Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Sestak]

Silvio i dunno.

Lega are fascists.

[DavidB.]

I consider the League and Silvio fascists.

In that case the word means nothing anymore. I guess this is now a popular pastime in America, but I prefer to stick to the definitions that are actually used in political science. Lega and Fratelli d'Italia are radical right-wing parties, but no fascists. CasaPound and Forza Nuova can be considered to be fascists.

[jaichind]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Projection

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.5%
Forza Italia   14.1%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.5%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.6

[Sestak]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Projection

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.5%
Forza Italia   14.1%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.5%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.6

That's enough for M5S-PD and might not be enough for M5S-Lega, which would be amazing.

[jaichind]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Projection

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.5%
Forza Italia   14.1%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.5%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.6

That's enough for M5S-PD and might not be enough for M5S-Lega, which would be amazing.

Well, I was thinking of M5S-LN-FDI

[Oryxslayer]

I consider the League and Silvio fascists.

Silvio i dunno.

Lega are fascists.

When there are actual Fascist candidates on the ballot, it isn't the best idea to throw that term around. However since Lega is Hard Right Socially/Hard Right economically, it would be correct to use that term - if the Casapound party didn't exist.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In fact everyone should calm down for other reasons: even taking the absolute worst case scenario (from most Atlas posters pov), it's fair to say that the Italian state has its ways of... dealing... with situations like that.

It's also the case that, damn guys, it's extremely early. We're talking about exit poll figures modified for partial results from a handful of selected polling districts. The actual results are coming in, but very slowly and don't assume that early numbers are representative. From an at all left or liberal perspective this election was always going to be extremely bad, we've known that for more than a year.

[Sestak]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Projection

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.5%
Forza Italia   14.1%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.5%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.6

That's enough for M5S-PD and might not be enough for M5S-Lega, which would be amazing.

Well, I was thinking of M5S-LN-FDI

If M5S doesn't like coalitions, they'd prefer to go with just one party over two, no?

[DavidB.]

Can all Americans calm down please? Fascists received less than 2% of the vote.

Is there any other fascist party besides CasaPound? Because they only received around 1% of the vote afaik.

Forza Nuova ("Italia Agli Italiani") are also fascists. I don't know what their combined total score will be, so I made sure to be on the safe side.

[Oryxslayer]

Italian Lower Chamber Elections: LA7 Projection

Party   Votes %
Five Star Movement   32.1%
Democratic Party   19.0%
League   17.5%
Forza Italia   14.1%
Brothers of Italy   4.1%
Free and Equal   3.5%
+Europe Bonino   2.7%
Us With Italy - UDC   1.1%
Popular Civic Lorenzin   0.5%
Together Italy Europe   0.6

That's enough for M5S-PD and might not be enough for M5S-Lega, which would be amazing.

Well, I was thinking of M5S-LN-FDI

M5S - LN is very unlikely, like <10% chance likely. MS5 in a coalition with FDI though is 0% chance.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the Forza head of MPs just confirmed that the pre-election deal they had with Lega still stands - whoever gets more MPs leads that group. Of course, the group may not exist in a few weeks, and the FPTP seats can still easily put Forza ahead of Lega since the Lega vote is so concentrated in the north.

[TheSaint250]

I consider the League and Silvio fascists.

Silvio i dunno.

Lega are fascists.

When there are actual Fascist candidates on the ballot, it isn't the best idea to throw that term around. However since Lega is Hard Right Socially/Hard Right economically, it would be correct to use that term - if the Casapound party didn't exist.

I'd still be wary about using the term since Lega, as opposed to CasaPound, hasn't shown hatred towards democracy, which is one of the major facets of the fascist ideology.

[Diouf]

VoteWatch has looked at which parties, M5S has voted the most with in the European Parliament. This is also an imperfect measure, but, like the chart of voter self-placement, it shows that M5S most closely resembles a Podemos/Syriza-style party. They are more critical of non-western immigration (although the exact degree is hard to gauge) and less ideologically (and more pure protestically) left-wing.

[Oryxslayer]

LA7 right now projecting the right is around 37%. For all the talk of M5S government, that 37% might be enough for government depending on FPTP.

[jaichind]

RAI TV lower house poll updates now:

Center-Right 36%
Five Star 32.5%
Center-Left 22.9%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Did you ever hear the tragedy of Matteo Renzi The Scrapper? I thought not. It’s not a story Merkel would tell you. It’s a centre-left legend. Matteo Renzi was a Florentine Lord of the Christian Democrats, so bombastic and so media-friendly he could use neoliberalism to influence the Communist factions to go away… He had such a knowledge of reform-driven results-oriented politics that he could even win the 2014 Euro elections. The dark side of neoliberalism is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural. He became so powerful… the only thing he was afraid of was losing his premiership, which eventually, of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his country a new electoral reform, then his country killed his political career in his sleep. Ironic. He could save others from stagnation, but not himself.

[jaichind]

VoteWatch has looked at which parties, M5S has voted the most with in the European Parliament. This is also an imperfect measure, but, like the chart of voter self-placement, it shows that M5S most closely resembles a Podemos/Syriza-style party. They are more critical of non-western immigration (although the exact degree is hard to gauge) and less ideologically (and more pure protestically) left-wing.

I guess the argument for M5S to tie-up with LN is not about ideological agreement but: "what would be the most disruptive to the "system""?

[Sestak]

Did you ever hear the tragedy of Matteo Renzi The Scrapper? I thought not. It’s not a story Merkel would tell you. It’s a centre-left legend. Matteo Renzi was a Florentine Lord of the Christian Democrats, so bombastic and so media-friendly he could use neoliberalism to influence the Communist factions to go away… He had such a knowledge of reform-driven results-oriented politics that he could even win the 2014 Euro elections. The dark side of neoliberalism is a pathway to many abilities some consider to be unnatural. He became so powerful… the only thing he was afraid of was losing his premiership, which eventually, of course, he did. Unfortunately, he taught his country a new electoral reform, then his country killed his political career in his sleep. Ironic. He could save others from death, but not himself.

*slow clap*

[H. Ross Peron]

Why the lag between Senate and lower chamber results? Also are the results regionally distributed enough to be representative?

[Oryxslayer]

Friuli, Liguria, and Molise are now entirely done with turnout. Change from 2013:

Friuli Venezia Giulia, down from 77.09 to 75.13
Liguria, down from 74.99 to 71.93
Molise, down from 77.76 to 71.59
Umbria, down from 79.10% to 77.32%
Val D'Aosta, down from 77.08%  to 72.40%

[Diouf]

I guess the argument for M5S to tie-up with LN is not about ideological agreement but: "what would be the most disruptive to the "system""?

Sure. And I will certainly not rule it out, particularly if this ends up as M5S' only way of getting power. However, I just see a big chance that such a deal with also be the most disruptive to M5S.

[jaichind]

Looks like is a small swing against M5S in the North relative to 2013.   This means M5S must be making large gains in the South.  This bodes well for M5S from the FPTP seats races point of view.

[Sestak]

I cannot believe that I'm rooting for the f**king Five Star Movement.

[jaichind]

Berlusconi's former Innovation Minister Renato Brunetta tells Rai that given the election law, Forza Italia will likely win more seats than the League, even with a smaller percentage of the vote. That would give both parties bragging rights to choose the next prime minister if Five Star can't form a government.

[jaichind]

No real results yet in Lazio.  I think that will determine which party in the Center-Right bloc (FI or LN) will emerge as the larger party.