Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:19:09 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 47 48 49 50 51 [52] 53 54 55 56 57 ... 84
Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide  (Read 291627 times)
Bojicat
Rookie
**
Posts: 51
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1275 on: February 05, 2018, 05:00:41 PM »


Amazing cheek that the same fellow who denounces an immigrant explosion and crime wave associated with it had signed the 2003 EU refugee pact that brought this all about.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1276 on: February 05, 2018, 06:27:54 PM »

OK, something I have been wondering about - can anyone explain what the... purpose of the minor parties in the Centre-Left coalition are? like, who are pro-europa and why are they standing?

If I remember to/have the time I think I'm going to produce one of my famous Guides.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1277 on: February 06, 2018, 07:33:19 AM »


Amazing cheek that the same fellow who denounces an immigrant explosion and crime wave associated with it had signed the 2003 EU refugee pact that brought this all about.

And the Five Star Movement voted against its reform in the EU Parliament, only a few months ago...
Logged
Leftbehind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,639
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1278 on: February 06, 2018, 10:04:34 AM »
« Edited: February 06, 2018, 10:58:33 AM by Leftbehind »

Any further on what M5S is hoping to achieve from this election. On the last page there was an article posted saying they were considering a pact with Lega Nord, who are already part of the Right coalition?? If the Right don't manage a majority, what then? Possibility enough right-leaning M5S members defect, or effectively provide them confidence?
Logged
RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1279 on: February 06, 2018, 07:11:09 PM »

Any further on what M5S is hoping to achieve from this election. On the last page there was an article posted saying they were considering a pact with Lega Nord, who are already part of the Right coalition?? If the Right don't manage a majority, what then? Possibility enough right-leaning M5S members defect, or effectively provide them confidence?
By now, who's most likely PM? Would Berlusconi's people accept to keep Gentiloni to not have Renzi again? And would a M5S minority work?
Logged
Pennsylvania Deplorable
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 532


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1280 on: February 06, 2018, 11:55:15 PM »

Does Italy do proportional representation, constituency seats, a combination, or something else entirely? It seems like it would be proportional or similar based on the number of small parties with a shot at representation.
Logged
Mazda
Rookie
**
Posts: 90


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1281 on: February 07, 2018, 01:18:27 AM »

Does Italy do proportional representation, constituency seats, a combination, or something else entirely? It seems like it would be proportional or similar based on the number of small parties with a shot at representation.
A combination of both, which is far more complicated and arcane than it really needs to be. It's a new electoral system for this election, explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_electoral_law_of_2017

They used a completely proportional system from WWII to 1994, but that ended badly. A different completely PR system was used from 2006 until last election, and also ended badly, hence the two -
 count 'em, two - attempts at reform by the current government.
Logged
Bojicat
Rookie
**
Posts: 51
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1282 on: February 07, 2018, 09:49:36 AM »


We are witnessing social disintegration linked to immigration exploding as a red meat issue in Italy.
And the all-but-certain legislative beneficiaries of it (Five Star, the Center-right Coalition), and the likely crumbling that the Center-Left will suffer for some time, we now know reflects a Europe-wide phenomenon. That much is obvious.

But the results of March 4th in Italy are far more important than we realize. Once (as expected) the Center-Right takes the helm, only Greece, Sweden, Portugal and France (somewhat) will remain Left-governed on the Continent. Think of that.

Have we ever seen this in European history, post 1848?

Who foresaw that the Arab Spring (and, in particular, its apotheosis, the Syrian civil war) would also transform Europe?
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1283 on: February 07, 2018, 12:31:11 PM »

Have we ever seen this in European history, post 1848?


seeing as the first social democratic government in the world was in Australia in 1904, I'd say yeah.
Logged
mvd10
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,709


Political Matrix
E: 2.58, S: -2.61

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1284 on: February 07, 2018, 12:43:12 PM »

Have we ever seen this in European history, post 1848?


seeing as the first social democratic government in the world was in Australia in 1904, I'd say yeah.

And let's not forget the late 1990s when all but 2 (or 3?) European countries were governed by the left. Or the 1980s when the right was in power basically everywhere.
Logged
EPG
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 992
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1285 on: February 07, 2018, 02:41:21 PM »
« Edited: February 07, 2018, 02:43:16 PM by EPG »

Does Italy do proportional representation, constituency seats, a combination, or something else entirely? It seems like it would be proportional or similar based on the number of small parties with a shot at representation.

Take a standard FPTP system like UK House of Commons. (Remember FPTP is just a list system of magnitude one.)
Add a national list component based on the constituency vote, but that doesn't balance out the constituency results, it's counted separately. That's the Chamber of Deputies.
Replace national with regional lists. That's the Senate.
Registered living outside Italy? Just the local outside-Italy list.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1286 on: February 07, 2018, 03:19:28 PM »

Any further on what M5S is hoping to achieve from this election. On the last page there was an article posted saying they were considering a pact with Lega Nord, who are already part of the Right coalition?? If the Right don't manage a majority, what then? Possibility enough right-leaning M5S members defect, or effectively provide them confidence?
By now, who's most likely PM? Would Berlusconi's people accept to keep Gentiloni to not have Renzi again? And would a M5S minority work?

