Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Gross, my family is from Molise.

[Diouf]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election."

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election."

[jaichind]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election."

But if PD becomes a junior partner to M5S then I can see PD level of popular support falling over time as PD support will move to M5S or Center-Right bloc.  Of course if there is another election right away it would be a Center-Right bloc vs M5S choice election and PD would do worse but then they will live to fight another day in opposition.

[Diouf]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election."

But if PD becomes a junior partner to M5S then I can see PD level of popular support falling over time as PD support will move to M5S or Center-Right bloc.  Of course if there is another election right away it would be a Center-Right bloc vs M5S choice election and PD would do worse but then they will live to fight another day in opposition.

Yes, PD will have problems in many different scenarios. However, it would make sense to me, if there's a part of the PD that sees this as an option to actually make some left-wing reforms after being tied to the centre-right in previous governments. I know there's a deeply personal dislike between many persons in the two parties which can easily cause negotiations to fall, but if the alternative is the centre-right, flat tax etc, it might be possible to convince enough people in the PD.

[EPG]

It's not as if there is any spare money for the PD to get some concessions, from either left or right.

Meanwhile, some people still genuinely think basic income is coming to southern Italy.

[Sestak]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election."

C'mon PD, take the deal

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2018/04/23/fico-gets-mandate-for-m5s-pd-deal-5_21beac37-4f7d-4556-aaf8-107413d11e6d.html

Am I like the only person who noticed that Salvini just said that he in some circumstances would do what Mussolini did decades ago? This was on purpose or he just threatened with manifestations and protests and not with coup? I know that in Italy there is some sort of nostalgia concerned fascist Kingdom of Italy but cmon.

[DavidB.]

Extremely disappointing that M5S-Lega will not happen; still unclear to me why this is the case and who is to blame. Any ideas?

[jaichind]

Extremely disappointing that M5S-Lega will not happen; still unclear to me why this is the case and who is to blame. Any ideas?

I think the experience of SPD in Germany has taught that any major party that becomes the junior partner in a ruling coalition always loses and continue to lose votes.  Both parties must have learned that lesson and would refuse to join a coalition unless they are the top dog.

[Former President tack50]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election.

C'mon PD, take the deal

Agreed, an M5S-PD-(LeU) deal would probably be really good and it wouldn't do much harm to PD. Definitely less than some sort of grand coalition with the right.

If they fear the far left coming for them, try to get LeU to join as well. If they fear that they'll be tied to all the government's mistakes, make it a minority government with support for the budget and stuff.

Why wouldn't PD go for that? What would they have to concede to M5S? Harsher inmigration laws? Good, that's a losing cause for the left. A slightly less pro EU stance? Still a lot better than what Lega would have offered.

At the very least if they don't want to join a government they should at least push for an M5S minority government.

[TheSaint250]

It's pretty interesting to see populist parties like M5S and ANO possibly end up siding with the center-left and left-wing (PD and LeU in Italy, ČSSD and KSČM in Czechia)

[Diouf]

Extremely disappointing that M5S-Lega will not happen; still unclear to me why this is the case and who is to blame. Any ideas?

Both of them really wants to be PM, and both of them are not very eager to make compromises. Di Maio has another door open in the potential deal with PD, which is obviously not possible for a Lega-led centre-right. Still quite possible with a new electoral law that gives an absolute majority to the winning bloc, which I think both of them would really like (at least at the moment where they look like being the two competitors). If there is to be a coalition, it is pretty obvious that Salvini needs to budge and accept to play the second fiddle.

And that is ofc before going into all the structural problems in terms of policy disagreements, many M5S voters regard themselves as quite leftist etc.

[FrancoAgo]

Extremely disappointing that M5S-Lega will not happen; still unclear to me why this is the case and who is to blame. Any ideas?

For the M5S it's not possible a alliance with Forza Italia/Berlusconi, Salvini do not want broke the alliance with FI

[TheSaint250]

Welp

Italy’s 5Stars call for new election

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[Sestak]

I hope PD voters see sense and jump ship for M5S. Stop Salvini!

[Oryxslayer]

Welp

Italy’s 5Stars call for new election

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If M5S can't get the left or the right to work, then the only option is Right+Left. I guess we will see what the results of that will be soon...

[Andrea]

Friuli Venezia Giulia regional elections held yesterday

Centre-right 57.1% (Lega 34.9, FI 12.1)
PD and allies 26.8%
5 Stars 11,7%
a local list 4.4%

Turnout: 49.7%

At House elections last month:

Centre-right 43% (Lega 25.9 FI 10.7)
5 Stars 24.6%
PD and allies 23%
Free and Equals 3.2%

turnout 75.12%

[MAINEiac4434]

5 Stars already collapsing...

[Diouf]

5 Stars already collapsing...

Increased incentive for them to do a deal and not take a new election?

[Oryxslayer]

5 Stars already collapsing...

Increased incentive for them to do a deal and not take a new election?

I think M5S would take any deal that makes them the leader of Government, but nobody wants to make one. The Right surprisingly in un-Italian tradition won't break up, and won't do a deal where they don't lead. The Left meanwhile has become more internationalist and Pro-EU under the past administration, and has successfully mmarshalled itself against either populist party. If M5S wants to avoid new elections, then their only option is bitting the bullet and become the rights junior partner. Or maybe something new will emerge.

Right now, new elections probably benefit the right, and forza. The Right probably gains as a whole, judging from post-election numbers. More Right seats in the south from their gains benefit forza over lega, perhaps giving Forza control of the senate coalition.

[SPQR]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election.

C'mon PD, take the deal

Agreed, an M5S-PD-(LeU) deal would probably be really good and it wouldn't do much harm to PD. Definitely less than some sort of grand coalition with the right.

If they fear the far left coming for them, try to get LeU to join as well. If they fear that they'll be tied to all the government's mistakes, make it a minority government with support for the budget and stuff.

Why wouldn't PD go for that? What would they have to concede to M5S? Harsher inmigration laws? Good, that's a losing cause for the left. A slightly less pro EU stance? Still a lot better than what Lega would have offered.

At the very least if they don't want to join a government they should at least push for an M5S minority government.

M5S cannot be trusted, that's the simple truth.
They are a movement with no internal rules whatsover, whose program has been changed overnight after being voted by its members, in order to facilitate forming a government.
For years they've built on anti-establishment politics, and now they're trying to form a government with PD (my party) only in order to go to power and have somebody to give to the crowd when things go wrong (and they will go wrong, with M5S in power).

PD has lost the elections and the voters have clearly rejected its message, based mostly on what it has done in government in these last years.
Why should it join a government with M5S? To cancel the laws that PD itself passed recently, such as the Jobs Act or the education reform?
Or based on some contract citing points such as "reducing poverty", "sustainable growth", etc etc, which mean nothing at all.


PD now needs to reconstruct itself and it can only do that by opposing all populist governments. Voters have given M5S and Lega more than 50% of votes and deputies, that's it. It would be foolish to "limit the damage caused by the voters", not allowing for those who won to actually show what they can do once in power.

It's better to get 15% at the next snap elections than be completely annihilated after one year of government with M5S.

[SPQR]

I hope PD voters see sense and jump ship for M5S. Stop Salvini!

They're not that different.
Don't be fooled by labels.

[Tender Branson]

Italy's President has just announced the failure to create a new government.

New elections imminent.

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https://www.ft.com/content/fe747d32-520f-11e8-b24e-cad6aa67e23e

Poor Italians. They elected a new parliament that works and not for stagnation. I think this will only increase the share of the Lega and M5S, but the bloc results will remain largely the same. And after the elections, they will be in the same crappy situation again ...

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