Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

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I'm sorry, I have to post this as a perfect example of pots-meeting-kettles

(speaking of a Renzi speech)

..."There was populism, there was demagogy, but very little that was concrete," said Paola Taverna of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement...

?!?!

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Berlusconi says for Germans, "concentration camps never existed."

"A Berlusconi stalwart, former education minister Mariastella Gelmini, dismissed the flap as campaign propaganda."

Lol, ok.

The weirdest part is that it seems like there was absolutely 0 reason to even approach that topic in the first place.

I can see a big reason.

"OMG people stop talking about Renzi!! Pay attention to me!! See how wacky I am! GUYS!"

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I did kind of wish the Northern League would be dead after Bossi, but you can't win everything, I guess.

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Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

Interestingly, Berlusconi had actually re-endorsed the compromise a few days before M5S led their availability be known (of course Berlusconi's word is never worth much, but still at least in theory the plan was back on track). What's really surprising is the M5S' sudden openness to discussion and compromise with other parties, something that was thought impossible mere weeks ago. The results of the last elections may have something to do with it though.

I can imagine some more rabid 5-star activists are none too happy, no?

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I have understood it mainly people who are physically unable to vote for socialist party but do not want to vote Berlusconi again (at least in Sicily).

Err, surely these sorts vote NCD?

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They seem like fleshed out and angrier Pirates to me.

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Anything interesting happen?

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Anything interesting happen?

Labor reform passed in the Senate in a confidence vote, Renzi is relieved, Berlusconi and Grillo make their usual antics... So no, nothing worthwhile.

Nah I meant in the indirect elections. More Renzimania?

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Anything interesting happen?

Labor reform passed in the Senate in a confidence vote, Renzi is relieved, Berlusconi and Grillo make their usual antics... So no, nothing worthwhile.

Nah I meant in the indirect elections. More Renzimania?

I guess I called it with the wrong term. In Italian it's "elezioni di II livello". How is it translated?

No you were right, don't worry.

Renzi just launched his 2015 budget, slashing taxes by 18 billion euros, (15 billion of spending cuts and 3 billion of borrowing as well).

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Salvini is verging on overtaking FI in opinion polls.

Renzi must be the luckiest politician in the world - I mean he gets to face three joke parties and seemingly nobody else despite rapidly worsening fundamentals. If I were him, I'd call snap elections now just to get some kind of "mandate".

Oh and some Movement Five Star nobodies decided to disobey His Holiness Grilo, and appear on TV. Grillo had an e-sulk and promptly excommunicated them in a "popular vote".

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ugh I hate majority bonuses.

Anyway something rather unsettling is happening in Italian polling. An increasing number of polls are showing Berlusconi's outfit slip below or pegging the League of Evil. I mean don't get me wrong, it is funny to see the Don being shredded in the polls. But the League?? ugh

Does the new threshold mean the end of the South Tyrol party by the way?

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Still a run-off provides a bit of comfort - people won't be forced to choose a party they dislike for fear of their least favourite party being allowed the bonus.

(see: Greece)

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Well I doubt that the PD can get any more 'big tent' without becoming a marquee. At this stage the Democrats are the main centre-left, centre and centre-right party in Italy simultaneously. Italy's politics in the Second Republic were so strongly defined by your relations with Don Berlusconi, the modern PD basically encompasses everybody that disliked Silvio.

Likewise, Berlusconi and Grillo's outfits can't expand, because they are not ideological beasts; but purely wrapped up in their leaders machinations and indiosyncracies. All the 'sensible' centre-right in The Silvio Machine are now in the increasingly pathetic NCD or were swallowed up by PD, while the more ideologically coherent (non-Grillo drone) members of 5SM have long gone.

Perhaps the Northern League have room to expand, mainly due to the sensible strategy to at least partially disguise the fact they think half of Italians are inbred trash. But they are a populist right parties, and such groups have a natural ceiling that prevents them from ever being a 'big tent'.

Of the smaller parties, SEL basically have their own niche and I would be highly surprised if they were swallowed by the PD and the centrist groupings are perfectly happy to have imploded on their own and certainly don't need electoral reform to help killing them off. Brothers of Italy seems a bit more curious in what purpose it exactly serves, but they'll probably chug along.

The main consequence I feel is that it will really solidify Renzi's chance of being reelected. IN a non-runoff system Renzi will be in an impossible situation - forced to ally with one of three equally unpalatable individuals. With a straight runoff however, Renzi can quite easily cakewalk over any of them.

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In my mind, Italian politics may start to resemble the First Republic i.e. A large heterogenous and moderate party of government (the PD), a perpetual party of opposition that is 'too kooky' to be in power (5 stars) and a bunch of ephemeral oddballs and personL machines.

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Luckily, Tony I got a free Economist this morning which was discussing in detail the Renzi education plan (have a wild guess what the Economist made of it )

Basically the non wooly stuff is:

€4 billion in buildings
€500 euros per year for every teacher for books, software, museums etc.
Head teachers more powers to reward cronies good teachers (curtailed after complaints)
Allow parents to allocate parts of their salaries to their children's schools (dropped after complaints)
ICreased in public funding for Catholic schools

And the big one that has the unions antsy, taking an aim at part-time teachers. It seems two thirds of them will be promoted (100,000) but 50,000 will be made unemployed.

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Has the electoral reform changed the regional elections in any manner?

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The latter.

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So if the results are:

PD: 33
M55 : 19
Northern League: 15

Etc.

The results will then be tallied up as per usual, and then a subsequent run-off will take place for the Democrats and Grillists to decide who wins the extra fifty seats.

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Mario Mauto takes his tiny party (and two of his three senators) from the governing majority.

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I mean obviously I don't want it to happen, but a Grillo administration would be such a hilarious trainwreck.

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Very "Italian Politics" news: Northern League senator Roberto Calderoli (previously best known for comparing a black cabinet minister to a non-human primate and then earnestly worrying that he had been cursed with African witchcraft) makes headlines for bringing the wrecking of legislation into the 20th century. I read this from The Times at the doctor's this morning and nobody is else is reporting in English, but basically: he is using some kind of software to spam half a million randomly-generated amendments to the Senate reform bill. As by senate rules, the whole set has to be printed for each senator, in total causing eighty tons of paper to be printed; which the article noted would be enough to collapse the senate floor. Lol.

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Can he call a referendum to push his senate bills through?

Why are dissidents blocking the senate bill anyway? Pigheadedness? Seems like a strange hill for the left to die on, is what I'm saying.

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If Five Star Movement won the next election, could Grillo serve as PM with criminal charges?

Also what are the StarPeople's opinion on the senate changes?

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Most polls show the Star-Eyed People narrowly beating the right, and the left narrowly beating the Stars.

Does Grillo have a "prime ministerial candidate" to act as his puppet in the next election Tony?

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/13/us-italy-senate-idUSKCN0S722U20151013

Renzi scores a victory.