Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[mappix]

I also have to add that the issues of regional autonomies are a lot wider and the debate in Italy is not only focused on South Tyrol but also other regions.

Speaking of which; are Veneto and Lombardy still trying to push for their own autonomy? Or were the referendums last October as pointless as they seemed?

I have not seen any progress at the moment, perhaps this issue will be discussed by the new government. I know that Piedmont too wanted to have talks with the government about more autonomy.

[mappix]

These are the definitive constituencies for 37% of the parliamentary seats elected using the FPTP system

for the Chamber of Deputies


for the Senate

[FrancoAgo]

Someones has how many deputies and senators will be elected for each plurinominal college?

[mappix]

Someones has how many deputies and senators will be elected for each plurinominal college?

https://infogram.com/collegi-rosatellum-1gk92e7x0k37p16 (scroll down)

[Antonio the Sixth]

I still can't get my head around how ridiculously awful a voting system the Rosatellum is.

[FrancoAgo]

https://infogram.com/collegi-rosatellum-1gk92e7x0k37p16 (scroll down)

thx but this is not a reply to my question
this give only how many deputies for regions not for plurinominal college

[mappix]

Mappix i want help you to get the map quorum.
The elections of representation is only a small part how democracy works and imo is not a compulsory part, and the only elections of representation is away from a democracy.
There was not a majority come out of elections in 1994.
Pereception is important because can be easily manipulated todays more that same time ago

I did not notice at first, but what do you mean when you say elections are not compulsory?

[SPQR]

Does anyone know ?

Questions for Italian posters:

* How likely is it that the Right Bloc will form a government with M5S after the election, if they fail to win a majority of seats on their own ? What are the other most likely coalitions then ?

* What are the positions of the major Italian parties (or what did their representatives say in recent days) about ÖVP/FPÖ's proposal to offer Austrian citizenship to South Tyrolians ? I know that the right-wing Fratelli d'Italia spoke out against it, but what about the Democratic Party, the M5S, Lega etc. ?

Thx.

Thanks.

Didn't know that Italians are fed up with South Tyrolian autonomy ...

They should actually be happy about it, because South Tyrol is the wealthiest and most advanced region in Italy because of that autonomy statute and they (together with Trient) are shoveling billions of €s in surplus money to Rome every year to prop up the weaker Center of Italy and especially the South.

The case you mentioned is a bit of a false myth really. These autonomous provinces manage to keep 90% of the taxes for themselves, and hostility comes a lot from Lombardy and Veneto, wealthy regions who have to contribute for a larger margin. Veneto especially has experienced the detachment of some municipalities that have joined the autonomous region of Friuli to get a better fiscal regime. The center of Italy is not that weak as well.

The fiscal reasons for hostility are mixed with historical reasons, as you probably know some South Tyroleans are hostile towards Italians for the forced annexation of their land after the Austrian defeat in WWI, the fascist prosecutions under Mussolini and some restrictions on cultural identity even in the after-war period. Some Italians are hostile towards South Tyroleans for the racist contempt they experience from them, the terrorist attacks that prompted the Democrazia Cristiana to grant an unprecedented autonomy to this province in order to make violence cease, and the fact that many terrorists are celebrated in local TVs and streets names as freedom fighters. I wonder what would happen if Italians celebrated fascist thugs in such ways. Some terrorists have escaped justice for the victims they made and are now living in Austria or Germany and are still involved in anti-Italian activities.

Having experienced this hostility on myself as a tourist there, but also having met lovely people from South Tyrol, I have to say the fiscal autonomy is partly put to very good use to provide excellent services, but also partly wasted in a very "Italian" way. Some separatist South Tyrolean politicians are even more Italian than they will ever admit . Examples of those "Italian political customs" are: the outrageous retributions of local politicians - the President of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen has a salary that matches the head of state's; the scandalous amount of local politicians' annuities despite recent cuts; the defense of those annuities, with a national debate sparkled when a South Tyrolean politician often contemptuous towards Italy, Eva Klotz - daughter of one of the aforementioned "freedom fighters" - defended her retribution funded not only by local but also national taxes; the practice of rigged public contracts to favor some local enterprises; the creation of useless administrative substructures for political reasons.

