Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Zuza]

And what about MDP? Did they go along with PD in this election ?

In Wikipedia they are listed as a part of the centre-left coalition.

I don't know about Campo Progressista, did they run in this elections at all?

[Zuza]

What is the percentage needed again? 40%?

What do you mean? There was a 40 % threshold for majority bonus in the previous electoral law ("Italicum"), but the current law, adopted in 2017, doesn't have majority bonus.

[Zuza]

Does Italy do proportional representation, constituency seats, a combination, or something else entirely? It seems like it would be proportional or similar based on the number of small parties with a shot at representation.

A combination of both, which is far more complicated and arcane than it really needs to be. It's a new electoral system for this election, explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_electoral_law_of_2017

They used a completely proportional system from WWII to 1994, but that ended badly. A different completely PR system was used from 2006 until last election, and also ended badly, hence the two -
 count 'em, two - attempts at reform by the current government.

If I understand right, it isn't that complicated, just an ordinary parallel voting system, similar to Mattarellum, but with much less FPTP and much more proportional seats.

[Zuza]

Well, my prediction:
Centre-right 37.0% (FI  17.5% , L 12.8%, FdI 4.5%, NcI 2.2%)
M5S 28.2%
Centre-left 26.7% (PD 20.4%,  +E 4.1%, CP 1.2%, I 1.0%)
LeU 4.4%
CPI 1.7%
PaP 1.0%
Others 1.0%

Based on this:

Anyhow, a journalist friend of mine gave me the average of the unpublished polls from the last 14 days.
Not much has changed with respect to before. M5S slightly up, LeU slightly down, +Europa ending very strongly.

[Zuza]

has called for ethnic cleansing

When?!

[Zuza]

Why doesn't Salvini shave? I remember when fascists used to have some form of style for their facial hair, not gross neckbeards.

BTW I've just noticed CasaPound leader's beard:

[Zuza]

My best guess, without knowing very much, what will take place would be:

1) Center-Right Lega-FN minority government with Salvini as PM where PD abstains (50%)
2) M5S-PD government (25%)
3) M5S-Lega government (15%)
4) New elections (5%)
5) Some sort of uber grand coalition behind a technicart PM (5%)

Why the chance of a new elections is so low?