Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Diouf]

DavidB is right that "Basic Income" is quite a spin to put on a programme with welfare benefits and conditions. The whole definition of basic income is income without conditions. From what I can read, this will primarily favour the young, unemployed since current welfare benefits are primarily based on previous employment. So the young, unemployed does not currently have much of a safety net.

Is there any measures aimed at actually getting funds in to the state coffers or are we going for dynamic effects, more growth etc.? I mean, a significant reduction of non-western immigration and deportation of illegals will certainly be a benefit economically, but that would mostly show in the long run. In the short run, it will probably require investments to carry out these policies after the negligence of the PD-led government.

[DavidB.]

The sooner the Right-wing populist parties take power, the sooner they fail and lose their seats. Let's get on with it.

Lol. The Danish People's Party, which has basically been in power for a grand total of 13 years or so since 2001, says hi -- and so does the Lega itself. Some right-wing populist parties do collapse after a stint in government, but they often get back up after a while (Lega, FPÖ) or are otherwise replaced by a new movement, often further to the right. There is simply a big electoral "market" for these kinds of parties in almost all Western European countries, and demand is only increasing.

[parochial boy]

The sooner the Right-wing populist parties take power, the sooner they fail and lose their seats. Let's get on with it.

Lol. The Danish People's Party, which has basically been in power for a grand total of 15 years since 2001, says hi -- and so does the Lega itself. Some right-wing populist parties do collapse after a stint in government, but they often get back up after a while (Lega, FPÖ) or are otherwise replaced by a new movement, often further to the right. There is simply a big electoral "market" for these kinds of parties in almost all Western European countries, and demand is only increasing.

Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first experience of a RWPP led coalition* in Western Europe (which is probably enough of a difference to ex-Communist Europe to be worth remarking on).

Also, it's Italy, of course it'll be a disaster...

*Let's ignore what exactly M5S are supposed to be for the time being

[DavidB.]

The sooner the Right-wing populist parties take power, the sooner they fail and lose their seats. Let's get on with it.

Lol. The Danish People's Party, which has basically been in power for a grand total of 15 years since 2001, says hi -- and so does the Lega itself. Some right-wing populist parties do collapse after a stint in government, but they often get back up after a while (Lega, FPÖ) or are otherwise replaced by a new movement, often further to the right. There is simply a big electoral "market" for these kinds of parties in almost all Western European countries, and demand is only increasing.

Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first experience of a RWPP led coalition* in Western Europe (which is probably enough of a difference to ex-Communist Europe to be worth remarking on).

Also, it's Italy, of course it'll be a disaster...

*Let's ignore what exactly M5S are supposed to be for the time being

I don't really view M5S as an RRWP because I don't think they fit all of the three characteristics as laid out by Cas Mudde: M5S are populist, but I don't think they are sufficiently authoritiarian or nativist to be considered one. And a coalition completely consisting of populist, anti-austerity, anti-"Brussels" parties with an RRWP as a junior partner isn't anything new; Syriza-ANEL is one too.

To be sure, I think chances of (support for) M5S collapsing in the process are reasonably high. But the mechanism set out by PittsburghSteel, according to which Western European RRWPs always collapse when they are in power, is a common misunderstanding and I wanted to rebuke it. I agree that the Italian coalition is a big experiment with a big chance of failing and losing popularity.

[rob in cal]

  If the new government does a halfway decent job on the immigration front (say actually doing a significant level of deportations, and keeping the  trend of less migration from the med route on a downward slope) I would think that would shore up support on the right, even if some of the financial proposals turn kind of trainwreckish.

[parochial boy]

The sooner the Right-wing populist parties take power, the sooner they fail and lose their seats. Let's get on with it.

Lol. The Danish People's Party, which has basically been in power for a grand total of 15 years since 2001, says hi -- and so does the Lega itself. Some right-wing populist parties do collapse after a stint in government, but they often get back up after a while (Lega, FPÖ) or are otherwise replaced by a new movement, often further to the right. There is simply a big electoral "market" for these kinds of parties in almost all Western European countries, and demand is only increasing.

