Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

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It's official: PdL is gonna split.

Oh my God. Details?

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Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

2006 and 2013 were quite close...

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Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Coalition including former Premier Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and new center right group formed by deputy premier Alfano at 37% vs 34.6% last week, according to poll by SWG of voting intentions.

Center-left including Premier Letta’s PD party at 32.9% vs 33.3% last week: SWG
Grillo’s Five-Star Movement at 19.8% vs 20.8%: SWG
Undecideds and abstentions 40% vs 41.5% last week: SWG

NOTE: Poll conducted Nov. 19-20 on 1,000 interviews

Why three significant figures?

For some reason, Italian pollsters seem to believe decimals are valuable information.

2006 and 2013 were quite close...

Yes, but, as both these elections showed, the pollsters' margin of error goes well beyond the single percentage point.

True. If an election is close enough that decimals would be valuable information in polling then it's more than close enough for the polls to get the result wrong anyway.

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Oh, this electoral law decision should be fun.    Please give us a system that people can at least partly understand!

As for the new symbol, yeah, it leaves a lot to be desired but at least it isn't another party that just threw the tricolor in there.

Are you supporting NCD, Phil?

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I wasn't under the impression that Renzi was at all a left-winger within the context of PD.

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The new Renzi-appointed PD executive board is majority female

Good.

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In principle neutral, but in the context of Italian political culture probably also good.

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What kind of electoral reform is being considered?

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What kind of electoral reform is being considered?

Renzi made 3 proposals:
- The "mayor of Italy" system (yes that's how it's being called), which, if I understand correctly, basically means a direct election of the PM in a two-round system and a majority bonus to the winner's party.
- A Spanish system, with PR in very small constituencies so as to favor larger parties.
- A return to the 1993-2005 electoral law, the so-called "mattarellum", with some tweaks once again to ensure a stable majority.

I think Alfano expressed a preference for the former. It's also to see what Berlusconi will do, since Renzi indicated he's available for a broader agreement.

Oh my God, that first one is awful.

But that's just my own distaste for directly-elected PMs and majority bonuses talking. Which if any do you support?

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They tried that in Israel.

I know.

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I know.

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What will Berlusconi be meeting Renzi about and why is the government hanging by a wire? I thought the Berlusconi loyalists had gone into opposition months ago anyway.

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What I've been seeing is that it's not clear that the Senate will even be elected any more, so I imagine it is indeed being proposed that it be made something more like a normal revising chamber.

I still don't understand why Berlusconi is involved in this, or still being taken seriously in general.

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That sounds like a horrible, convoluted mess all around.

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Have the other parties in the coalition indicated whether they'd vote for confidence in Renzi?

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Yeah, this just comes across as a self-aggrandizing power grab.

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This system is unbelievably awful. Just retaining the status quo for the Camera and reducing the power of the Senate would be preferable.

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This system is unbelievably awful. Just retaining the status quo for the Camera and reducing the power of the Senate would be preferable.

You do realize that if elections were held today under the current system, the parliament that would emerge would make Berlusconi indispensable for coalition building (and by Berlusconi, I mean that even PD + Alfano wouldn't work anymore)?

I'm tempted to argue that that's an inherent problem with Berlusconi's continued existence as a political figure, not with the electoral system, but instead I'd just ask how you figure, because at least in the case of the Camera--by 'reducing the power of the Senate' I do mean making it so that it's no longer necessary for confidence and supply, among other things--I actually didn't realize that, no.

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PD candidates for EU elections

www.partitodemocratico.it/doc/267035/i-candidati-alle-elezioni-europee-2014.htm

All the list leaders are women. That's a pretty refreshing sign.

And 4/5 are exceptionally good-looking

That's a pretty irrelevant sign.

Antonio, what if anything do you know about these people as individuals?

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PD candidates for EU elections

www.partitodemocratico.it/doc/267035/i-candidati-alle-elezioni-europee-2014.htm

All the list leaders are women. That's a pretty refreshing sign.

And 4/5 are exceptionally good-looking

That's a pretty irrelevant sign.

You live in a different world than most of us if you believe looks don't play a role in politics.

I ought to have said that it should be an irrelevant sign.

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Out of curiosity, what do we think would happen if Renzi were to call an election at some point within the next, say, six months?

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With Renzi government so solid, should be time for Napolitano get out of Quirinale? Or he'll remain, as a Presidential Election would be a mess?

From what I've understood, he plans to stay until the electoral and constitutional reforms will be passed, ensuring a more stable political situation.

Out of curiosity, what do we think would happen if Renzi were to call an election at some point within the next, say, six months?

I'm not sure PD would reach 40% in a general election, where turnout is generally higher, but it would still do pretty well, above 35%. Still, that wouldn't be enough for a majority, as long as the electoral system isn't reformed. So the situation would be more or less what it is now, except NCD would be marginalized while FI gains ground.

Both of these answers beg the question of if there's any timetable for getting the reforms (which I still maintain are godawful, but they're better than nothing) passed yet.

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I don't know if this is a popular opinion within Italy or not, but from where I'm standing I really think Napolitano deserves the best in the world for all he's done to keep the country functioning. I hope he can get some rest and something at least resembling a retirement soon. He's ancient as it is.

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Today Renzi met with M5S leaders, who finally agreed to have a discussion/negotiation on electoral reform (for which they unveiled their own proposal). The meeting was broadcast on live stream. So, in short, there's still a long way to go, but both sides showed some good will and further meetings should follow. If they're serious about this, it's actually a great occasion to significantly improve the law.

This is because most of the right has flaked out of their commitment to this, isn't it?

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Bills can be passed article by article in Italian parliamentary procedure? Or was the reform package introduced as multiple separate pieces of legislation?

I think that votes on specific articles (which serve to summarily dismiss flocks of amendments and do not preclude the need for a final vote on the entire bill) are a fairly common procedure in Italian and French legislative processes. Doesn't that exist in the US?

Yes, which is why I deleted the post I made asking the question. I realized I'd misread the article.

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Dare I ask how the political reform is going?

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Ugh. Let me guess, Article 18 of the Statute of Workers is on the chopping block. Am I close?

Is there any hope at all that the labor market reform gets defeated or significantly altered but the political reform goes through anyway?