Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Polkergeist]

At first blush, I think a problem with this system is how the Alliances will determine their FPTP candidates.

Will the largest party in the coalition take all the FPTP candidacies?

Will they be split proportionally between the parties in an alliance? If so what proportion?

There is also the issue of which party will get the safe seats, marginal seats, no-chance seats for an alliance.

Presumably this is all down to negotiation between the parties inside an alliance, however this is a source of instability in itself.

[parochial boy]

At first blush, I think a problem with this system is how the Alliances will determine their FPTP candidates.

Will the largest party in the coalition take all the FPTP candidacies?

Will they be split proportionally between the parties in an alliance? If so what proportion?

There is also the issue of which party will get the safe seats, marginal seats, no-chance seats for an alliance.

Presumably this is all down to negotiation between the parties inside an alliance, however this is a source of instability in itself.

I imagine it might work somehow similarly to the way it currently does in France - at which point the risk would be that smaller parties end up as indistinguishable annexes of the larger ones.

[SPQR]

At first blush, I think a problem with this system is how the Alliances will determine their FPTP candidates.

Will the largest party in the coalition take all the FPTP candidacies?

Will they be split proportionally between the parties in an alliance? If so what proportion?

There is also the issue of which party will get the safe seats, marginal seats, no-chance seats for an alliance.

Presumably this is all down to negotiation between the parties inside an alliance, however this is a source of instability in itself.

That's a big deal for the center-right, if it is to get into a coalition, since the Lega Nord would probably want most of the Northern seats, where they would probably win. But that way Forza Italia would probably lose its status of center-right's main party, at least in terms of seats.

[jaichind]

So FI and LN will be in an alliance right?  What about Fdl and AP?  Will they join up?  I assume Fdl is more likely than AP given how NCD broke up.  A FI-LN-Fdl-AP alliance will be quite competitive with PD and MS5. 

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Italian politics explained to the world: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Toc6bckx4Ng

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

So, today there are local elections in Sicily. PD will almost surely lose so main race is between M5S and berlusconian centre-right. Turnout for 12 p.m was ca. 9%.

[SPQR]

So, today there are local elections in Sicily. PD will almost surely lose so main race is between M5S and berlusconian centre-right. Turnout for 12 p.m was ca. 9%.

Yep, pretty much.
PD only won last time because the right was split between the more centrist Micciché and the right-winger Musumeci. This time instead they all united behind Musumeci. Polls give him a very, very tiny lead over M5S's Cancelleri.
At the same time, MDP and the left-wingers chose a different candidate from PD's Micari, Fava. So the two things to watch will be the winners between Musumeci and Cancelleri (both polling in the mid-30's, so neither will have a majority in the regional house of deputies), and between Micari and Fava.

At the same time, there are also municipal elections in Ostia, one of Rome's 15 municipalities (the only one on the sea). It was put under the administration of an external commissioner after Mafia Capitale and the arrest of its former president, PD's Tassone. Since then, both the M5S (which won with record numbers the Roman elections in 2016) and Casapound's neofascists have done very well, also thanks to...dubious connections with the local criminal families.
Today is only the first round, and it's widely expected that M5S and the right (which has already said it would gladly receive Casapound's endorsement in the second round) will get the first two places. Turnout should be really low, though, also because of a thundestorm throughout the day.

[Mike88]

Sicily regional election, Exit Poll:

36-40% Center-Right
33-37% Mov. 5 Stars
16-20% Center-Left
  6-10% Left

[FredLindq]

Sicily regional election 572/5300 sections counted

40,1% Center-Right
34,6% Mov. 5 Stars
18,7% Center-Left
5,9% Left
0,7% Others

Strongly leans centre-right

[jaichind]

With 32% of votes counted RAI projection are

38%  Center-Right
36%  M5S
18%  Center-Left
7%    Left

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What happened to that gay communist that was randomly leader? Not popular?

[SPQR]

What happened to that gay communist that was randomly leader? Not popular?

Retired from politics after a few bad results from SeL.
Anyway, all as expected in Sicily. As bad as expected for PD, extremely disappointing for M5S, who were close to winning the region already in the 2013 general elections.

Meanwhile, scary results in Ostia. M5S and the right go to the second round, PD is third with 13%...and fourth come the neo-fascists ("third-millenium fascists" is how they consider themselves) of Casapound with 9%.