Correct me if I am wrong, but this is the first experience of a RWPP led coalition* in Western Europe (which is probably enough of a difference to ex-Communist Europe to be worth remarking on).

Also, it's Italy, of course it'll be a disaster...

*Let's ignore what exactly M5S are supposed to be for the time being

I don't really view M5S as an RRWP because I don't think they fit all of the three characteristics as laid out by Cas Mudde: M5S are populist, but I don't think they are sufficiently authoritiarian or nativist to be considered one. And a coalition completely consisting of populist, anti-austerity, anti-"Brussels" parties with an RRWP as a junior partner isn't anything new; Syriza-ANEL is one too.

To be sure, I think chances of (support for) M5S collapsing in the process are reasonably high. But the mechanism set out by PittsburghSteel, according to which Western European RRWPs always collapse when they are in power, is a common misunderstanding and I wanted to rebuke it. I agree that the Italian coalition is a big experiment with a big chance of failing and losing popularity.

Without wanting to get into a debate on semantics, "authoritarian" seems like a funny term, especially when applied to parties like FvD or KrF that might normally be classified as RWPP? Mind expanding on what he means by authoritarian?

With M5S, they are basically all things to everyone, but being in the EFDD group does tend to colour my perception

[DavidB.]

Without wanting to get into a debate on semantics, "authoritarian" seems like a funny term, especially when applied to parties like FvD or KrF that might normally be classified as RWPP? Mind expanding on what he means by authoritarian?

Mudde summarizes it in this Vox interview:

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I am not sure where your examples come from. Dutch FVD is most definitely an RRWP, this is not controversial among political scientists. They are ideologically very comparable to parties like German AfD and Austrian FPÖ, even more so than the PVV. Norwegian KrF most definitely isn't an RRWP, it's a relatively standard run-off-the-mill Christian Democratic party with some left-Christian tendencies. Or do you mean Norwegian Frp? There is some debate about their status as an RRWP, as they would clearly be among the most "light" ones.

M5S are in EFD mainly because they had to be somewhere; I believe they were rejected in a couple of other groups.

  If the new government does a halfway decent job on the immigration front (say actually doing a significant level of deportations, and keeping the  trend of less migration from the med route on a downward slope) I would think that would shore up support on the right, even if some of the financial proposals turn kind of trainwreckish.

I think it's not unlikely that the Lega end up reaping the benefits of this cooperation, because voters knew what they would get. M5S were incredibly vague and are bound to disappoint a certain percentage of their voters. The M5S leadership themselves probably don't even agree on what they want.

[parochial boy]

Lol yes,FrP, that's what you get for being functionally illiterate. What I meant was, I understood authoritarian as meaning personality cultish like an Orban, Erdogan or even a Mélenchon; which a lot pf RWPPs actually aren't

[EPG]

Here are some key points of their coalition contract:

* Flat Tax: With two tax rates of 15 and 20 percent for individuals and families and 15 percent for businesses, the coalition partners hope to boost economic growth. Next year's planned increase in value added tax (IVA) in the amount of 12.5 billion euros will be cancelled. Tax evasion and the shadow economy are to be combated.

* Basic income: 780 euros for each person in need provides the model of the minimum income that the coalition partners want to introduce. Unemployed people should, however, have to commit themselves to attend training courses and accept job offers, otherwise they will lose the minimum income.

* Pension reform: The amendment to the 2011 pension reform, which abolished early retirement by the then Monti government, is a cornerstone of the government's program. The Italians should be allowed to retire again after 41 years of contributions and not only at the age of 67 years. That should cost up to 15 billion euros. Pensioners should receive at least 780 euros per month.

* Revision of the EU Treaties: The government intends to work for an amendment to the EU fiscal compact "for Italy to regain its sovereignty".

* Immigration and security: Italy wants to work for a reform of the Dublin agreement. The deportation procedures are to be intensified and the fight against human trafficking to be tightened. Radical Islamic associations and prayer places are to be closed. Planned is a register of imams. New jobs are planned for the police.

* Foreign policy: The new government wants Brussels to lift the sanctions against Russia. The Italian defense industry should be promoted.

