for a long time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I expect PD to split between Renzi's supporters and a more traditional socialist left wing.

LOL, PD doesn't have a "more traditional socialist left wing" and hasn't had one for a long time.

Yes, it has plenty of people who have an ironic liking for Communist iconography 'because Grandfather' but it would be quite an error to assume that indicates much...

[SPQR]

I should apologize to PittsburghSteel since it turns out that M5S-PD is in fact, a conceivable outcome (though it still probably won't happen).

In all likelihood, no one will agree with anyone and they'll go back to elections.

It's not conceivable, even though all of the Italian media and former left-wing intellectuals turned M5S activists are pushing for it (Repubblica and Corriere della Sera amongst newspapers, Zagrebelsky and his group, etc.)

As a local PD party chief (I guess that's the translation for dirigente?) I can assure you that 95% of those who are still in PD would revolt over this, and are already doing so.
There is a personal element of course - M5S and their supporters have insulted us in any possible way over the last 5 years.
But much more importantly, PD now needs to redefine its identity. Renzi has finally resigned, and hopefully now the internal discussion will not be "love him or hate him", but rather over what new course to take.
In the middle of all this, an alliance with a party with which we have no single common ground, as a minority partner, would simply annihilate us, as we would be seen as the "party of power", ready to drop any principle just to be in government.
We've already been responsible in 2011 when joining the Monti technical government and not asking for a snap election.
We've then been responsible from 2013 until today, with a grand coalition under Letta and then governing with Verdini and Alfano since we did not have a majority.
Now, after 7 years in which we could not govern by ourselves, we should AGAIN go in government, and now as a minority partner of a populist party, after voters have clearly told us to  off?
Pure madness.

[Former President tack50]

I wonder, how likely is a minority government? Are they common (or at least thinkable) in Italy?

Because a minority government from M5S wouldn't be that hard to form. They could pass budgets, economic reforms, etc with support from PD and inmigration and other social stuff with Lega.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey look, a map of Lazio support by division!

[Mazda]

"Show us on the doll where the Tiber touched you"

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Looks like Meloni's personal popularity played a role in Rome.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wonder, how likely is a minority government? Are they common (or at least thinkable) in Italy?

Because a minority government from M5S wouldn't be that hard to form. They could pass budgets, economic reforms, etc with support from PD and inmigration and other social stuff with Lega.

Minority governments with explicit outside support are possible (hell, the Monti government was technically a 0% government, in that none of its ministers hailed from a parliamentary party). Minority governments with no explicit majority are constitutionally impossible, since you need a confidence vote to start them.

[SPQR]

Looks like Meloni's personal popularity played a role in Rome.

The far-right has always been very strong in Rome, especially in the Northern part of the city (as confirmed by the map).

For the rest, the strongholds recall those of MSI: a few places in the South and in the North, especially Friuli (Tito's old memories...), but for the rest the bulk of its force is in Lazio.

It must be said that this time Lega also did extremely well amongst the same kind of electorate, even though it clearly fared much better.
For instance, in my municipality (southern part of Rome, which includes the uninominal seat won by PD that is the furthest south...quite sad) Lega and FdI were almost par in the more peripheric and right-wing areas, which FdI (and before then, AN) previously won comfortably in the center-right coalition.

[DC Al Fine]

Why has MSI/AN/FdL historically done so well in Lazio?