Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Sestak]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

If this is true, and it looks like it is, this is a complete failure of democracy.

[Diouf]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

According to Mattarella's statements, then he will probably accept an M5S-Lega government with an Eurosceptic Finance Minister if they campaign on Euro withdrawal.

But this is a very peculiar decision. It seems like it will boost the two parties, but things are probably hard to predict in this environment. And will both parties then campaign on leaving the euro? And how will that affect support?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

If this is true, and it looks like it is, this is a complete failure of democracy.

Why so? These are competencies of president guaranteed by Italian law.

[Lord Halifax]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

If this is true, and it looks like it is, this is a complete failure of democracy.

Why so? These are competencies of president guaranteed by Italian law.

Something being legal and constitutional doesn't make it democratic. The president is elected by parliament for seven years, and can then block the appointment of a new and more radical government. So an old pro-establishment parliament can indirectly prevent the voters from getting a new and more radical government later on. Not very democratic. If a president has that kind of powers he should be directly elected by the people.

[Beezer]

All of this seems rather dubious from a democratic point of view. "Hey, you didn't specifically campaign on this issue, therefore this potential cabinet minister can't join the government."

Of course this also feeds into the whole populist narrative that the mainstream supports democracy as long as you vote for the right people. And then - to add insult to injury - Mattarella names a former IMF employee as PM?

[DC Al Fine]

All of this seems rather dubious from a democratic point of view. "Hey, you didn't specifically campaign on this issue, therefore this potential cabinet minister can't join the government."

Of course this also feeds into the whole populist narrative that the mainstream supports democracy as long as you vote for the right people. And then - to add insult to injury - Mattarella names a former IMF employee as PM?

Plot twist: Mattarella is a deep cover mole working for the populists to make the establishment look bad.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that a lot of people are new to Italian politics in general, the Italian state in particular and very specifically its somewhat complex relationship with the concept of democracy.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

If this is true, and it looks like it is, this is a complete failure of democracy.

Why so? These are competencies of president guaranteed by Italian law.

Something being legal and constitutional doesn't make it democratic. The president is elected by parliament for seven years, and can then block the appointment of a new and more radical government. So an old pro-establishment parliament can indirectly prevent the voters from getting a new and more radical government later on. Not very democratic. If a president has that kind of powers he should be directly elected by the people.

They decided to participate in elections, they decided to participate in that whole political system which have its own set of institutions and legal acts setting rules. That's how its work. I think that Mattarella decision was stupid and of course motivated by purely political factors and not that thing about investors etc. but still he got elected as a president fairly by all those old guys in Italian parliament and just used powers which I guess all of those people accepted president should have before. I am sure that Lega-elected president or M5S-elected president would do the same if some sort of turbo-pro-refugees party would won elections. This is not how probably it should look like but calling it a failure is definitely too much.

[Lord Halifax]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

If this is true, and it looks like it is, this is a complete failure of democracy.

Why so? These are competencies of president guaranteed by Italian law.

Something being legal and constitutional doesn't make it democratic. The president is elected by parliament for seven years, and can then block the appointment of a new and more radical government. So an old pro-establishment parliament can indirectly prevent the voters from getting a new and more radical government later on. Not very democratic. If a president has that kind of powers he should be directly elected by the people.

They decided to participate in elections, they decided to participate in that whole political system which have its own set of institutions and legal acts setting rules. That's how its work. I think that Mattarella decision was stupid and of course motivated by purely political factors and not that thing about investors etc. but still he got elected as a president fairly by all those old guys in Italian parliament and just used powers which I guess all of those people accepted president should have before. I am sure that Lega-elected president or M5S-elected president would do the same if some sort of turbo-pro-refugees party would won elections. This is not how probably it should look like but calling it a failure is definitely too much.

How it "works" has nothing to do with whether it's democratic or not.

[Skill and Chance]

All of this seems rather dubious from a democratic point of view. "Hey, you didn't specifically campaign on this issue, therefore this potential cabinet minister can't join the government."

