Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[palandio]

  Does anything stand out as surprising with this map?

There is a very strong correlation between the 2014 European election results (where the Democratic Party got 40.8%, you might also want to add the South Tyrolean People's Party at 0.5%) and the referendum results (40.9% yes).

Notable exceptions are:
- The south with the exception of the rather small Abruzzo and Molise regions. The south of Italy has never been a center-left stronghold, but the referendum results are clearly below what could have been expected given the European election. This holds particularly in Sardegna and Basilicata, which have usually been more center-left friendly than say Sicily. Also the Yes vote in Naples city was really low.
+ In South Tyrol the referendum result (63.7% yes) is exactly equal to the sum of PD and SVP (15.7% PD + 48.0% SVP)
- In the Trentino on the other hand, where the SVP-PATT had 12.0% in 2014 and the PD had 42.3%, only 45.7% voted yes.
+ In Lombardy (Milan city in particular) and to a lesser degree Piedmont support for the referendum proposal was clearly stronger than the 2014 PD results (which were already very high compared to the weak numbers during Berlusconi's best times).

Another interesting observation: In (post-)industrial Genoa city the traditionally right-wing up-scale quarters were the only ones where yes prevailed. The traditionally left-wing working class quarters rejected the proposal by clear margins. Similar patterns seem to have occurred in other cities. (Rome? Turin?)

[rob in cal]

    Palandio, that's intriguing about the patterns of support by class, perhaps another example of the switch in political preferences of social classes, similar to what we also saw in Austria.

[palandio]

Switch is probably a bit to much, at least in Genoa. The new outline in party politics is that the working class quarters trend heavily towards Grillo (and still think of themselves as left-wing), with above-average PD support in some of its old strongholds. The bourgeois quarters will still vote for right-wing and moderate parties, not for the PD, even more so without Renzi.

To me it seems more like the genoese bourgeois quarters have voted for stability, for Renzi's perceived moderateness and for a constitutional reform that might also have been a right-wing proposal under Berlusconi's rule. They would run away as soon as they see a Green with a far-left past (like van der Bellen).

The genoese working class quarters would (at least at the moment) not give a majority to anyone the perceive as right-wing. Grillo might be perceived by some political observers as a crypto-fascist, but for many voters it's more of an anti-establishment thing. In some sense it was the same thing with the Communists during the Cold War.

[Axel Foley]

Sudtirol voted 60+ in favour of the reform, but its few Italian majority-speaking cities such as Bozen itself and Laives/Leifers voted NO...LOL...Sudtirol is quite funny, a German speaking country with an Italian minority imported by Benito mostly from Southern Italy...two peoples different like day and night...1918 stupid and anachronistic legacy.

[Axel Foley]

what

südtirol-trentino which is ofc part of the REICH!

(thought that name would be better-known. like any good austrian i have family in south tyrol and the czech republic.)

Without Sudtirol we wouldn't exist anymore in Winter Olympics...LOL

[SPQR]

  Does anything stand out as surprising with this map?

Another interesting observation: In (post-)industrial Genoa city the traditionally right-wing up-scale quarters were the only ones where yes prevailed. The traditionally left-wing working class quarters rejected the proposal by clear margins. Similar patterns seem to have occurred in other cities. (Rome? Turin?)

The Yes won in the most central, up-scale quarters of pretty much all major cities.

Indeed, the vote can really be explained by a few factors: there is a strong correlation between the No vote and areas with higher unemployment, lower presence of foreigners, lower level of education...the usual pattern we'been seing recently.
It's really becoming a core vs periphery issue.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey all, glad to see this thread has been kept alive throughout these eventful (if thoroughly depressing) times.

Here's another map about this absolute disaster of a referendum, showing the compared results for Yes, No, and nonvoters as a percentage of registered voters:


As always, central Italy is the only remotely sane part of the country.


Now, if you want my take on what's to come, let me just say that I look forward to Renzi exacting cruel vengeance on those slimy apparatchiks who stabbed him in the back. The PD must be purged.

At least we still have VINCENZO DE LUCA!

[DC Al Fine]

I've seen a few people comparing the American left's response to Trump to the Italian left's response to Berlusconi when he was first elected. Tldr version is that the Italian centre left spent too much time preaching to the choir, which turned off potentially swingable voters and gave Berlusconi rhetorical ammunition, similar to how Clinton's "deplorables" remark backfired.

Two questions:

1) Is this description accurate?
2) What could the Italian centre-left done differently to defeat Berlusconi earlier?

[ApatheticAustrian]

trump couldn't have won in italy, imho, cause you need to play the game of thrones to create a long-living coalition in italy and that's some serious work to be done.

[Antonio the Sixth]

1) Is this description accurate?

From my somewhat limited experience (I started following Italian politics in 2006), very much so. The Italian left's main strategy for most of Berlusconi's reign was to call him out on the outrageous things he said or his shady business dealings, and later on the bunga bunga. While these were all things that outraged left-wingers, it turned out that the average voter didn't care much either way, and when presented with unpopular center-left government, went with the only alternative.

