Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Sestak]

WELP

[jaichind]

What Mattarella seem to propose is a 'Neutral' Government to rule until 2019.  He stressed that its leaders wouldn't be allowed to run in the election next year.  I guess what he is saying is another election in 2018 would be too disruptive.

[Diouf]

It seems that there is movement in the centre-right bloc. As I understand Salvini is ready to give up being PM, while Berlusconi is open to not vote against a M5S-Lega government. Further negotiations should be ongoing; Salvini apparently doing them from his seat at the Coppa Italia final

[EPG]

Now Forza is #2 centro-destra, did they threaten Salvini with new elections and no coalition, with undoubted mandate for M5S? Will Berlusconi help M5S-Lega from outside, like PD-NCD?

[Tender Branson]

After the threat of new elections in recent days or a caretaker government, Italians now apparently get what they voted for: a M5S-Lega government.

Italy's Berlusconi gives green light to 5-Star/League government

ROME (Reuters) - Italy’s former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi on Wednesday gave the green light to his ally the League to try to form a government with the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement, but said his own party would not support the coalition.

His announcement could open the way for a new government to take office within days, ending nine weeks of political stalemate in Italy following inconclusive March elections.

5-Star has offered to forge a coalition with the far-right League on condition it abandons its long-time partner Berlusconi. League leader Matteo Salvini has refused to do that without the approval of his veteran ally.

“It certainly won’t be us who imposes vetoes,” Berlusconi said in a statement, adding that although he would not support this new coalition in parliament, his partnership with the League would still continue at a local level.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-berlusconi/italys-berlusconi-gives-green-light-to-5-star-league-government-idUSKBN1IA35C

[Oryxslayer]

Berlusconi has been rehabilitated - he can run for what remains of Forza next (snap?) election.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/995753087330607104?s=19

So either Lega voters really don't like this alliance, or M5S isn't all in. I suspect a collapse before December.

[EPG]

Looks like an arrangement Renzi was right not to touch, correct?

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like an arrangement Renzi was right not to touch, correct?

The PD would have hated that alliance, but M5S wouldn't - their voters are more left then right. Maybe it would have lasted longer.

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/YanniKouts/status/996001064083251200

lol

[palandio]

"Nothing can keep out of my head that the Five Stars Movement were an American and Israeli invention to influence our politics. An attempt that later slipped out of their hand."

Holy sh*t, Prof. Sapelli!

[swl]

The two parties finalized the coalition agreement and now the M5S militants have 3 days to vote on it online (it doesn't say what happens if they reject it). The Lega will also organized an "offline" vote for its militants.

Full areement in Italian: http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2018/05/18/news/contratto_di_governo_ecco_il_testo_finale-196704873/?ref=RHPPLF-BH-I0-C8-P1-S1.8-T1

[Tender Branson]

M5S+Lega have concluded their coalition talks today and announced a full agreement on PM and all other cabinet members (the new PM's name was not mentioned today).

They will present their coaltion contract and cabinet to the President of Italy tomorrow.

Meanwhile, M5S party members voted with 90%+ for the coalition contract. Lega-members are also likely to approve by a wide margin.

http://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/politica/2018/05/20/governo-giornata-decisiva-faccia-a-faccia-di-maio-salvini_cf5eef65-5017-4607-8983-da0c92951e49.html

[Tender Branson]

Here are some key points of their coalition contract:

* Flat Tax: With two tax rates of 15 and 20 percent for individuals and families and 15 percent for businesses, the coalition partners hope to boost economic growth. Next year's planned increase in value added tax (IVA) in the amount of 12.5 billion euros will be cancelled. Tax evasion and the shadow economy are to be combated.

* Basic income: 780 euros for each person in need provides the model of the minimum income that the coalition partners want to introduce. Unemployed people should, however, have to commit themselves to attend training courses and accept job offers, otherwise they will lose the minimum income.

* Pension reform: The amendment to the 2011 pension reform, which abolished early retirement by the then Monti government, is a cornerstone of the government's program. The Italians should be allowed to retire again after 41 years of contributions and not only at the age of 67 years. That should cost up to 15 billion euros. Pensioners should receive at least 780 euros per month.

* Revision of the EU Treaties: The government intends to work for an amendment to the EU fiscal compact "for Italy to regain its sovereignty".

* Immigration and security: Italy wants to work for a reform of the Dublin agreement. The deportation procedures are to be intensified and the fight against human trafficking to be tightened. Radical Islamic associations and prayer places are to be closed. Planned is a register of imams. New jobs are planned for the police.