Of course this also feeds into the whole populist narrative that the mainstream supports democracy as long as you vote for the right people. And then - to add insult to injury - Mattarella names a former IMF employee as PM?

Plot twist: Mattarella is a deep cover mole working for the populists to make the establishment look bad.

This sounds roughly equivalent to an alternate timeline in which a bunch of quietly anti-Trump Republican electors vote for Clinton in December.  In which case it would be a major own goal.  Republicans would likely win 2/3rds majorities in congress in 2018 and govern more radically than Trump has.  I expect similar things to happen in Italy.

[Beezer]

All of this seems rather dubious from a democratic point of view. "Hey, you didn't specifically campaign on this issue, therefore this potential cabinet minister can't join the government."

Of course this also feeds into the whole populist narrative that the mainstream supports democracy as long as you vote for the right people. And then - to add insult to injury - Mattarella names a former IMF employee as PM?

Plot twist: Mattarella is a deep cover mole working for the populists to make the establishment look bad.

Moreover I think everybody is well aware of the position on Europe and the euro that both the M5S and Lega hold. It's not like they've never talked about the impact the euro has had on the Italian economy...

[EPG]

It's also not very democratic to have a written constitution. But every country places some limits on representative democracy. It seems fair to explicitly ask Italians if they reject the euro and the EU treaties, rather than "do you like free money, btw we are quitting the euro, that's democracy".

[Tender Branson]

What are the requirements for the impeachment and removal of the Italian President ?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

If this is true, and it looks like it is, this is a complete failure of democracy.

Why so? These are competencies of president guaranteed by Italian law.

Something being legal and constitutional doesn't make it democratic. The president is elected by parliament for seven years, and can then block the appointment of a new and more radical government. So an old pro-establishment parliament can indirectly prevent the voters from getting a new and more radical government later on. Not very democratic. If a president has that kind of powers he should be directly elected by the people.

They decided to participate in elections, they decided to participate in that whole political system which have its own set of institutions and legal acts setting rules. That's how its work. I think that Mattarella decision was stupid and of course motivated by purely political factors and not that thing about investors etc. but still he got elected as a president fairly by all those old guys in Italian parliament and just used powers which I guess all of those people accepted president should have before. I am sure that Lega-elected president or M5S-elected president would do the same if some sort of turbo-pro-refugees party would won elections. This is not how probably it should look like but calling it a failure is definitely too much.

How it "works" has nothing to do with whether it's democratic or not.

It has a lot. Political systems are mainly about institutions and level of how much people accepting them. Voting is only one aspect of that.

[SPQR]

Now, it looks as if Conte gives up on forming a government:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44275010

I don't know that much about Italian politics, but this reaction to Mattarella's veto seems weird - one must ask oneself what really is the background of this.

Mattarella argues in two ways, basically. One is the financial risks are too big, with the increasing market spread etc. The second is that "being in the Euro is fundamental for the future of our country and our young people. If we want to discuss it, we have to do it openly, as it hasn't been a salient topic of the latest elections". So he sees Savona as a way for M5S and Lega to favour an euro exit without really saying it clearly. Both parties seemed to have reeled back their Euro opposition in the election campaign, and it was not a part of the coalition agreement, but Mattarella probably interpreted Savona as a sign they would leave the euro anyway. So he wants the parties to openly commit to leaving the euro (it that is indeed the plan).

With regards future, he said "No minority government. Preference is a neutral caretaker government with elections in Dec. If parties find another solution, this govt resigns and hands over to the new political govt. If no caretaker, elections in Autumn.

Exactly.
M5S and Lega tried to impose an anti-Euro view which was nowhere in their pre-electoral programme nor in their government agreement.
It's one thing to shout against the EU as an opposition party, something else to not talk about EU during the electoral campaign and then want at all costs a minister which wrote about a "plan B": going out of the Euro all of a sudden, without talking about it, in order to minimize the damage.