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Hindsight is 20/20 and I'm not exactly a master of political strategy, but my guess is that they should have spent less time asking the question "Is Berlusconi a good role model for your children?" and instead start asking "What has Berlusconi actually done for Italy?" - the answer being almost nothing, aside from laws aimed at putting himself out of trouble judicially. I really don't want to sound like a Renzi hack (I don't even really like him!), but Renzi is one of the first who understood this, and it worked wonders. When he took over, Berlusconi's coalition was leading in the polls with Forza Italia itself the high 20s. Less than six months later, in the EP elections, it got a mere 17%. Even these days, with Renzi's approvals down, FI is polling below 15% (now the Lega has gained a lot, but that's a different issue).

[SPQR]

1) Is this description accurate?

From my somewhat limited experience (I started following Italian politics in 2006), very much so. The Italian left's main strategy for most of Berlusconi's reign was to call him out on the outrageous things he said or his shady business dealings, and later on the bunga bunga. While these were all things that outraged left-wingers, it turned out that the average voter didn't care much either way, and when presented with unpopular center-left government, went with the only alternative.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hindsight is 20/20 and I'm not exactly a master of political strategy, but my guess is that they should have spent less time asking the question "Is Berlusconi a good role model for you children?" and instead start asking "What has Berlusconi actually done for Italy?" - the answer being almost nothing, aside from laws aimed at putting himself out of trouble judicially. I really don't want to sound like a Renzi hack (I don't even really like him!), but Renzi is one of the first who understood this, and it worked wonders. When he took over, Berlusconi's coalition was leading in the polls with Forza Italia itself the high 20s. Less than six months later, in the EP elections, it won 17%. Even these days, with Renzi's approvals down, FI is polling below 15% (now the Lega has gained a lot, but that's a different issue).

Yep, pretty good analysis.

[DC Al Fine]

Thanks for the info.

[SPQR]

The latest from the M5S: institute "people's courts" to establish whether media are reporting accurate and true news.

This happened just a few days after the government proposed to tackle the whole fake-news issue, which the M5S actively supports...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Antonio the Sixth]

The only thing that gives me solace about a possible future M5S government is that they're far too comically incompetent to successfully set up a dictatorship. But no doubt they will try.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It would be like their VERY SUCCESSFUL municipal admin in Rome but on a larger scale.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It would be like their VERY SUCCESSFUL municipal admin in Rome but on a larger scale.

Precisely. It would be depressing, but in a somewhat entertaining way.


Anyway, a while ago I made a "who should I vote for?" flowchart with current Italian parties. It's slightly outdated (it was made when Renzi was still PM) but still largely holds. There it is:


(click for large version)

Curious what everybody gets!

[justfollowingtheelections]

I got PD lol

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The first question could be "is Renzi TERRIBLE SCUM" tbh

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

[Antonio the Sixth]

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True, but then almost everybody here would end up on the government side (for the same reason I didn't put "Yes" as the pro-Renzi answer, because then everybody would have been on the opposition side).

I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

Didn't know you were so into great figures of Italian communism.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

Didn't know you were so into great figures of Italian communism.

If I would be Italian communist I would really care about people like Gramsci or Togliatti. I prefer old-school communism not some new left sh**t with fancy, minimalist logos. Nowadays real communist parties have member which are more than 50 years old generally, politics should be thing for old people (Italy is kinda doing great with that).

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

Didn't know you were so into great figures of Italian communism.

If I would be Italian communist I would really care about people like Gramsci or Togliatti. I prefer old-school communism not some new left sh**t with fancy, minimalist logos. Nowadays real communist parties have member which are more than 50 years old generally, politics should be thing for old people (Italy is kinda doing great with that).

I take it you're not much of a Renzi fan, then.

(I definitely agree with you on political aesthetics, fwiw. To be clear, SI is not a full-blown New Left party - I'd say it has a healthy balance of old and new.)

[Intell]

I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

As did I, probably would vote them, the Italian left or the five star movement. I view communism as the ideology for the past, while I don't really like the ceartin aspects of social liberalism, gone extreme of the Italian Left. I like the eurosceptism of the five star movement, and their destruction of the modern political right, so will probably vote for them.

Don't hate Renzi, but don't think situations in Italy are optimal, and don't like renzi, the god awful referendum, labour reforms, neoliberalism, his circle jerk support for the EU along with its  neoliberalism and austerity social liberalism.

Probably would for five star movement, quite hesitantly though. Could be persuaded to vote for the Italian Left, if they're not dingbants, or the refounded communists if they're a big tent party of multiple forms of socialism.

[SPQR]

I don't know how but I got Partito della Rifondazione Comunista :I

As did I, probably would vote them, the Italian left or the five star movement. I view communism as the ideology for the past, while I don't really like the ceartin aspects of social liberalism, gone extreme of the Italian Left. I like the eurosceptism of the five star movement, and their destruction of the modern political right, so will probably vote for them.

Don't hate Renzi, but don't think situations in Italy are optimal, and don't like renzi, the god awful referendum, labour reforms, neoliberalism, his circle jerk support for the EU along with its  neoliberalism and austerity social liberalism.

Probably would for five star movement, quite hesitantly though. Could be persuaded to vote for the Italian Left, if they're not dingbants, or the refounded communists if they're a big tent party of multiple forms of socialism.

You're aware that the Five Star Movement is a populist, pro-Putin, protofascist movement, right?