Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[rob in cal]

  Are both parties set on scrapping the Fornero reform? If so wouldn't they have the majority to do so, or do they need a two thirds majority for it?

[Tender Branson]

Lega almost hitting 30% in a new Ipsos poll, up 11% from their election results, and almost passing M5S to become the largest party in Italy:



M5S+Lega are almost at 60% now.

Right: 42% (+5)
Populists: 30% (-3)
Left: 25% (-1)
Others: 3% (-1)

[EPG]

It's telling that - despite the wishful thinking of the odd Hamon-Wilders axis that comprises most of Atlas - PD isn't being destroyed in polls. Almost all Lega gains are from Berlusconi and M5S. M5S look more and more like unprepared sitting ducks, being used to allow the far-right to take over internal institutions before a fully far-right government can be imposed on Italy.

[palandio]

Well, the PD's March 4 result was quite underwhelming. The remaining voters preferred the Renzian PD over the populist M5S. Why should they go now to the far-right populist Lega or a M5S that is in a coalition with the far-right populist Lega?
The bigger challenge for the PD will be to re-broaden its electoral appeal and break out from the left-liberal 20% electoral niche. Sitting on their hands and waiting for the M5S to fail seems like not enough to me. Many voters who abandoned PD for M5S on March 4 actively turned away from the PD in the state in which it presented itself.
I don't advocate for the PD to abandon its current stances for more populism. But it is rather sad to observe that the inner-party current that for a long time had been fighting for majoritarian appeal has now fallen into the minoritarian trap itself.

[parochial boy]

I mean, the PD went from polling in the 40s to polling in the teens, so their collapse has alread come and gone. As to why the likef of LeU haven't benefitting from that, well, their leadsership was never really going to drive a left-left revival. But

M5S look more and more like unprepared sitting ducks, being used to allow the far-right to take over internal institutions before a fully far-right government can be imposed on Italy.

This seems pretty likely, sadly enough

[rob in cal]

   Are there any indications that the 5 stars will at some point split, with one group in favor of the Conte/Di Maio/Salvini government, and the other against it, perhaps in favor of an alliance with the PD?

[palandio]

On the one hand quite likely considering Italian political culture in general and what happened to the Five Stars caucus during the last legislature. On the other hand I think that they have vetted their candidates more carefully than last time and that it was much clearer this time that M5S is not at all the right vehicle for leftist idealists to make the world better. Additionally an alliance with the PD is not feasible because the PD does not want it with the Five Stars as a whole, and because any Five Stars splinter wouldn't have a majority together with PD and LeU.

[Tender Branson]

The Lega (= the FPÖ's sister party) is apparently open to talks about handing Italian/Austrian dual-citizenship to South Tyrolians:

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https://kurier.at/politik/ausland/doppelpaesse-fuer-suedtiroler-lega-zeigt-verstaendnis/400046879

[EPG]

Historically, MSI - AN - FdI rather than the Lega gained from Italian-nationalist minority fear in South Tyrol. Lega Nord, of course, is not actually an Italian-nationalist party or even xenophobic, in the strict sense of fear of all foreigners. Its ideology is that northerners are Padan, Lombard and Aryan, which poses no difficulty in co-operating with Austrians, and is also entirely consistent with wanting to drive Africans out of Italy.

[Tender Branson]

Salvini plans meeting with Austrian Interior Minister Kickl

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http://orf.at/stories/2441908

[parochial boy]

Did anyone ever post this? Where 2013 voters went in 2018 - the number of Monti-M5S voters seems... suprising to say the least, but even with the crosstabs disclaimer it's a bit hard to ignore..

[palandio]

Ixè's voter flows are not supported by other pollsters:

http://www.demopolis.it/?p=4992

According to Demopolis, out of 100 people who voted M5S in 2017, 67 had already voted M5S in 2013, 14 had voted PD, 8 had abstained or were new voters, 5 had voted PdL (now FI), and only 6 had voted for other parties (including Lega, Monti, SeL, RC, etc.).