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.
Logged
Zuza
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 359
Russian Federation
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1287 on: February 07, 2018, 07:10:32 PM »

Does Italy do proportional representation, constituency seats, a combination, or something else entirely? It seems like it would be proportional or similar based on the number of small parties with a shot at representation.
A combination of both, which is far more complicated and arcane than it really needs to be. It's a new electoral system for this election, explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_electoral_law_of_2017

They used a completely proportional system from WWII to 1994, but that ended badly. A different completely PR system was used from 2006 until last election, and also ended badly, hence the two -
 count 'em, two - attempts at reform by the current government.

If I understand right, it isn't that complicated, just an ordinary parallel voting system, similar to Mattarellum, but with much less FPTP and much more proportional seats.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1288 on: February 07, 2018, 07:28:43 PM »

Does Italy do proportional representation, constituency seats, a combination, or something else entirely? It seems like it would be proportional or similar based on the number of small parties with a shot at representation.
A combination of both, which is far more complicated and arcane than it really needs to be. It's a new electoral system for this election, explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_electoral_law_of_2017

They used a completely proportional system from WWII to 1994, but that ended badly. A different completely PR system was used from 2006 until last election, and also ended badly, hence the two -
 count 'em, two - attempts at reform by the current government.

If I understand right, it isn't that complicated, just an ordinary parallel voting system, similar to Mattarellum, but with much less FPTP and much more proportional seats.
It's gone from a 1:1 to a 2:1 proportional to FPTP split.
Also, voters won't have separate ballots for proportional and FPTP voting, and also won't be able to split their vote between the FPTP candidate and the party for the "proportional part".
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1289 on: February 10, 2018, 10:12:21 AM »

It's gone from a 1:1 to a 2:1 proportional to FPTP split.
Also, voters won't have separate ballots for proportional and FPTP voting, and also won't be able to split their vote between the FPTP candidate and the party for the "proportional part".

Why did the Constitutional Court rule the concept of bonus seats to be unconstitutional? 
Logged
FrancoAgo
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 665
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -6.66, S: -3.33

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1290 on: February 10, 2018, 05:03:27 PM »



Why did the Constitutional Court rule the concept of bonus seats to be unconstitutional? 

If you're talking of the bonus in the italicum law the Court not ruled out the bonus they ruled out the second ballot
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1291 on: February 11, 2018, 02:45:44 AM »

Turnout is expected to be very low this time:

Only between 60-68%, which would be down from 75% in 2013 and 80% in 2008.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,152
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1292 on: February 13, 2018, 12:27:51 PM »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1293 on: February 13, 2018, 02:13:55 PM »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
Logged
parochial boy
parochial_boy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,114


Political Matrix
E: -8.38, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1294 on: February 13, 2018, 05:45:53 PM »

Vague thought about the FPTP vote - glancing at the 2013 results, M5S's support seems to be fairly evenly spread across the country. In which case, they might stand to lose out fairly badly in the FPTP constituencies if polling continues to show a (rough) 3 way split?
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1295 on: February 13, 2018, 05:48:47 PM »

Will 5SM see a backlash in Rome and Turin, I wonder?
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1296 on: February 13, 2018, 06:49:44 PM »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
The M5S membership votes for whatever the leadership decides to, in their fake "direct democracy".
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1297 on: February 13, 2018, 06:50:54 PM »

Vague thought about the FPTP vote - glancing at the 2013 results, M5S's support seems to be fairly evenly spread across the country. In which case, they might stand to lose out fairly badly in the FPTP constituencies if polling continues to show a (rough) 3 way split?
Absolutely.
As it is, they only have 3 safe seats in the Senate, for instance.

And in the South most seats are too close to call between the right and M5S. If the gap increases just a bit, the right might sweep them and gain a majority.
Logged
SPQR
italian-boy
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,705
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1298 on: February 13, 2018, 06:53:06 PM »

Will 5SM see a backlash in Rome and Turin, I wonder?
They'll probably win no seats in Turin. In Rome they'll win a couple in the more degradated peripheric areas, but anyway it'll be interesting to see how they fare after the Raggi administration disaster. Even though it was obvious that Raggi's huge victory in the 2016 run-off was never going to last.
Logged
Mazda
Rookie
**
Posts: 90


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1299 on: February 13, 2018, 07:11:27 PM »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
The M5S membership votes for whatever the leadership decides to, in their fake "direct democracy".
Are the votes rigged, or are the voters just unduly influenced by the opinions of their leaders?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 47 48 49 50 51 [52] 53 54 55 56 57 ... 84  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 12 queries.