Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
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  Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide  (Read 291602 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1250 on: January 08, 2018, 10:30:15 PM »

I remember those! I'd love to see 1996 some day.

Certainly tempting - I had to pause the general project because o/c there were too many big active elections ongoing last year to concentrate on historical maps and I can only do these things in my spare time now. What I'll probably do - I have something relating to the last British GE to finish first - is do a PSI map for my own personal amusement, and then have a go at some for '96.

Wonderful news! Cheesy
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mappix
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« Reply #1251 on: January 15, 2018, 04:24:39 AM »

If you want to know more about the electoral law, the constituencies and the possible outcomes there's a specific website where you can register: http://rosatellum.info/
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #1252 on: January 15, 2018, 01:11:27 PM »

If you want to know more about the electoral law, the constituencies and the possible outcomes there's a specific website where you can register: http://rosatellum.info/


It won't be for free, though.
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #1253 on: January 17, 2018, 04:29:18 AM »

If you want to know more about the electoral law, the constituencies and the possible outcomes there's a specific website where you can register: http://rosatellum.info/


It won't be for free, though.

The website is out - 490 euros for a one-year subscription...
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #1254 on: January 17, 2018, 04:48:30 AM »


The website is out - 490 euros for a one-year subscription...

significa che stanno fuori di testa? anche in inglese?

sorry for my use of the italian
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #1255 on: January 17, 2018, 09:33:44 AM »


The website is out - 490 euros for a one-year subscription...

significa che stanno fuori di testa? anche in inglese?

sorry for my use of the italian
Rather than giving them 500 euros I'll develop a mini-model myself during my study breaks!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1256 on: January 20, 2018, 07:29:29 AM »

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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1257 on: January 20, 2018, 03:20:43 PM »

Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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mappix
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« Reply #1258 on: January 23, 2018, 06:40:26 PM »

Here's another website forecasting the possible outcomes for the fptp constituencies: http://www.duetredue.org/
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1259 on: January 24, 2018, 02:51:29 PM »

5Stars consider post-election pact with far right

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Question for anyone who knows: Does Di Maio lean left, or is he just trying to find a somewhat Eurosceptic group that isn't Legal Nord?

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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #1260 on: January 28, 2018, 12:45:21 AM »


I swear to God, if Berlusconi somehow gets back into power I think we need to dissolve Italy as a country and reestablish the Papal States. Haha.

But seriously, how is this guy still taken seriously?
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Bojicat
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« Reply #1261 on: January 29, 2018, 04:36:29 PM »

Thanks, Andy Hogan.

Berlusconi was banned from holding office in 2012 by a Milan Court. He cannot re-participate until 2019 (I'm sure this has been brought up/commented on already). I don't believe he can work a miracle and get a reprieve from the European Court of Human Rights by March, or even by year-end. He's not getting back into power. He'll just remain a gray eminence, a Grande Monsieur of the Right.

And yes, the prognostication for Italy's next Prime Minister is trending Right, as most of us have noted. Who will be that masked man?

Frankly, who cares anymore? The country's lost.

Italy will trudge through a procession of middling, feckless prime ministers unable to handle, even nudge, the state's calcified, faceless apparatchiks, who will lord it over Italians for as long as the universe expands. There's no HMS Carpathia in sight. I think it's hopeless.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1262 on: January 29, 2018, 08:31:27 PM »

Actually that's an interesting thing - in an unintended and quite unnoticed way Italian politics has returned to old habits (supposedly banished forever with the fall of the First Republic) in that formal office has become decoupled from political power, with the position of a politician within his/her party often mattering more than any governmental post.
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SPQR
italian-boy
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« Reply #1263 on: January 30, 2018, 03:19:55 PM »

Actually that's an interesting thing - in an unintended and quite unnoticed way Italian politics has returned to old habits (supposedly banished forever with the fall of the First Republic) in that formal office has become decoupled from political power, with the position of a politician within his/her party often mattering more than any governmental post.

It was a pretty obvious consequence of the result of the constitutional referendum.

Back to the First Republic, back to a PR system. It's actually a semi-miracle that there is an uninominal component in the electoral law.
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FrancoAgo
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« Reply #1264 on: January 30, 2018, 04:53:52 PM »


It was a pretty obvious consequence of the result of the constitutional referendum.

Back to the First Republic, back to a PR system. It's actually a semi-miracle that there is an uninominal component in the electoral law.
w/o the FPTP component the electoral law would have been better, and there would be not danger of a new right-wing government
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1265 on: February 04, 2018, 02:00:51 AM »

Gunman targets African migrants in Italy's Macerata

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http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42930749
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1266 on: February 04, 2018, 02:16:23 AM »

Here is more background on the 18-year old Italian girl that was killed and dismembered by that Nigerian immigrant:



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http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2018/02/01/nigerian-charged-with-murdering-dismembered-teen-4_2a33e0f2-0052-4c4c-b1c3-63ff948c0ad3.html
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1267 on: February 04, 2018, 05:00:24 PM »

OK, something I have been wondering about - can anyone explain what the... purpose of the minor parties in the Centre-Left coalition are? like, who are pro-europa and why are they standing?
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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #1268 on: February 04, 2018, 05:28:07 PM »

OK, something I have been wondering about - can anyone explain what the... purpose of the minor parties in the Centre-Left coalition are? like, who are pro-europa and why are they standing?


