Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[CatoMinor]

If it is the choice of the President, a Sicilian, who gets first bid I would think it's fair to assume M5S is in better shape than The League, no?

[Antonio the Sixth]

If it is the choice of the President, a Sicilian, who gets first bid I would think it's fair to assume M5S is in better shape than The League, no?

Most Italian politicians don't think in these parochial terms, believe it or not. And Mattarella is a relic from an era where, whatever the other issues, people took their institutional role somewhat seriously.

[FrancoAgo]

If it is the choice of the President, a Sicilian, who gets first bid I would think it's fair to assume M5S is in better shape than The League, no?

the President will give at the people with a majority, if nobody will have a majority probably to the people backed to more MPs so atm positions to Salvini

[FrancoAgo]

I wonder, how likely is a minority government? Are they common (or at least thinkable) in Italy?

if i remember right we get only one, Andreotti III, in the 1976/8 they get the vote from DC and the abstention of near all the other

[FrancoAgo]

Minority governments with explicit outside support are possible (hell, the Monti government was technically a 0% government, in that none of its ministers hailed from a parliamentary party). Minority governments with no explicit majority are constitutionally impossible, since you need a confidence vote to start them.

Imho Monti government was not a minority government
He passed at Chamber with 556 yes and 61 no, and to the senate with 281 yes and 25 no
probably no partisan government is a better classification

[Antonio the Sixth]

Minority governments with explicit outside support are possible (hell, the Monti government was technically a 0% government, in that none of its ministers hailed from a parliamentary party). Minority governments with no explicit majority are constitutionally impossible, since you need a confidence vote to start them.

Imho Monti government was not a minority government
He passed at Chamber with 556 yes and 61 no, and to the senate with 281 yes and 25 no
probably no partisan government is a better classification

I know. I thought I'd been pretty clear on what I meant.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Map of gains and losses by coalition from 2013 to 2018. What's striking is how M5S had minimal gains and even some losses in the North, yet still were the big winners due to their domination of the South.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I was honestly surprised to find out how much M5S lost in Piedmont and Veneto. I guess it makes sense given that they probably got many disgruntled Lega voters in 2013, but still, these are relatively large losses. Besides, Appendino in Turin actually seems to be doing a good job, unlike Raggi, so if there was a big city I expected M5S to tank, it would have been Rome.

Also, ayy lmao at the left gaining in Milan.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Yeah, I was honestly surprised to find out how much M5S lost in Piedmont and Veneto. I guess it makes sense given that they probably got many disgruntled Lega voters in 2013, but still, these are relatively large losses. Besides, Appendino in Turin actually seems to be doing a good job, unlike Raggi, so if there was a big city I expected M5S to tank, it would have been Rome.

Also, ayy lmao at the left gaining in Milan.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/04/turin-five-star-movement-mayor-chiara-appendino

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, I was honestly surprised to find out how much M5S lost in Piedmont and Veneto. I guess it makes sense given that they probably got many disgruntled Lega voters in 2013, but still, these are relatively large losses. Besides, Appendino in Turin actually seems to be doing a good job, unlike Raggi, so if there was a big city I expected M5S to tank, it would have been Rome.

Also, ayy lmao at the left gaining in Milan.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/04/turin-five-star-movement-mayor-chiara-appendino

Ugh, great. Then there really is no hope that a Di Maio government nationally will turn out any better.

[EPG]

Hey look, a map of Lazio support by division!

Well, striking that southern support for MSI/DN/AN is gone.

Why has MSI/AN/FdL historically done so well in Lazio?

It started with the relatively mild experience of war, occupation and liberation in Rome itself. Then postwar nostalgia among civil servants and upper-class people connected to central government, then anti-corruption anger at the democratic parties.

[Tender Branson]

M5S and the CentroDestra coalition should just form a grand coalition and get it over with.

That's what Italians voted for and what they want. A coalition of winners.

Maybe they get some things done (lol) and people will become less pessimistic over the years as a result.

The PD and other small leftist parties should go into opposition and restructure.

PS: Antonio, plz remove your signature. It's not working.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hey look, a map of Lazio support by division!

Well, striking that southern support for MSI/DN/AN is gone.

