Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

It's official: PdL is gonna split.

Oh my God. Details?

[YL]

It's official: PdL is gonna split.

Oh my God. Details?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24966934

[RogueBeaver]

That's over a third of his Senate caucus and more than 20% of his deputies, so I'd stick a fork in the centre-right for the foreseeable future since Alfano's sticking with the coalition. How long does PD want to keep the coalition going?

[RodPresident]

Alfano could be more trustful for PD establishment than members of own party. If a majority of PD caucus want, government can survive until 2018. Government could be ended if Renzi, after winning leadership, gets control of caucus and a poll advantadge that makes safe to go for country. Alfano will heir control of Monti coalition and he'll keep them until bitter end.

[Keystone Phil]

Silvio still looking to Alfano for help, urging his side to align with FI to defeat the left. Berlusconi even asked his supporters not to attack Alfano and Co. - http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/11/17/335053/berlusconi-seeks-to-form-new-alliance/

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only thing that matters is that they will keep propping up the government no matter what (that's the whole reason behind the split), thus defusing any incentive PD had to avoid expelling Berlusconi from the Parliament.

[Andrea]

Basilicata count very slow in reporting. Turnout collapsed from 62.8 to 47.6%

With 259 polling stations reported out of 681, Pittella (centre-left, brother of Pittella MEP running for the leadership) is far ahead with 60.79%. PDL candidate is at 21.43%, M5S at 10.85%, SEL at 4.69%.

PD provisional results among party members released by the party today

Renzi 46.7%
Cuperlo 38.4%
Civati 9.2%
Pittella 5.7%

[RogueBeaver]

So all 4 go to the convention and primary?

[Keystone Phil]

Good to see it is close amongst the party faithful. Need some excitement instead of a coronation!

[Leftbehind]

Anything but a Renzi coronation.

[SPQR]

So all 4 go to the convention and primary?

No,Pittella won't go to the primary.

Anyhow a close result was expected in this vote;+8 Renzi is actually a great result.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, Renzi will win big. Sad to see Civati not doing any better, though.

[Andrea]

Basilicata

Pittella (PD+Socialists+Democratic Centre+Italy of Values) 59.60%
Di Maggio (PDL+Civic Choice+UDC) 19.38%
Pedicini (5 Stars) 13.19%
Murante (SEL) 5.16%
everybody else below 1%

Lists

PD 24.83% (4 seats)
Pittella President 16.01% (3)
Socialists 7.47 (1)
Realtà Italia 5.92% (1)
Democratic Center 5.04 (1)
+ 2 seats for the Pittella's Coalition
....
PDL 12.27 (2)
Civic Choice 5.08 (1)
UDC 3.8 (1)
+ 1 seat for the coalition
...
5 Stars  8.97% (2)
....
SEL 5.16% (1)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Massive floods in Sardinia yesterday night and today. Already 18 deaths confirmed. As usual Italian disaster relief sucked big time.

[Keystone Phil]

I saw that it was officially a cyclone: six months worth of rain in a day.

[Keystone Phil]

Check out the map La Repubblica put together for the results from the "party circles" - http://www.repubblica.it/politica/2013/11/19/news/primarie_pd_il_voto_nei_circoli_regione_per_regione_mappa-71368260/

Renzi did best in Campania (+25) while Cuperlo's strongest region was Molise (+29). Emilia-Romagna was the closest: Cuperlo by about one point. Cuperlo also took Sicily and Basilicata.

[Senator Cris]

Basilicata

Pittella (PD+Socialists+Democratic Centre+Italy of Values) 59.60%
Di Maggio (PDL+Civic Choice+UDC) 19.38%
Pedicini (5 Stars) 13.19%
Murante (SEL) 5.16%
everybody else below 1%

Lists

PD 24.83% (4 seats)
Pittella President 16.01% (3)
Socialists 7.47 (1)
Realtà Italia 5.92% (1)
Democratic Center 5.04 (1)
+ 2 seats for the Pittella's Coalition
....
PDL 12.27 (2)
Civic Choice 5.08 (1)
UDC 3.8 (1)
+ 1 seat for the coalition
...
5 Stars  8.97% (2)
....
SEL 5.16% (1)

The list isn't Civic Choice but Brothers of Italy + Civic Choice + Great south.

The elect of this list is of Brothers of Italy.

[jaichind]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

[warandwar]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

2006 and 2013 were quite close...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

2006 and 2013 were quite close...

Yes, but, as both these elections showed, the pollsters' margin of error goes well beyond the single percentage point.

[Senator Cris]

CD is in the lead for Tecnè (+5%), Swg (+4%), Ipr (+4%), Ispo (+3%), Euromedia (+2%), Emg (+1%) and Ipsos (+0,6%).
CS is in the lead for Ixè (+0,3%) and Datamedia (+0,7%).

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

2006 and 2013 were quite close...

Yes, but, as both these elections showed, the pollsters' margin of error goes well beyond the single percentage point.

True. If an election is close enough that decimals would be valuable information in polling then it's more than close enough for the polls to get the result wrong anyway.

[Senator Cris]

At 17:00 PM (Italy Time) the vote for decay of Berlusconi.

Today is the day!