Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

IXE poll has seat projections

                           Lower House       Senate
Berlusconi bloc         270                   135
M5S                        165                     85
Center-Left              162                     81
Radical Left                25                      8

LN wants Berlusconi  to rule out a post-election alliance with the Center-Left bloc which if true means no majority for any bloc or alliances of blocs.

Could Berlusconi form a coalition with the center left and drop LN? It would cede votes to LN next time around, but perhaps he'd do that to have a majority (if that would even be enough for one).

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Does Italy do proportional representation, constituency seats, a combination, or something else entirely? It seems like it would be proportional or similar based on the number of small parties with a shot at representation.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I consider the League and Silvio fascists.

Silvio i dunno.

Lega are fascists.

When there are actual Fascist candidates on the ballot, it isn't the best idea to throw that term around. However since Lega is Hard Right Socially/Hard Right economically, it would be correct to use that term - if the Casapound party didn't exist.

I'd still be wary about using the term since Lega, as opposed to CasaPound, hasn't shown hatred towards democracy, which is one of the major facets of the fascist ideology.

Lega is obviously not fascist. These days, fascism is a term used by many on the left to refer to nationalism and by idiots across the political spectrum to mean "any authoritarian ideology I dislike"

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Can someone who knows something about Italian politics explain what is going on?

A lot.

M5S is going to be the largest single party. They're populists with little to no coherent ideology but tend towards left wing economic and right wing immigration proposals. They're unlikely to be able to make a coalition with any other parties and function best outside of government anyway.

The center-right coalition made small gains, but more importantly the distribution of votes within it shifted away from neoliberal FI to nationalist conservative parties LN and FdI.

The center-left coalition, which won the last election and presided over a chaotic period of mass migration and economic stagnation, lost a lot of votes.

The far left splinter group from the center left met the threshold for seats, but is not a major player and may not even get 5%.

Oh, and Casapound Italia, the (actual self described) fascist party the media loves freaking out over, will not be making the cutoff for seats, winning only 1% of the vote.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Berlusconi and his government was responsible for a lot of the damage, PA Deplorable.

Did I say they weren't? That's like saying during the 2012 election "You're talking about Obama's record? Well Bush made mistakes too!"  True, but a total deflection and irrelevant to my point about why PD is in decline.

I don't like Berlusconi. He's the epitome of Italian political corruption. If I was Italian, I'd probably vote FdI.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Lega is ahead of Forza in Lazio (the region with Rome in it). I thought they'd do well, but that level of success south of Tuscany is a surprise.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Lega is ahead of Forza in Lazio (the region with Rome in it). I thought they'd do well, but that level of success south of Tuscany is a surprise.

Eh, we got only 2% in there, and if you were following the turnout count, then you would understand when I say that it will be a while till we start seeing Rome+Suburbs rather than rural Lazio. Hell, none of Rome is actually in there, so it is very early. Expect Forza to overtake Lega there. But, this is just one of many signs that Lega is having an excellent night, and is getting historically significant results in the center+south.

True. Any possibility that M5S's scandals running Rome will hurt it there?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Where can I find a live results page with maps?

http://elezioni.interno.gov.it/camera/scrutini/20180304/scrutiniCI

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Lega did their share and more, but Forza simply bombed in the South. Rightly so, because Berlusconi is a con artist, but M5S aren't much better.

Agreed.

If, as many here seem to hope, we end up with an M5S-PD government, I think M5S's inevitable inability to come through on its promises and the difficulty faced by any populist anti-establishment party in maintaining the support of the dissected after entering government, coupled with Salvini having a few more years to build up Lega in the South, could lead to LN becoming an even more powerful force next time. The far left would also likely gain.

FI probably rebrands after this election and Berlussconi is finally forced out of its top spot.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

As of my current information, 9/20 Italian citizens in my family voted. I’m pretty surprised as I thought that at most 5/20 would vote. 7 voted for the Center-Right, one for the Democrats, and one for M5S. I’d guess that maybe one or two more voted that I don’t know of yet. In the last election, four voted and most went for Forza Italia.

Interesting. What region are they in and did the 7 vote FI, LN, or FdI?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Things seem pretty bad for PD in FPTP seats.  In Tuscany where it is the strongest, out of the 7 Senate seats, it is only ahead in 2 of them.  And one of seats that it is ahead is Renzi's seat.

In Emilia-Romagna where PD is also very strong it seems to be Center-Right 6 PD 2 in terms of Senate FPTP leads.

Currently, PD leads in 3 Tuscany districts, 2 Emilia Romagna districts, and one each in Lazio, Lombardy, and Piedmont. The third Tuscany and the one Piedmont are within 250 votes

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I wish the map was color coded 😭

I've been steadily editing a map of FPTP Senate seats as results come in, this is what I have as of right now.



Blue is center-right coalition
Yellow is M5S
Red is center-left coalition
Gray is other (The two seats in Tyrol are SVP-PATT)

Could you post it? I've looked all over for a live results map colored by party, but I guess there aren't any.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Among seniors, PD was the largest party, narrowly followed by M5S, then Forza, then Lega.
For every other age group, it was M5S > Lega > PD > Forza

The youth of Europe (and in Italy's case, even the middle aged) increasingly want nothing to do with neoliberalism. I expect PD to split between Renzi's supporters and a more traditional socialist left wing.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Looks like Meloni's personal popularity played a role in Rome.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Map of gains and losses by coalition from 2013 to 2018. What's striking is how M5S had minimal gains and even some losses in the North, yet still were the big winners due to their domination of the South.