Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[TheSaint250]

Just a question for anyone: is Legal Nord still pro-secession or is it just a populist party now?

[TheSaint250]

Pledging to resign if the referendum were defeated seems like rather odd behavior if Renzi always intended to return to politics immediately. Reminds me of Farage's "resignation" after UK 2015.

I think the difference there was that UKIP rejected his resignation because they still kinda needed him.

[TheSaint250]

I'm hoping M5S can pull it off.

[TheSaint250]

Latest IXE poll

PD    23.8%
M5S  27.9%
FI     15.5%
LN    13.5%
FYI     4.8%

Which puts FI-LN-FdI at 33.8%

PD has dropped 3% since late October.

What is the percentage needed again? 40%?

Also, is there any chance that M5S forms some kind of anti-establishment government coalition with, say Lega Nord and other parties?

[TheSaint250]

Ok thanks everyone

[TheSaint250]

So with LeU, do voters just vote for LeU or would they vote for the various parties? The way Wikipedia presents it, it's not a coalition like the others, but I am not sure.

[TheSaint250]

Thanks

[TheSaint250]

5Stars consider post-election pact with far right

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Question for anyone who knows: Does Di Maio lean left, or is he just trying to find a somewhat Eurosceptic group that isn't Legal Nord?

[TheSaint250]

This is what I'm predicting:

M5S: 27.0%
Democratic Party: 23.5%
Forza Italia: 16.0%
Lega: 14.0%
Free and Equal: 5.0%
Brothers of Italy: 4.5%
More Europe: 2.5%
Other: 7.5%

[TheSaint250]

What times does the polls close and are there links to live results ?

They close at 11 p.m. local time (5 p.m. EST). Not sure about live results.

[TheSaint250]

Have now seen the 7PM exit polls thanks to a well-placed source...green-yellow wave.
I've never hoped this much that an exit poll was complete garbage.

Like, greater than 40% wave?

[TheSaint250]

There are regional elections today in Lombardy and Lazio, as well.

Lombardy (Exit poll [last election's result]):

Center-right: 38-42% [43.1%]
Center-left: 31-35% [37.3%]
M5S: 17-21% [14.3%]
LeU: 2-4% [did not exist]

Lazio:

Center-left: 30-34% [40.7%]
Center-right: 26-30% [29.3%]
M5S: 25-29% [16.6%]

The center-left is certainly losing support, especially in Lazio, as is the center-right.  M5S is making impressive gains.

[TheSaint250]

For anyone who knows: do PaP and/or CasaPound have a chance of making it into Parliament?

[TheSaint250]

I consider the League and Silvio fascists.

Silvio i dunno.

Lega are fascists.

When there are actual Fascist candidates on the ballot, it isn't the best idea to throw that term around. However since Lega is Hard Right Socially/Hard Right economically, it would be correct to use that term - if the Casapound party didn't exist.

I'd still be wary about using the term since Lega, as opposed to CasaPound, hasn't shown hatred towards democracy, which is one of the major facets of the fascist ideology.

[TheSaint250]

has called for ethnic cleansing

When?!

Okay, he's called for cleansing.

But we all know what he's talking about.

I believe he was talking about illegal migrants, not a specific race.

[TheSaint250]

What's happening in Calabria?

[TheSaint250]

Where can I find a live results page with maps?

[TheSaint250]

Where can I find a live results page with maps?

http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

Thanks!

[TheSaint250]

The Guardian is reporting that PD is ending up with 18.9%. If so, wow.

[TheSaint250]

Is there a portion of M5S that would never tolerate going into a coalition with Lega?

From what I can guess, it's more likely than not that M5S avoids Lega. The party does not go to the right as much as Lega and (to more directly answer your question) does have a notable left-wing branch. In addition, besides looking to cut back on migrant numbers, the party seems to be mainly made up of centrist and center-left positions.

It does look like many PD voters and others leaning to the left voted for M5S, and I doubt they would be happy if the party sided with Lega.

(If someone could enlighten me on M5S's ideological stance, please do.)

[TheSaint250]

The crumbling of the center-left is certainly continuing this year. Looking at the situation from 10 years ago compared to today is even worse.

[TheSaint250]

Well, this is certainly one for the history books. The failure of the two "main" parties, the rise of anti-establishment parties, and the ensuing chaos will surely help define politics going forward, especially within in the EU.

[TheSaint250]

Well, this is certainly one for the history books. The failure of the two "main" parties, the rise of anti-establishment parties, and the ensuing chaos will surely help define politics going forward, especially within in the EU.

Every single Italian election since the end of the First Republic has been very dramatic... and has in no way foreshadowed the one that followed.

I'm referring to the EU as a whole. If we get a League-led government, it'll be the first ENF government, and the same goes for a M5S-led government and EFDD (yes, I know the groups were founded only 4 years ago). As far as I know, either one would certainly shake up discussions. I'll be interested to see what happens going forward.

[TheSaint250]

Does anyone have seat numbers?

[TheSaint250]

Does anyone have seat numbers?

http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

for the senate you need look region by region
for that miss if you look in the seats you can see that they can be called also if the count is not completed

Thank you!

Also, what are the "candidati uninominali"?