Good question.
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #1269 on: February 04, 2018, 05:38:28 PM »

Great, just what we need is another Tender's crime thread...
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Mazda
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« Reply #1270 on: February 04, 2018, 06:05:23 PM »

OK, something I have been wondering about - can anyone explain what the... purpose of the minor parties in the Centre-Left coalition are? like, who are pro-europa and why are they standing?
Italian politics is a wasteland of splinter groups and micro-parties, and it is felt in the major parties that some of these groups have enough quality people in them to be worth allying with.

For instance, Piu Europa are made up of tiny splinter parties led by Benedetto della Vedova (elected last time in alliance with Forza Italia but now a junior minister for the PD government), Emma Bonino (formerly a presidential candidate and Foreign Secretary), Bruno Tabacci (a former Christian Democrat who has been around forever) and another group who are basically pointless but have three deputies. Piu Europa therefore has enough decent people and enough of a distinct brand to appeal to liberals who might not otherwise vote for PD, and the coalition will therefore benefit electorally.

The reason why micro-parties have so many decent people is because the party system in Italy is constantly changing (for instance, Insieme includes the Greens, who used to be quite a major centre-left ally but subsequently collapsed, but there are still a lot of former Green deputies involved with the party and some of them aren't awful) and was obviously completely reshaped in 1994. Della Vedova and Bonino were prominent figures in the Italian Radical Party, which was relatively important in the 1970s and 80s, but made some stupid decisions and now the former Radicals are spread far and wide in different clientelist micro-parties and factions within major parties.

The clientelism is also key, of course.
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EPG
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« Reply #1271 on: February 05, 2018, 02:54:09 AM »

There are several European countries with regular multi-party coalitions, but in Italy participants seem to change sides more often than in, say, Sweden. Italy has a low-trust political system at elite level - would you trust Renzi or Berlusconi to respect you once you join their party? However, the Italian electoral law rewards finishing in first position around the country, which implies that big blocs beat small ones. This means

Low trustHigh trust
Rules reward positionPre-election negotiated coalitionsBig parties
Rules are proportionalPost-election negotiated coalitionsRecurring coalitions
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italian-boy
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« Reply #1272 on: February 05, 2018, 06:47:21 AM »

OK, something I have been wondering about - can anyone explain what the... purpose of the minor parties in the Centre-Left coalition are? like, who are pro-europa and why are they standing?
Italian politics is a wasteland of splinter groups and micro-parties, and it is felt in the major parties that some of these groups have enough quality people in them to be worth allying with.

For instance, Piu Europa are made up of tiny splinter parties led by Benedetto della Vedova (elected last time in alliance with Forza Italia but now a junior minister for the PD government), Emma Bonino (formerly a presidential candidate and Foreign Secretary), Bruno Tabacci (a former Christian Democrat who has been around forever) and another group who are basically pointless but have three deputies. Piu Europa therefore has enough decent people and enough of a distinct brand to appeal to liberals who might not otherwise vote for PD, and the coalition will therefore benefit electorally.

The reason why micro-parties have so many decent people is because the party system in Italy is constantly changing (for instance, Insieme includes the Greens, who used to be quite a major centre-left ally but subsequently collapsed, but there are still a lot of former Green deputies involved with the party and some of them aren't awful) and was obviously completely reshaped in 1994. Della Vedova and Bonino were prominent figures in the Italian Radical Party, which was relatively important in the 1970s and 80s, but made some stupid decisions and now the former Radicals are spread far and wide in different clientelist micro-parties and factions within major parties.

The clientelism is also key, of course.
This.
Insieme also contains the PSI, Italian Socialist Party, which is obviously the shadow of what it used to be, but can still get a few votes here and there.
Civica Popolare, instead, is the centrist party of Health Minister Lorenzin, and other people who used to be with Alfano in NCD and then decided not to rejoin the center-right coalition, together with former House Speaker Pierferdinando Casini (who has been controversially given the Bologna district for the Senate).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1273 on: February 05, 2018, 12:54:07 PM »

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/05/silvio-berlusconi-says-illegal-migrants-social-time-bomb-race/

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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/05/berlusconi-pledges-to-deport-600000-illegal-immigrants-italy-election
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Diouf
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« Reply #1274 on: February 05, 2018, 01:47:10 PM »

YouTrend seat projections:



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