With a nationalist government in Austria I expect these local politicians to use the situation to get even more favorable deals, probably adding fuel to the fire.

Pretty much this.
Anywhow all parties reacted quite angrily to the proposal, from what I remember.

Anyway, latest projections give the center-right 20 seats away from an absolute majority in the Senate, thanks also to the sweeping of almost all northern seats.

IMHO, the main things to watch in the election will be:
1) Who will be the first party: M5S (as polls currently suggest) or PD? This could influence Mattarella's decision on who will hold the first talks in an attempt to have a working majority.
2) Will the center-right get an absolute majority in both the house and the senate? Will its smaller parties (animalists, centrists, Tremonti and Sgarbi's party...) push it over the line?
3) Will LeU crash and burn relatively to the polls (think of Sinistra Arcobaleno in 2008 and Rivoluzione Civile in 2013)? How many uninominal seats will it cost to the center-left coalition?


As for the center-left coalition, it should be composed of: PD, Civica Popolare (centrist list led by Lorenzin, Minister of Health, together with Casini, former head of UDC and speaker of the Lower House between 2001 and 2006, and Dellai, former president of the province of Trento), Insieme (Greens, Socialists and some former Prodi followers), and it should also include Bonino's pro-Europe list (but it will be formalized next week).

[Tender Branson]

Thanks.

Didn't know that Italians are fed up with South Tyrolian autonomy ...

They should actually be happy about it, because South Tyrol is the wealthiest and most advanced region in Italy because of that autonomy statute and they (together with Trient) are shoveling billions of €s in surplus money to Rome every year to prop up the weaker Center of Italy and especially the South.

The case you mentioned is a bit of a false myth really. These autonomous provinces manage to keep 90% of the taxes for themselves, and hostility comes a lot from Lombardy and Veneto, wealthy regions who have to contribute for a larger margin. Veneto especially has experienced the detachment of some municipalities that have joined the autonomous region of Friuli to get a better fiscal regime. The center of Italy is not that weak as well.

The fiscal reasons for hostility are mixed with historical reasons, as you probably know some South Tyroleans are hostile towards Italians for the forced annexation of their land after the Austrian defeat in WWI, the fascist prosecutions under Mussolini and some restrictions on cultural identity even in the after-war period. Some Italians are hostile towards South Tyroleans for the racist contempt they experience from them, the terrorist attacks that prompted the Democrazia Cristiana to grant an unprecedented autonomy to this province in order to make violence cease, and the fact that many terrorists are celebrated in local TVs and streets names as freedom fighters. I wonder what would happen if Italians celebrated fascist thugs in such ways. Some terrorists have escaped justice for the victims they made and are now living in Austria or Germany and are still involved in anti-Italian activities.

Having experienced this hostility on myself as a tourist there, but also having met lovely people from South Tyrol, I have to say the fiscal autonomy is partly put to very good use to provide excellent services, but also partly wasted in a very "Italian" way. Some separatist South Tyrolean politicians are even more Italian than they will ever admit . Examples of those "Italian political customs" are: the outrageous retributions of local politicians - the President of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen has a salary that matches the head of state's; the scandalous amount of local politicians' annuities despite recent cuts; the defense of those annuities, with a national debate sparkled when a South Tyrolean politician often contemptuous towards Italy, Eva Klotz - daughter of one of the aforementioned "freedom fighters" - defended her retribution funded not only by local but also national taxes; the practice of rigged public contracts to favor some local enterprises; the creation of useless administrative substructures for political reasons.

With a nationalist government in Austria I expect these local politicians to use the situation to get even more favorable deals, probably adding fuel to the fire.

A lot of what you say is true of course, but the Italian discontent seems to be based on historic developments that are pretty meaningless right now (such as the - understandable* - terrorist/FF actions by South Tyrolians) and also some kind of envy economically and financially. While you are right that - in theory - 90% of taxes remain in the autnomous regions, in practice this is often not the case as Rome takes some 50 years to repay the taxes they are collecting from these wealthy regions. Besides, South Tyrol and Co. have much larger regional budgets than other Italian regions and therefore pay a lot more taxes to Rome per capita. Previous Italian governments often sought to milk the richer regions, because Rome is extremely incompetent and wasteful itself when it comes to money.

