Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[DavidB.]

So what's Berlusconi really doing nowadays?

[DavidB.]

They were never going to be a force for the good. Maybe I'm a "conservative" in my opinions of the role that ideology should play within political parties, but I think this was always going to end badly. I prefer M5S to collapse asap rather than seeing them become even larger on the national level. The most tragic thing about this is that people's trust in Italy's democratic institutions and elected officials will be dealt another blow.

[DavidB.]

On the basis of a sample of one person, I can now project that Italian Jews are safe "yes" and safe D.

[DavidB.]

On the basis of a sample of one person, I can now project that Italian Jews are safe "yes" and safe D.

Wait, you're Italian?

No (though I'd obviously also be safe D, the only sane choice, and therefore safe yes), but a guy I hung out with on Yom Kippur was Couldn't resist the urge to discuss politics with him...

[DavidB.]

So December 4: Hofer in, Renzi out. A fitting end of 2016.

[DavidB.]

The suggestion that a plurality of the popular vote should be sufficient to totally command the government is the same undemocratic lunacy that gave us Trump and it's terrific to see Italian voters rejecting it.

Uh, what?

[DavidB.]

Of the 20 regions, it seems only Trentino-Alto Adige, Emilia-Romagna and Tuscany will be voting "yes".

Rome voting against by somewhat more than the national margin, Torino and Milano by 55-45 and Napoli by more than 70-30. Firenze voting "yes" by 57-43.

[DavidB.]

Very interesting development. Quite a significant symbolic shift, at least. The M5S have always been at odds with the UKIP members in that the Italians have actually tried to make real parliamentary work. Also they rarely vote the same, so it has been more of a marriage of convenience to get funds etc. Curious whether ALDE will accept them, but it would make them the third-largest group again, which Verhofstadt would love.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-m5s-ukip-idUSKBN14S0HN

In addition to that, EFD would lose its status as a parliamentary group as far as I know.

[DavidB.]

In addition to that, EFD would lose its status as a parliamentary group as far as I know.

The limit is 25 MEPs from 7 countries. Without M5S, they will have 27 MEPs from seven countries, so they will just maintain its status if no others leave. But it is hanging on by a thread, four of the countries are only represented by one MEP. And the Sweden Democrats and Order and Justice (Lithuania) might begin to prepare for the next term, where the EFDD group will certainly not exist. It is perhaps most likely that they will go towards ECR, who looks certain to exist in the next term as well, although it will be severely weakened without the Tories. The ENF is a more uncertain possibility, and I would think that at least the Sweden Democrats would like to look a bit more, not less, mainstream.

Oh, you're right, thought the 25 MEPs had to come from 8 countries. As for SD, ENF would obviously fit their profile much better than EFD, let alone any other group. They don't want to be associated with FN/FPÖ because it hurts them nationally in the process of "mainstreaming", but ECR (which will be done anyway if the UK leave and the Tories are gone) is really not going to happen for SD. I could see them join ENF anyway.

[DavidB.]

Renzi has already said that PD favours a return to Mattarellum (75% of seats assigned according to single-member costituencies, 25% according to the national vote share). Same for Lega Nord.

Wouldn't this be really bad for the Lega?

[DavidB.]

Nice! I love Flawless Beautiful Matteo.

[DavidB.]

^ Great summary, thanks!

Is there any VoteMatch/VoteCompass/you name it test?

[DavidB.]

Thank you! Surprisingly comprehensible to me: for most of them I didn't need Google Translate.

[DavidB.]

This might be a retarded question, but I heard some talk about a FI-PD grand coalition, regardless of the alliances. However, this is very implausible, as the numbers just don't seem to add up even when factoring in FPTP, right?

[DavidB.]

M5S and Lega overperformance.

[DavidB.]

Don't know how to word the way I feel about this. Cautiously optimistic but expecting to be disappointed?

[DavidB.]

Why doesn't Salvini shave? I remember when fascists used to have some form of style for their facial hair, not gross neckbeards.

I think he's hot

[DavidB.]

Can all Americans calm down please? Fascists received less than 2% of the vote.

[DavidB.]

I consider the League and Silvio fascists.

In that case the word means nothing anymore. I guess this is now a popular pastime in America, but I prefer to stick to the definitions that are actually used in political science. Lega and Fratelli d'Italia are radical right-wing parties, but no fascists. CasaPound and Forza Nuova can be considered to be fascists.

[DavidB.]

Can all Americans calm down please? Fascists received less than 2% of the vote.

Is there any other fascist party besides CasaPound? Because they only received around 1% of the vote afaik.

Forza Nuova ("Italia Agli Italiani") are also fascists. I don't know what their combined total score will be, so I made sure to be on the safe side.

[DavidB.]

Looks like is a small swing against M5S in the North relative to 2013.   This means M5S must be making large gains in the South.  This bodes well for M5S from the FPTP seats races point of view.

Which is really bad for Forza in terms of FPTP seats.

[DavidB.]

Can someone who knows something about Italian politics explain what is going on?

I don't know much about Italian politics, but "something", sure:

- Center-left bloc led by governing PD is losing a lot.
- Center-right bloc led by Berlusconi's Forza Italia becomes largest bloc but fails to win parliamentary majority.
- Five-Star Movement (M5S), a protest party garnering votes from all over the political spectrum without any clear set of plans, will become the largest party and is now kingmaker. The coalition preference of M5S is unclear.
- Northern-based Lega, nowadays toning down its separatism and focusing on immigration issues, might become larger than Forza Italia in the center-right bloc, which would mean that their no. 1 candidate, Matteo Salvini, would become Prime Minister in case they manage to form a government. However, this scenario still seems really unlikely, as the center-right haven't won a majority and Forza might still win more seats than the Lega even if the Lega are bigger in the list PV.
- A time of chaos is likely to follow.

[DavidB.]

Keeps getting better.

[DavidB.]

Lega did their share and more, but Forza simply bombed in the South. Rightly so, because Berlusconi is a con artist, but M5S aren't much better.

[DavidB.]

M5S + Lega, the least likely of these groupings

Completely unclear why this would be the case.