[FrancoAgo]

Sicily
5300/5300

Cancelleri (M5S) 34,7%, 1 seat
Fava (Left coalition) 6,1%
Micari (PD coalition) 18,7%
Musumeci (Right coalition) 39,8%, 7 seats
La Rosa (Independist) 0,7%


2012 results for comparation

Crocetta (PD coalition, with a center right party (now with the right coalition)) 30,5%
Musumeci (Right coalition) 25,7%
Cancelleri (M5S) 18,2%
Miccichè (local Right coalition, now with the Right coalition) 15,4%
Marano (Left coalition and Di Pietro's party) 6,1%
Ferro (right populist, now with the right coalition) 1,6%
De Luca (right populist and far right, now with the right coalition) 1,2%
Sturzo 1% (independent, centrist)
Di Leo 0,2% (Communist)
Pinsone 0,2% (right populist)

[FrancoAgo]

Sicily
party list results

Forza Italia 16,4%, 12 seats
Local center right coalition 7,1%, 5 seats
UDC & allies, 7%, 5 seats
Musumeci list, 6%, 4 seats
Right coalition, 5,6% 3 seats

M5S 26,7%, 19 seats

PD 13%, 11 seats
Local center-center left coalition 6%, 2 seats
Alfano's party 4,2%, 0 seat
Micari list, 2,2%, 0 seat

Left coalition 5,2%, 1 seat

Free Sicilians (Independentist) 0,7%, 0 seat

2012 results

PD 13,4%, 14 seats (in 2012 there were 90 seats, today 70)
UDC 10,8%, 11 seats
Crocetta list with minor allies 6,2%, 5 seats

PdL 12,9%, 12 seats
Local center right party 5,9%, 4 seats
Musumeci list 5,6%, 4 seats
minor center right party 0,3%, 0 seat

M5S 14,9%, 15 seats

Lombardo's southern center right party 9,5%, 10 seats
Miccichè southern center right party 6%, 5 seats
Fini's party 4,4%, 0 seat

Di Pietro's party 3,5%, 0 seat
Left coalition 3,1%, 0 seat

Ferro's list 1,2%

Cateno's list 1,2%

Sturzo's list 0,8%

Workers' Communist party 0,1%

Pinsone list 0,1%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh, so Musumenci has a majority. Great.

Get ready for Berlusconi'2018.

[Soonerdem]

Ugh, so Musumenci has a majority. Great.

Get ready for Berlusconi'2018.

Berlusconi part 4: “at least my disasters are entertaining”

[jaichind]

Looks like polling trends after the Sicily election has been a shift away from PD.  It seems if FI-LN-FdI alliance can hold it is in a good position come out first place.   

[Illiniwek]

Watch Italy missing the World Cup lead to an anti-establishment surge. Frankly, I'd be more willing to shares in M5S than I was yesterday...

[MAINEiac4434]

Watch Italy missing the World Cup lead to an anti-establishment surge. Frankly, I'd be more willing to shares in M5S than I was yesterday...

No US, Italy or Netherlands in the World Cup. Madness.

[mvd10]

Is Berlusconi even allowed to hold office?

No. Rumour has it that president of the European Parliament Antonio Tajani (also a former Berlusconi aide) will become PM if Berlusconi wins the elections. Ironically Tajani advocated for European taxes just today, and I don't think that will go over well with LN.

[jaichind]

Latest IXE poll

PD    23.8%
M5S  27.9%
FI     15.5%
LN    13.5%
FYI     4.8%

Which puts FI-LN-FdI at 33.8%

PD has dropped 3% since late October.

[TheSaint250]

Latest IXE poll

PD    23.8%
M5S  27.9%
FI     15.5%
LN    13.5%
FYI     4.8%

Which puts FI-LN-FdI at 33.8%

PD has dropped 3% since late October.

What is the percentage needed again? 40%?

Also, is there any chance that M5S forms some kind of anti-establishment government coalition with, say Lega Nord and other parties?

[Zuza]

What is the percentage needed again? 40%?

What do you mean? There was a 40 % threshold for majority bonus in the previous electoral law ("Italicum"), but the current law, adopted in 2017, doesn't have majority bonus.

[SPQR]

With the current law, it all depends on the uninominal seats. By winning almost all tossups, one could obtain an absolute majority even with around 37% of the vote.

[TheSaint250]

Ok thanks everyone