*understandable, that in a sense the Allied Forces were extremely stupid to award South Tyrol to Italy after WW1. A region that was 95% Tyrolian and part of Tyrol and a different culture and language in general. Just another example how stupid politicians can be, as they do not understand the situation on the ground and like to look at maps and tear peoples apart. Besides, Italy used to brutally colonize and Italianize South Tyrol after 1918, committing many human rights abuses in the population. Which of course led to resistance and "terrorism" (I'm leaning more towards FFs). Still, this is a thing of the past and the autonomy statutes today are an example for other regions in the World such as Catalonia. If you allow them to have greater autonomy, the chances are higher that the money is spent wisely on the regional level rather than being wasted in an inefficient and corrupt way - like in Rome. Rome could learn a thing or two from South Tyrol, especially on the economy, school system, public transport, the environment and unemployment.

[mappix]

A lot of what you say is true of course, but the Italian discontent seems to be based on historic developments that are pretty meaningless right now (such as the - understandable* - terrorist/FF actions by South Tyrolians) and also some kind of envy economically and financially. While you are right that - in theory - 90% of taxes remain in the autnomous regions, in practice this is often not the case as Rome takes some 50 years to repay the taxes they are collecting from these wealthy regions. Besides, South Tyrol and Co. have much larger regional budgets than other Italian regions and therefore pay a lot more taxes to Rome per capita. Previous Italian governments often sought to milk the richer regions, because Rome is extremely incompetent and wasteful itself when it comes to money.

*understandable, that in a sense the Allied Forces were extremely stupid to award South Tyrol to Italy after WW1. A region that was 95% Tyrolian and part of Tyrol and a different culture and language in general. Just another example how stupid politicians can be, as they do not understand the situation on the ground and like to look at maps and tear peoples apart. Besides, Italy used to brutally colonize and Italianize South Tyrol after 1918, committing many human rights abuses in the population. Which of course led to resistance and "terrorism" (I'm leaning more towards FFs). Still, this is a thing of the past and the autonomy statutes today are an example for other regions in the World such as Catalonia. If you allow them to have greater autonomy, the chances are higher that the money is spent wisely on the regional level rather than being wasted in an inefficient and corrupt way - like in Rome. Rome could learn a thing or two from South Tyrol, especially on the economy, school system, public transport, the environment and unemployment.

As for autonomy, if I remember correctly, South Tyrol enjoys a larger power by being an autonomous province within Italy and would probably have a reduced status as an Austrian Land. But as I said previously, reading the comments here and there - mostly on social media or newspapers - about this issue, some Italians are inclined to say goodbye to Alto Adige/South Tyrol just to avoid listening to any further polemics about taxation, oppression, racial differences, superiority vs inefficiency and so on.

[Tender Branson]

A lot of what you say is true of course, but the Italian discontent seems to be based on historic developments that are pretty meaningless right now (such as the - understandable* - terrorist/FF actions by South Tyrolians) and also some kind of envy economically and financially. While you are right that - in theory - 90% of taxes remain in the autnomous regions, in practice this is often not the case as Rome takes some 50 years to repay the taxes they are collecting from these wealthy regions. Besides, South Tyrol and Co. have much larger regional budgets than other Italian regions and therefore pay a lot more taxes to Rome per capita. Previous Italian governments often sought to milk the richer regions, because Rome is extremely incompetent and wasteful itself when it comes to money.

*understandable, that in a sense the Allied Forces were extremely stupid to award South Tyrol to Italy after WW1. A region that was 95% Tyrolian and part of Tyrol and a different culture and language in general. Just another example how stupid politicians can be, as they do not understand the situation on the ground and like to look at maps and tear peoples apart. Besides, Italy used to brutally colonize and Italianize South Tyrol after 1918, committing many human rights abuses in the population. Which of course led to resistance and "terrorism" (I'm leaning more towards FFs). Still, this is a thing of the past and the autonomy statutes today are an example for other regions in the World such as Catalonia. If you allow them to have greater autonomy, the chances are higher that the money is spent wisely on the regional level rather than being wasted in an inefficient and corrupt way - like in Rome. Rome could learn a thing or two from South Tyrol, especially on the economy, school system, public transport, the environment and unemployment.

