Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Lord Halifax]

(coalition 20% within 3%)

what does that mean within this context?

[Lord Halifax]

So, just as everyone in the PD is trying to prepare for the leadership election, here comes a pretty serious scandal to make the climate even more poisonous. Prosecutors are investigating on pressure made to the head of the public agency in charge of public contracts is favor of this or that entrepreneur. The story involves Renzi's father and a government minister very close to him (but not Renzi himself).

To make matters worse, one of the other two candidates to the PD leadership is involved as a prosecution witness, and the other is currently the Minister of Justice. It would be hilarious if the consequences couldn't be so disastrous for everyone involved.

And tonight's poll from La7 showed, for the first time ever, the "populist sovranist" alliance of M5S + Lega Nord + Fratelli d'Italia with an absolute majority in the House.

What does that mean?

[Lord Halifax]

pisapia and emiliano are very ridiculous, useful idiots of renzi...

How so?

[Lord Halifax]

Italian social geography is a little bit different to what's normal further north, so things are not quite what they might seem at first.

In what way?

[Lord Halifax]

  If the new government does a halfway decent job on the immigration front (say actually doing a significant level of deportations, and keeping the  trend of less migration from the med route on a downward slope) I would think that would shore up support on the right, even if some of the financial proposals turn kind of trainwreckish.

Immigration is a tricky issue though. It's easier to make noises than implement policy... or rather... implement policy that you know will have the desired effect. After a certain point the risk is of running an electoral scam, which can work for quite a while but o/c when the electorate figures out they've been had... what then?

That depends on what methods you are prepared to use, and Italy is a country that actually has the resources that would allow them to implement an efficient deportation program, but its unclear if M5S has the stomach for it.

[Lord Halifax]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

If this is true, and it looks like it is, this is a complete failure of democracy.

Why so? These are competencies of president guaranteed by Italian law.

Something being legal and constitutional doesn't make it democratic. The president is elected by parliament for seven years, and can then block the appointment of a new and more radical government. So an old pro-establishment parliament can indirectly prevent the voters from getting a new and more radical government later on. Not very democratic. If a president has that kind of powers he should be directly elected by the people.

[Lord Halifax]

So let's say there are new elections and 5 Star and Legs increase their majority. How does that change anything if the President won't accept their cabinet? It sounds like unless Italians suddenly elect an establishment government, there will be another impasse.

If this is true, and it looks like it is, this is a complete failure of democracy.

Why so? These are competencies of president guaranteed by Italian law.

Something being legal and constitutional doesn't make it democratic. The president is elected by parliament for seven years, and can then block the appointment of a new and more radical government. So an old pro-establishment parliament can indirectly prevent the voters from getting a new and more radical government later on. Not very democratic. If a president has that kind of powers he should be directly elected by the people.

They decided to participate in elections, they decided to participate in that whole political system which have its own set of institutions and legal acts setting rules. That's how its work. I think that Mattarella decision was stupid and of course motivated by purely political factors and not that thing about investors etc. but still he got elected as a president fairly by all those old guys in Italian parliament and just used powers which I guess all of those people accepted president should have before. I am sure that Lega-elected president or M5S-elected president would do the same if some sort of turbo-pro-refugees party would won elections. This is not how probably it should look like but calling it a failure is definitely too much.

How it "works" has nothing to do with whether it's democratic or not.