Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[rob in cal]

   Would five star win against either the left or the right if it reached the runoff?

[rob in cal]

   With the weakening of the power of the Senate envisioned by the changes, would this go some way toward making Italy what I call a de facto unicameral country?  Interesting that in the US discussions about abolition of the US senate, or significant limitations on its powers, aren't ever in the mainstream of public discourse.

[rob in cal]

    I'm intrigued by how in the runoff the left does so well against 5 Star.  Wouldn't the vast majority of voters on the right support 5 Star over the left.  I guess not if the center-left is about even with 5 Star in the runoff.

[rob in cal]

  So, whats the likely political fallout if the "no" side prevails?

[rob in cal]

   Wow, that big of a margin would be a huge slap in the face for Renzi, with his resignation that much more likely.
    I wonder what the regional breakdown will be.  Possible narrow yes victory in Tuscany, Emilia Romagna, losses elsewhere, but where would the biggest no victory be?

[rob in cal]

  According to La Stampa, turnout at 7PM was 67% in Florence, 65% in Bologna, 60.9% Milan, 55.9% Rome57% Turin,52% Bari, 47% Palermo and 42.9% Naples.

[rob in cal]

   Another irony about the 5 star movement is that now with the runoff system for the lower house is that if it can reach the runoff it looks to be in the best position to defeat either the left or the right.

[rob in cal]

    Lost in all the excitement of Sunday's double vote (Austria and Italy), is the fact that we have yet another big polling failure.  Polls showed nowhere near a 20 point margin of victory for no, but maybe something happened in the last week when there were no more polls.

[rob in cal]

  Does anything stand out as surprising with this map?

[rob in cal]

    Palandio, that's intriguing about the patterns of support by class, perhaps another example of the switch in political preferences of social classes, similar to what we also saw in Austria.

[rob in cal]

  Any news yet on the court decision?

[rob in cal]

  I hate those majority premium seats. Btw,  how would things shake out if it happens that 5Star, the PD and the right wing parties all get about a third of a seats.  What kind of a coalition would likely emerge from that?

[rob in cal]

  Are there indications that the working class demographics are starting to shift away from left wing parties, similar to what we see in other countries like Austria?

[rob in cal]

  I've been reading about the big drop-off in African migration from Libya to Italy in the last two months, with Italy interior minister Marco Minniti getting involved in organizing Libyan groups to discourage this migration.  If this proves effective and long-lasting could this bolster the Italian Left in the upcoming elections?

[rob in cal]

  France has had PR for National Assembly elections off and on (last time in the 1986 elections), going back to runoff by districts as it is now, but the fabulous beautiful Macron supports bringing PR back.  Not holding my breath on that one though.

[rob in cal]

  Are there a lot of first past the post seats that are fairly marginal that have a lot of the splinter party candidates running as well as those from the big three? 

[rob in cal]

   It would be awesome if some of the Italian politics experts could do a FPTP seat analysis, for both the lower chamber and senate.

[rob in cal]

  I thought the main reason for the emergence of the Red Belt was that much of that area had been part of the Papal States, before unification, so there was a built-in anti-clericalism that shows itself today in support of left leaning parties.

[rob in cal]

  Free flights to Italy.  That vision is being partially put into practice by the emergence of Wow airlines and Norwegian air, which offer some pretty cheap flights from the US to Europe (but not that many to Italy).  Maybe take a real cheap flight to London on Wow, and then a Ryanair flight from Stansted airport to Italy.

[rob in cal]

   Pretty amazing that two Robert/o Fico politicians are active in politics at the same time, and both feature prominently in the news one week after another, one resigning and one winning election as speaker. What are the odds of that.

[rob in cal]

  I like the idea of more national fiscal autonomy for the member states of the EU, though whether these economic choices are wise is another matter. It will be interesting to see if these lead to a big jump in the deficit, and whether at some point a euro-referendum will reenter the discussion.

[rob in cal]

  If the new government does a halfway decent job on the immigration front (say actually doing a significant level of deportations, and keeping the  trend of less migration from the med route on a downward slope) I would think that would shore up support on the right, even if some of the financial proposals turn kind of trainwreckish.

[rob in cal]

  This parallel currency idea is really revolutionary. If it somehow gets a foothold and actually works, it would be an example for other countries as well.
  It doesn't seem there is too much opposition from 5star supporters or politicians to this alliance with a so called far-right party. One would think that maybe those who used to be supporters of left leaning parties might not like it, but perhaps the signature issues of the League, such as an immigration reduction policy resonate with a big chunk of the electorate of most parties.

[rob in cal]

  Maybe an actual referendum on leaving the Euro would be a smoother, cleaner approach to this issue.  After all, there must be many voters who support M5 the League, or any party for that matter, who support that party for a variety of reasons, having little or nothing to do with the euro, regardless of whether the next election is fought primarily over that issue.

[rob in cal]

  One thing about the new government is that most of its top goals are actually pretty achievable, such as lowering the pension age, a crackdown on illegal immigration (outgoing interior minister Minniti has been working on slowing the departure rate from the Libyan route of migrants), the new welfare reform idea etc.  Of course the budget deficit side of things will probably get really ugly, especially if the flatter tax/tax cuts go through.  Also, apparently Savona wasn't acceptable as finance minister due to his anti euro feelings, but is ok as Europe minister?