Mattarella did his job of protecting the Constitution and the Italians; now it's up to the voters.
Next elections will be a referendum on Italexit. Putin is already licking his lips.

[SPQR]

To be clear: Mattarella said no to Savona but would have accepted one of Lega's main politicians as Finance Minister.
The point is that Lega and M5S wanted to break up from the euro while not having said it publicly one single time.

[DavidB.]

Bizarre power grab by the President. Completely unacceptable.

[rob in cal]

  Maybe an actual referendum on leaving the Euro would be a smoother, cleaner approach to this issue.  After all, there must be many voters who support M5 the League, or any party for that matter, who support that party for a variety of reasons, having little or nothing to do with the euro, regardless of whether the next election is fought primarily over that issue.

[BigSkyBob]

To be clear: Mattarella said no to Savona but would have accepted one of Lega's main politicians as Finance Minister.
The point is that Lega and M5S wanted to break up from the euro while not having said it publicly one single time.

If a country aspired to create an export-oriented economy with large trade surpluses it would, in general, face the severe headwind of rising currencies that made its exports more expensive abroad while lowering the costs of imported goods. That assumes currencies float. If they didn't, the headwind would be less severe.

The Euro is a glorified fixed-exchange regime amongst the European states.

In the real world, that aspiring state is Germany,  and that export policy is succeeding spectacularly as the folks in Greece can attest.

Devaluation is the answer, and, leaving the Euro is the only path to devaluation. Otherwise, teaching German, English, and Dutch in primary school is the best hope Italian children have for a better life.

[EPG]

Italy is not going to become an export-driven country by printing joke lira. Some crazy number like 70% of people are employed by family businesses.

[jaichind]

Not sure what Mattarella is up to.  In theory what he did is in accordance to the rules but it seems it merely mobilizes energy behind M5S and Lega.  I would be curious on what voting intentions look in polls after this set of events.  I suspect a surge of support for M5S and Lega and fall in support for PD and FI.

[RogueBeaver]

SWG has Lega at 28%, M5S 30%, PD 19%, FI 8%. Right at 40%. https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1001172050072035328

[Former President tack50]

Is there a chance that the right gets an absolute majority and instead of M5S-Lega, Italy gets Lega-Forza Italia-FdI? Honestly, I'd say that would be a marginally better government, at least Berlusconi will put the brakes on the radical proposals (I still can't believe Berlusconi is Italy's best hope)

To be clear: Mattarella said no to Savona but would have accepted one of Lega's main politicians as Finance Minister.
The point is that Lega and M5S wanted to break up from the euro while not having said it publicly one single time.

If a country aspired to create an export-oriented economy with large trade surpluses it would, in general, face the severe headwind of rising currencies that made its exports more expensive abroad while lowering the costs of imported goods. That assumes currencies float. If they didn't, the headwind would be less severe.

The Euro is a glorified fixed-exchange regime amongst the European states.

In the real world, that aspiring state is Germany,  and that export policy is succeeding spectacularly as the folks in Greece can attest.

Devaluation is the answer, and, leaving the Euro is the only path to devaluation. Otherwise, teaching German, English, and Dutch in primary school is the best hope Italian children have for a better life.

Ah yes, because that worked flawlessly for Zimbabwe and Venezuela

[jaichind]

I wonder if there will be a shift of alliances where M5S-Lega runs as allies in the next election versus a Lega-FI-FdI-NcI.

[jaichind]

Italy sovereign 5 year CDS surges to levels not seen since 2013.  I guess Mattarella was trapped.   He could accept Savona as finance minister but the resulting surge in Italy borrowing costs would create a situation where there will be an Italy exit from the Euro by proxy.  Or he could reject Savona and now he will get a surge in Italian borrowing costs anyway.   Worse for  Mattarella, now M5S and Lega will have the talking point of "Italians voters should decide the who will be in government and not the bond market."

Looks like we are headed for July elections.