* Social Issues: It is planned to introduce a ministry that looks after the needs of disabled people.

* Reduction of political costs: Privileges of politicians should be reduced. The use of service cars and state flights and police escorts for politicians should be severely restricted and politicians' pensions limited to a maximum of 5,000 euros per month.

There is no money for any more than 1 of this, and nobody in Europe will listen to a government that wants to quit the euro / EU. I know the Eurointelligence writers read this site, so they probably have the cash figures. Anyway, they suggested a parallel currency plan is also included, i.e. tantamount to euro exit.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

When PD is going to elect its new leader? Are there any politicians who announced their will to participate in leader elections as a candidate?

[rob in cal]

  This parallel currency idea is really revolutionary. If it somehow gets a foothold and actually works, it would be an example for other countries as well.
  It doesn't seem there is too much opposition from 5star supporters or politicians to this alliance with a so called far-right party. One would think that maybe those who used to be supporters of left leaning parties might not like it, but perhaps the signature issues of the League, such as an immigration reduction policy resonate with a big chunk of the electorate of most parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

  If the new government does a halfway decent job on the immigration front (say actually doing a significant level of deportations, and keeping the  trend of less migration from the med route on a downward slope) I would think that would shore up support on the right, even if some of the financial proposals turn kind of trainwreckish.

Immigration is a tricky issue though. It's easier to make noises than implement policy... or rather... implement policy that you know will have the desired effect. After a certain point the risk is of running an electoral scam, which can work for quite a while but o/c when the electorate figures out they've been had... what then?

[Lord Halifax]

  If the new government does a halfway decent job on the immigration front (say actually doing a significant level of deportations, and keeping the  trend of less migration from the med route on a downward slope) I would think that would shore up support on the right, even if some of the financial proposals turn kind of trainwreckish.

Immigration is a tricky issue though. It's easier to make noises than implement policy... or rather... implement policy that you know will have the desired effect. After a certain point the risk is of running an electoral scam, which can work for quite a while but o/c when the electorate figures out they've been had... what then?

That depends on what methods you are prepared to use, and Italy is a country that actually has the resources that would allow them to implement an efficient deportation program, but its unclear if M5S has the stomach for it.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well they want to deport half a million people, which may cause a lot of heads to turn. Tough deport them all immigration policies are your standard standard sausage factory dilemma: everybody wants a tough policy, but they squirm at the grisly reality.

[SPQR]

When PD is going to elect its new leader? Are there any politicians who announced their will to participate in leader elections as a candidate?

Last Saturday's National Assembly was supposed to be the start of the new congress, but Renzi decided to make it a discussion on the current political affairs and the new government, so it will be the next one (in June/July) that will define the dates and all.
I find it hard to believe that the primaries will be before Spring '19. And it would be useless to do so, since there are few strong candidates and none with clear ideas on what to do.

Zingaretti, Lazio's governor, said he wants to run, but he is just using empty words trying to appeal to the leftist wing and to those sympathetic to M5S. His only strong point is that he (barely) won the regional elections in March on the same day that PD lost badly, but it will get weaker over time.
Ad-interim secretary Martina may also run; he is trying to make a name for himself as the candidate of unity between the various groups.
Amongst those closer to Renzi, there are no strong candidates at the moment. Serracchiani, former governor of Friuli Venezia Giulia and once considered to be a wonderkid (around 2008; she then became MEP in 2009), is now very weak and despised. Richetti is kind of a Renzist maverick but with little name recognition.
Delrio, former mayor of Reggio Emilia and Minister of Infrastructure, close to Renzi but very moderate, would be the best pick IMHO, but he keeps on refusing to run.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

When PD is going to elect its new leader? Are there any politicians who announced their will to participate in leader elections as a candidate?

Last Saturday's National Assembly was supposed to be the start of the new congress, but Renzi decided to make it a discussion on the current political affairs and the new government, so it will be the next one (in June/July) that will define the dates and all.
I find it hard to believe that the primaries will be before Spring '19. And it would be useless to do so, since there are few strong candidates and none with clear ideas on what to do.