As for autonomy, if I remember correctly, South Tyrol enjoys a larger power by being an autonomous province within Italy and would probably have a reduced status as an Austrian Land. But as I said previously, reading the comments here and there - mostly on social media or newspapers - about this issue, some Italians are inclined to say goodbye to Alto Adige/South Tyrol just to avoid listening to any further polemics about taxation, oppression, racial differences, superiority vs inefficiency and so on.

That's exactly what I have argued all the time ... that autonomy within Italy is the best thing for them and I assume that South Tyrolians would even uphold that status-quo in a referendum.

That's why I also favour the status-quo.

See my thread here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278485.0

[FrancoAgo]

I did not notice at first, but what do you mean when you say elections are not compulsory?

the elections of representation are not a compulsory part of democracy, it can be a democracy w/o elections of representation (representation as is commonly understood)

[mappix]

the elections of representation are not a compulsory part of democracy, it can be a democracy w/o elections of representation (representation as is commonly understood)

I might have missed some part but I was talking about a representative democracy whose core is based on free elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

These are the definitive constituencies for 37% of the parliamentary seats elected using the FPTP system

Can you link to more detailed versions if they exist? Wouldn't mind doing a larger one with insets for urban areas if possible...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Btw, for those who have not seen these before:

[mappix]

Can you link to more detailed versions if they exist? Wouldn't mind doing a larger one with insets for urban areas if possible...

No unfortunately. I have just this link for the constituencies of the chamber of deputies
http://documenti.camera.it/Leg17/Dossier/Pdf/AC0760A.Pdf

[parochial boy]

Lol at the particular Lega strength in Northern Lombardy. Many of those voters presumably work in Ticino; which is delightfully fitting, in a way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I remember those! I'd love to see 1996 some day.

[Diouf]

Centre-right coalition formalized

[jaichind]

Centre-right coalition formalized

Is Ncl going to be part of the Center-right coalition since I do not seem them represented in this picture ?

[SPQR]

Centre-right coalition formalized

Is Ncl going to be part of the Center-right coalition since I do not seem them represented in this picture ?

NCD doesn't exist anymore.
Alfano won't run, a part went to the center-right coalition in the centrist "Quarto Polo", while others (such as Lorenzin) will be part of the center-left coalition in the "Civica Popolare" list.

[jaichind]

NCD doesn't exist anymore.
Alfano won't run, a part went to the center-right coalition in the centrist "Quarto Polo", while others (such as Lorenzin) will be part of the center-left coalition in the "Civica Popolare" list.

I was not talking about NCD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Centre-Right

Instead I was referring to Ncl
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_with_Italy

My understanding was that Ncl will be part of the FI LN Fdl alliance.  Not sure if that took place ?

[SPQR]

NCD doesn't exist anymore.
Alfano won't run, a part went to the center-right coalition in the centrist "Quarto Polo", while others (such as Lorenzin) will be part of the center-left coalition in the "Civica Popolare" list.

I was not talking about NCD
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Centre-Right

Instead I was referring to Ncl
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_with_Italy

My understanding was that Ncl will be part of the FI LN Fdl alliance.  Not sure if that took place ?

Oh, ok. Yes, they are the "Quarto Polo" I was referring to.
Anyway, nobody here refers to these new parties with their acronyms, hence the confusion (also because presumably they will disappear the day after the elections).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Can you link to more detailed versions if they exist? Wouldn't mind doing a larger one with insets for urban areas if possible...

No unfortunately. I have just this link for the constituencies of the chamber of deputies
http://documenti.camera.it/Leg17/Dossier/Pdf/AC0760A.Pdf

Oh but this is perfect actually! A Map will appear at some point before the election.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I remember those! I'd love to see 1996 some day.

Certainly tempting - I had to pause the general project because o/c there were too many big active elections ongoing last year to concentrate on historical maps and I can only do these things in my spare time now. What I'll probably do - I have something relating to the last British GE to finish first - is do a PSI map for my own personal amusement, and then have a go at some for '96.