There are some vague echoes in places where they used to be extremely strong, but, yeah. And not just in the south do we see historically interesting (relative) underperformance - they polled notably worse in the Fascist-era New Towns on the former Pontine marshes than in Rome itself, which is not normal. Very poor results as well in Trieste and Bolzano - they finished behind CasaPound in the latter lmao...

[DC Al Fine]

Also, ayy lmao at the left gaining in Milan.

I don't quite understand. Is this due to Berlusconi's disgrace, or is it sort of like if the Democrats made big gains in well to do suburbs while losing to Trump in a landslide?

[SPQR]

Also, ayy lmao at the left gaining in Milan.

I don't quite understand. Is this due to Berlusconi's disgrace, or is it sort of like if the Democrats made big gains in well to do suburbs while losing to Trump in a landslide?

PD won in the affluent city centres in all the cities in Center-Northern Italy, while losing, to various degrees, in the more impoverished suburbs.
Also, Milan's the more internationally integrated city in Italy, with the economy going well. PD has elected the last two mayors and even Gori, the losing candidate for Lombardia's governor by 25 points, managed to win in Milan.

[palandio]

Milan has been shifting to the left for quite some time. E.g. in 2011 it elected left-winger Giuliano Pisapia as mayor, succeeded by center-left Giuseppe Sala in 2016. This would have been unthinkable during Berlusconi's best times. I think that this can be attributed both to Berlusconi's star fading and to societal changes.

The relatively strong center-left results in the recent election are not limited to Milan, but can be observed in most Northern cities. And it's mostly the more central and affluent quarters, while the traditional working-class strongholds show steep declines. I think that a part of this has to do with Renzi being more attractive to certain voters than e.g. some ex-commie like Bersani. And keep in mind that in 2013 there was Civic Choice with Mario Monti. I'm pretty sure that many Monti voters went with Renzi. (Some exit polls say otherwise, but I think that they're crap.)

Just to name an example: Castelletto is a quarter of Genoa on the slopes over the city center. It is one of the richest quarters and also traditionally one of the most conservative. In 2013 it was Monti's best area in the city and now in 2018 it was the center-left's stronghold. All the traditional left-wing strongholds in the Western part of the city like Voltri(-grad) and Sestri, where in two-way races the center-left would get up to 70% of the vote, have now less than 30% for the center-left, while the center-left is at 38.4% in Castelletto. It's a realignment of shocking dimensions.

(+ what Worried Italian Progressive said)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't want to coem across all PAN EUROPEAN TRENDS, but it is interesting to note that almost all cities - even ones considered quite borgeois and right-wing like Stockholm, Oslo, Milan, Rekjavik, Madrid - seem to be drifting left?

[parochial boy]

I don't want to coem across all PAN EUROPEAN TRENDS, but it is interesting to note that almost all cities - even ones considered quite borgeois and right-wing like Stockholm, Oslo, Milan, Rekjavik, Madrid - seem to be drifting left?

I mean, the same economic factors that have been driving those sorts of trends (economic concentration around certain big metros, Housing costs, a higly educated but downwardly mobile youth population) exists pretty much all across Europe so it isn't such a controversial thing to say.

What's interesting to me is on the one hand, how certain types of cities (Naples, Le Havre) havent trended left. On the other hand, it was interesting to see how Paris reacted to Macron and London to Corbyn respectively, which sort of shows how "big cities are becoming more left wing" disguises a lot of much more complex factors

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Italian social geography is a little bit different to what's normal further north, so things are not quite what they might seem at first. Mark what palandio points out: the 'Left' just polled historically dreadful results in working class districts and banlieues across Italy, which is... er...

[jaichind]

PD Acting leader Maurizio Martina insists on being in the opposition.

[TheSaint250]

When are the coalition talks gonna begin?

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-13/italy-s-league-seeks-rival-lawmakers-votes-but-won-t-offer-jobs

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[Lord Halifax]

Italian social geography is a little bit different to what's normal further north, so things are not quite what they might seem at first.

In what way?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

odd map

[palandio]

odd map

In which way?

LeU is stronger in traditionally left-leaning areas and in the cities. Only Bari is strange, because Emiliano is still in the PD.

Regarding Genoa: As I expected LeU are strongest in the historic city center (which sociologically is very, ehrm, mixed). Apart from that its support is relatively evenly distributed, being slightly above average in some of the old PCI/DS strongholds. Altogether the LeU voting pattern is less "radical chic" than the PD voting pattern, which quite surprised me.