* Foreign policy: The new government wants Brussels to lift the sanctions against Russia. The Italian defense industry should be promoted.

* Social Issues: It is planned to introduce a ministry that looks after the needs of disabled people.

* Reduction of political costs: Privileges of politicians should be reduced. The use of service cars and state flights and police escorts for politicians should be severely restricted and politicians' pensions limited to a maximum of 5,000 euros per month.

[DavidB.]

It's not an actual basic income, more like a regular welfare benefits program for the poor.

The M5S-Lega program is definitely original and probably represents the direction the majority of Italians want to go in, away from the status-quo. I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt for now. At the same time, it is regrettable that northern EU member states will likely end up bearing the financial consequences if Rome's anti-austerity experiment, which I am otherwise not even unsympathetic to, goes wrong. I am all for Italian sovereignty, more than is currently the case, but I am afraid any next government that has to clean up the mess will start begging in Berlin, The Hague, Vienna and Helsinki again.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the Lega hits a new record high (25.4%) in the latest IPSOS poll - now polling higher than the FPÖ. M5S+Lega now have 58% support (+8% compared with the election):

[rob in cal]

  I like the idea of more national fiscal autonomy for the member states of the EU, though whether these economic choices are wise is another matter. It will be interesting to see if these lead to a big jump in the deficit, and whether at some point a euro-referendum will reenter the discussion.

[jaichind]

Italy's Populists Seek New Premier Amid Euro Warning

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-20/italy-s-populists-seek-new-premier-amid-french-warning-on-euro

Seems like  Florence University law professor Giuseppe Conte might be the candidate of the new ruling coalition.

[jaichind]

Will FdI be part of the government?  I assume FI will support it from the outside. 

[Sestak]

Hooray, another anti-freedom of religion European government! As if they don't already have enough.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The sooner the Right-wing populist parties take power, the sooner they fail and lose their seats. Let's get on with it.

[King of Kensington]

Here are some key points of their coalition contract:

* Flat Tax: With two tax rates of 15 and 20 percent for individuals and families and 15 percent for businesses, the coalition partners hope to boost economic growth. Next year's planned increase in value added tax (IVA) in the amount of 12.5 billion euros will be cancelled. Tax evasion and the shadow economy are to be combated.

* Basic income: 780 euros for each person in need provides the model of the minimum income that the coalition partners want to introduce. Unemployed people should, however, have to commit themselves to attend training courses and accept job offers, otherwise they will lose the minimum income.

* Pension reform: The amendment to the 2011 pension reform, which abolished early retirement by the then Monti government, is a cornerstone of the government's program. The Italians should be allowed to retire again after 41 years of contributions and not only at the age of 67 years. That should cost up to 15 billion euros. Pensioners should receive at least 780 euros per month.

* Revision of the EU Treaties: The government intends to work for an amendment to the EU fiscal compact "for Italy to regain its sovereignty".

* Immigration and security: Italy wants to work for a reform of the Dublin agreement. The deportation procedures are to be intensified and the fight against human trafficking to be tightened. Radical Islamic associations and prayer places are to be closed. Planned is a register of imams. New jobs are planned for the police.

* Foreign policy: The new government wants Brussels to lift the sanctions against Russia. The Italian defense industry should be promoted.

* Social Issues: It is planned to introduce a ministry that looks after the needs of disabled people.

* Reduction of political costs: Privileges of politicians should be reduced. The use of service cars and state flights and police escorts for politicians should be severely restricted and politicians' pensions limited to a maximum of 5,000 euros per month.

So I guess this is what you get in a coalition between a hard right populist "Italy for Italians" party and a "neither left or right" populist "Italy for Italians" party.

[Tender Branson]

A new Demos poll for the "Repubblica" newspaper shows voters (especially those of the M5S and Lega) lining up behind the government, with 60% now approving of the new government:

"Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the coming M5S+Lega government ?"

60% favourable
36% unfavourable



By party:



Salvini (Lega) is now also the most popular politician in Italy (except the President):



Vote in a future election:

[Tender Branson]

The sooner the Right-wing populist parties take power, the sooner they fail and lose their seats. Let's get on with it.

Not if they are somewhat competent in government, such as FrP in Norway, the FPÖ in Austria right now, Fidesz in Hungary or the PiS in Poland ...

[Tender Branson]

Lega party members also approved the coalition contract with 91% of the vote over the weekend.