Zingaretti, Lazio's governor, said he wants to run, but he is just using empty words trying to appeal to the leftist wing and to those sympathetic to M5S. His only strong point is that he (barely) won the regional elections in March on the same day that PD lost badly, but it will get weaker over time.
Ad-interim secretary Martina may also run; he is trying to make a name for himself as the candidate of unity between the various groups.
Amongst those closer to Renzi, there are no strong candidates at the moment. Serracchiani, former governor of Friuli Venezia Giulia and once considered to be a wonderkid (around 2008; she then became MEP in 2009), is now very weak and despised. Richetti is kind of a Renzist maverick but with little name recognition.
Delrio, former mayor of Reggio Emilia and Minister of Infrastructure, close to Renzi but very moderate, would be the best pick IMHO, but he keeps on refusing to run.

Thank you very much for answer.

[Tender Branson]

President Matarella has now officially instructed Conte to lead the new government as PM.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Conte resigned from mission to create the new govt.

[Diouf]

Conte resigned from mission to create the new govt.

Apparently Mattarella vetoed Savona as Finance Minister. Lega's choice as minister with strong Eurosceptic views.

After Ireland's reversal of a referendum, time for another referendum reversal here? Vittorio Emanuele IV perhaps?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_institutional_referendum,_1946

[rosin]

Now, it looks as if Conte gives up on forming a government:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44275010

I don't know that much about Italian politics, but this reaction to Mattarella's veto seems weird - one must ask oneself what really is the background of this.

[Diouf]

Now, it looks as if Conte gives up on forming a government:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44275010

I don't know that much about Italian politics, but this reaction to Mattarella's veto seems weird - one must ask oneself what really is the background of this.

Mattarella argues in two ways, basically. One is the financial risks are too big, with the increasing market spread etc. The second is that "being in the Euro is fundamental for the future of our country and our young people. If we want to discuss it, we have to do it openly, as it hasn't been a salient topic of the latest elections". So he sees Savona as a way for M5S and Lega to favour an euro exit without really saying it clearly. Both parties seemed to have reeled back their Euro opposition in the election campaign, and it was not a part of the coalition agreement, but Mattarella probably interpreted Savona as a sign they would leave the euro anyway. So he wants the parties to openly commit to leaving the euro (it that is indeed the plan).

With regards future, he said "No minority government. Preference is a neutral caretaker government with elections in Dec. If parties find another solution, this govt resigns and hands over to the new political govt. If no caretaker, elections in Autumn.

[kelestian]

So, instead of minority government it will be government of some dudes? Seems not very democratic. Also i think if your president had such authorities, you should have direct presidential election.

[Diouf]

Di Maio statements."Today they blocked our government for change, and not because we insisted on Savona, but because all those like Savona were not okay, all those [...] who were critical of the Euro and of Europe were not okay as ministers of the Republic. If this is the issue, we've got a big problem in Italy, which is called democracy. This is not a free democracy in these conditions. I profoundly admired Mattarella but this choice is incomprehensible. In the coalition agreement there wasn't the exit from the €. In that contract there was the revision of treaties and some European rules. [...] We were ready to abolish the pension reform, precarious contracts, to address immigration and economic problems, they didn't allow us. What was the problem? That rating agencies and investors were worried? Then let's say it: voting is useless, the governments in Italy are decided by rating agencies and financial lobbies and banks. Always the same decide the govt, even when the people vote for forces of change. It's an unprecedented level of institutional conflict. What's the point of new elections? We win again, propose Savona and get vetoed again [...] I'm very angry, it took over 80 days to secure a good govt for this country, but they're doing everything not to let us into govt". He then concluded with a list of ministers proposed. Di Maio was to be deputy PM and Economic development and social policies minister while Salvini was to be Deputy PM and Interior Minister".

Salvini statement: "We have a democracy. The names of the ministers are decided by the Italian people, not by the Germans, the French or the Portuguese. Without Savona [in the cabinet], we're headed for a new vote.".

Meloni calls for impeaching the president, while Berlusconi calls such talk "irresponsible".

[Sestak]

Wait, the President can just veto Cabinet members? What??

[DC Al Fine]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.