Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Former President tack50]

Italy has the latest poll closing anywhere in the world I think

Not quite sure why it has to be so late when France/Spain are 8pm, Germany 6pm (and Austria 5pm!)

Does anyone have links for Italian TV stations which won't be geoblocked? (ideally Italian TV not an English-language channel)

Thanks!

DC

Yeah, a poll closing time of 23:00 is absurd. Even 9pm or 10pm is too late.

The ideal opening times IMO are 8am to 5-6pm, so that the counting is done by 8-9pm and everyone can go to bed.

It's extremely idiotic to keep the polls open that long so that people have to count votes the whole night ...

To be fair it also depends on how fast you count votes. UK elections literally take the entire night and part of the next day. Meanwhile here by midnight you basically already have 99% of the vote in.

IMO the best hours are probably something like 8am-8pm.

[Former President tack50]

I wonder, would PD actually reach a deal with Lega and Forza Italia? That way you could get a PD-LN-FI government and avoid M5S if they truly refuse to take part in any coalition.

Or is PD too far from LN?

[Former President tack50]

Looks like it will be M5S choice of PD or LN to form the majority.

Since M5S hates coalitions I guess they could just do a minority government? The numbers are there, especially if they have the choice between PD and LN.

[Former President tack50]

I wonder, how likely is a minority government? Are they common (or at least thinkable) in Italy?

Because a minority government from M5S wouldn't be that hard to form. They could pass budgets, economic reforms, etc with support from PD and inmigration and other social stuff with Lega.

[Former President tack50]

Di Maio a few moments ago: "Talks with League are over; still deep differences with Democrats. Any discussion with Lega ends here. Salvini has condemned himself to irrelevance. Government with the CentreRight is no longer viable. I ask the PD to come to the table, not immediately to sign the contract but to check if there are the conditions to put it on its feet. If talks with PD fail, only alternative is a new election.

C'mon PD, take the deal

Agreed, an M5S-PD-(LeU) deal would probably be really good and it wouldn't do much harm to PD. Definitely less than some sort of grand coalition with the right.

If they fear the far left coming for them, try to get LeU to join as well. If they fear that they'll be tied to all the government's mistakes, make it a minority government with support for the budget and stuff.

Why wouldn't PD go for that? What would they have to concede to M5S? Harsher inmigration laws? Good, that's a losing cause for the left. A slightly less pro EU stance? Still a lot better than what Lega would have offered.

At the very least if they don't want to join a government they should at least push for an M5S minority government.

[Former President tack50]

Is there a chance that the right gets an absolute majority and instead of M5S-Lega, Italy gets Lega-Forza Italia-FdI? Honestly, I'd say that would be a marginally better government, at least Berlusconi will put the brakes on the radical proposals (I still can't believe Berlusconi is Italy's best hope)

To be clear: Mattarella said no to Savona but would have accepted one of Lega's main politicians as Finance Minister.
The point is that Lega and M5S wanted to break up from the euro while not having said it publicly one single time.

If a country aspired to create an export-oriented economy with large trade surpluses it would, in general, face the severe headwind of rising currencies that made its exports more expensive abroad while lowering the costs of imported goods. That assumes currencies float. If they didn't, the headwind would be less severe.

The Euro is a glorified fixed-exchange regime amongst the European states.

In the real world, that aspiring state is Germany,  and that export policy is succeeding spectacularly as the folks in Greece can attest.

Devaluation is the answer, and, leaving the Euro is the only path to devaluation. Otherwise, teaching German, English, and Dutch in primary school is the best hope Italian children have for a better life.

Ah yes, because that worked flawlessly for Zimbabwe and Venezuela