Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alright, here's the new Italy fad! Discuss Berlusconi's antics, the PD's uselessness and Grillo's trolling here.

If you want a comment from me on the past few sequences, I'll just say this: things could be about to get better, but this is Italy, so let's stay cautious.

[jaichind]

Center-right parties including former Italian Premier Berlusconi’s PDL lead over center-left parties including Premier Letta’s PD narrows to 1.7 pp versus 2.5 pps last week, according to poll by SWG gauging voting intentions.

Center-right bloc at 34.8% vs 35.4% last week
Center-left bloc at 33.1% vs 32.9% last week
Grillo’s Five Star Movement at 21.2% vs 20% last week

It is interesting that this list crisis has halted Grillo's decline and now he is moving up in the polls. 

[Senator Cris]

Basilicata regional elections (17-18 November 2013)

List and candidates.

Marcello Pittella

Democratic Party
President's List
Democratic Center (with Popular United)
Realtà Italia
Socialist Party
Italy of Values

Tito Di Maggio (Senator of Civic Choice, in contrast with Mario Monti)

People of Freedom
Union of the Center
Moderates in Revolution
Officina Basilicata (with Civic Choice, Brothers of Italy, Great South)

Piernicola Pedicini

Movement 5 Stars

Maria Murante

Basilicata 2.0 (with Left Ecology and Freedom)

Elisabetta Zamparutti

The Rose in her Hand (Radicals)

Rocco Tauro

The Right and Tricolor Flame

Florenzo Doino

Communist Party of Workers

Franco Grillo

Regionali 2013

and a candidate for "Fare for the Basilicata"

[RogueBeaver]

Berlusconi banned from parliament for 2 years, dunno if this thing can also be appealed.

[Senator Cris]

Yesterday the Bureau of PDL.

The decisions:
- Acceleration of the passage from PDL to Forza Italia
- Resetting of fillers (including Alfano)

[Andrea]

Trento provincial elections


Rossi (PD-PATT-UPT-Landis-Greens-Socialists) 58.12%
Masna (local lists) 19.28%
Fugatti (Lega) 6.59%
De Gasperi (5 Stars) 5.72%
Bezzi (Forza Trentino) 4.27%
Arisi (SEL) 1.78%
De Eccher (Brothers of Italy) 1.54%
Casagranda (Communists) 1.14%
then 3 candidates below 1%

Council

PD 22.07%, 9 seats
PATT (Autonomists) 17.55%, 7 seats
UPT (centrist of Center-Left coalition) 13.33%, 5 seats
Ladins 1.14%, 1 seat
rest of center-left coalition 0 seat

Progetto Trentino 9.03%, 4 seats
Civica Trentono 3.7%, 1 seat
Amministrare Trentino 2.1%, 1 seat
+ Masna
no seats for other lists of his coalition

Lega 6.22%, 1 seat (+ Fugatti)

5 Stars 5.84%, 1 seat (+ De Gasperi)

Forza Trentino 4.42%, 0 seat (but Bezzi elected)

no representation for other lists and candidates

[Zanas]

Is the 5 Stelle candidate De Gasperi related to Alcide De Gasperi ? If that's the case, poor Alcide must be turning over in his grave...

[Tender Branson]

In a 7-6 vote, a Senate panel voted that the vote to throw out Berlusconi from the Senate must be held openly, and not by secret ballot.

Excellent.

[Cassius]

Is Monti still around? Or is his party now a shipwreck?

[RogueBeaver]

Is Monti still around? Or is his party now a shipwreck?

He left his own party, which is floundering. Of course PD is in the middle of their leadership process, which won't finish till mid-December.

[Peeperkorn]

Berlusconi if possible.

[Senator Cris]

In a 7-6 vote, a Senate panel voted that the vote to throw out Berlusconi from the Senate must be held openly, and not by secret ballot.

Excellent.

The decisive vote is of Linda Lanzillotta (Civic Choice).

[Senator Cris]

The votes of the Democratic Party's circles (not the primary).


Source: Sondaggi Bidimedia

[RogueBeaver]

Please explain what "circles" are. Are they the party members who're now voting for those heading to the convention?

[Keystone Phil]

I wish we could have kept the old thread going!

Who is this Cuperlo? Could Renzi really be stopped again?

[RogueBeaver]

According to Wiki, the social democratic establishment candidate. Renzi's main left opponent, apparently. An open primary should help Renzi.

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of the primary, no worries because he's dominating. 73% in the latest poll. Good to see PD has finally learned their lesson.

[Keystone Phil]

Speaking of the primary, no worries because he's dominating. 73% in the latest poll. Good to see PD has finally learned their lesson.

The corrupt establishment leftists will have their say. This won't be a landslide.

[RogueBeaver]

True, particularly if it goes to the national party assembly. Though I'd expect him to win the primary outright. Still a month to go before the process is over.

[Keystone Phil]

This Civati guy seems like he could be the wildcard. He's young and is (or at least was) willing to team up with M5S to prevent the current coalition government. He's to Renzi's left so that should take some of the leftist vote from Cuperlo but is also anti establishment which could lure some Renzi/undecided folks, I'd imagine. Pitella seems irrelevant.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cuperlo is D'Alema's handpicked candidate. He's probably not a bad guy himself, but he has zero charisma and would probably be completely useless.

Civati is by far the best choice: young and energetic like Renzi, but actually left-wing. But he seems to have no chance.

[palandio]

It's so sad. The leftists (particularly economic leftists) within the PD (Cuperlo, Fassina) are almost completely tied to the apparatchik wing, whose personification is D'Alema. D'Alema and Bersani have still this certain ideological post-communist flavor but on actual politics they are almost as centrist/third-wayist as Renzi.
The anti-apparatchik left-wing (Marino, Civati etc.) will likely remain in their 15% niche.

Altogether the situation looks like:
Big post-communist apparatchik center (D'Alema etc.)
+ centrists that have made their peace with Bersani (Letta, Franceschini)
+ pro-apparatchik Christian left (Bindi etc.)
+ left-wing, Young Turks (Cuperlo, Fassina, etc.)
vs.
Liberal right-wing (Renzi etc.)
+ Chritian conservatives (Fioroni etc.)
+ ex-social democrats (Fassino, Chiamparino, Veltroni, etc.)
+ social-democratic modernists (Serrachiani etc.)
vs.
Anti-establishment left-wing (Marino, Civati, etc.)

The problem is that you can't build a coalition around the post-communist apparatchik center without including parts of it. Particularly many nostalgic party members still vote for people that pray left-wing ideology and then do what the apparat wants. An open primary is a chance for Renzi because many voters will vote for a candidate they feel has majority appeal.

[RogueBeaver]

When is the final Berlusconi expulsion vote scheduled for?

[Antonio the Sixth]

When is the final Berlusconi expulsion vote scheduled for?

November 27th.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It's official: PdL is gonna split.