Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide

[Zanas]

Is the 5 Stelle candidate De Gasperi related to Alcide De Gasperi ? If that's the case, poor Alcide must be turning over in his grave...

[Zanas]

For real ? How lame is that...

[Zanas]

Update :
Renzi 1,638,934 (67.8%)
Cuperlo 434,311 (18%)
Civati 344,526 (14.3%)

That's with 85% of stations scrutinized.

Final turnout estimated around 2.5 million.

[Zanas]

They tried that in Israel. It did not work.

Eh; in Israel, winning the PM election didn't give you a 'majority bonus'; it just meant you became PM.  I don't think a system where whoever comes in first place is actually guaranteed a legislative majority has been tried.

It has : it's called nowadays' France.

[Zanas]

I hadn't thought about that, but maybe Renzi is just betting on Berlusconi's death at some time, by playing the watch. It's not that stupid after all, the Italian right should have a little hard time recovering from Silvio's disparition.

Still, for many other reasons, stated above and not, it's stupid.

[Zanas]

Renzi will be bringing in a bunch of younger ministers, plus some businesspeople.

Wow. Let me guess: he'll meet with the Pope sometime, too?

Yeah, probably have a selfie with Barack too.

[Zanas]

I'm under the impression, true or false, that Livorno is a quite left-wing city of workers tradition. Is the M5S vote there a kind of left-wing protest vote against a tired PD establishment or something else ?

[Zanas]

What is an "Assessor" in the Italian context ?

[Zanas]

What I'm not getting is for what exactly the two main blocs going to a runoff are running ? Will they be running for all seats, thus excluding every first round party from Parliament ? Or are the first seats given to every one who gets 3% in the first round, except the rest for which the two main blocs will be fighting in the runoff ? And will there be a majority bonus in the runoff as well ?

[Zanas]

There's no point having a majority bonus that kicks in at 50% because at 50% you already have a majority...

Samuel Tilden says hi. (although that was an electoral college election)

French municipal election says hi.

[Zanas]

For a bit of fun, they should make Grillo President.

[Zanas]

50 years old ? Wow, is that the most senile age floor for a political function out there ? I can't say I know of a later one.

[Zanas]

The standoff on electoral reform is coming to a close. Debate of the bill is about to start in the House, and Renzi has made it clear he won't accept any further amendment (which would force the bill to go back to the Senate, where the government's majority is very shaky). However, the anti-Renzi wing of the PD is up in arms against it, to an extent never seen before. Even the more moderate ones (like Bersani) seemingly seriously threaten to vote down the bill if changes aren't made. But Renzi has not flinched, and is even considering tying up the bill to a vote of confidence (effectively meaning "if the Italicum doesn't pass, this parliament goes down"). Today the PD has kicked out all the anti-Italicum PD members from the relevant parliamentary committee. Whatever happens, this will be a key test for both Renzi and the PD minority. The stakes are almost as high as they were for the Presidential election.

Are the anti-Renzi people ideologically coherent or are they fom different groups?

They're commonly interpreted as being on the PD's left, and claim to guard the party's traditional postcommunist "identity" against Renzi's third-wayish policies and hyper-modernistic style. This claim can be taken with varying degrees of seriousness depending on the speaker. Civati, who leads the most radical wing of the opposition, has always been known for his left-wing stance (even though he was formerly allied with Renzi, based on the old v. new divide in the party). Fassina too was always on the PD's left, but he kept his mouth shut when he was part of the do-nothing Letta government. He also hold a major personal grudge against Renzi and it's pretty clear he wants to do harm more than anything. Cuperlo also has positioned himself as a left-winger, but he became a known political figure when he challenged Renzi, so it's impossible to know how much of his stance is caused by the will to differentiate himself. Rosy Bindi has also long been an avowed left-winger, despite her Christian Democratic roots. For Bersani and D'Alema, it gets a bit murkier. Bersani was never exactly much of a left-wing flamethrower, but in terms of style, there is obviously a huge clash between him and Renzi (Bersani is known for his devotion to the party as a collective and his distaste for personalism). D'Alema is just a scheming, arrogant old clan leader who's desperately trying to keep being relevant after Renzi sidelined him. There are other, more minor figures, whose opposition to Renzi can be explained as about 50% political positioning and 50% personal distaste for Renzi.

While we're at it, are there significant figures or factions to the right of Renzi inside the PD ? Or inside the centro-sinistra camp ?

[Zanas]

So Lega Nord has consistently overtaken Forza Italia in the national polls, for a few months now (13-14 vs. 12-13). What does that mean exactly ? Better diffusion of the LN vote nation-wide ? Or mega-overperformance in the North like 60 % ? And how is Lega Nord going to compete in the Centre and the South ?

[Zanas]

I still haven't been making much progress in my goal of actually learning about Italian politics

Could this lead to a reduction in the number of parties? Like voters would abandon smaller parties for bigger ones, and make the Big 3 more "big tent"?

It could, but you can always expect Italian politics to produce the unexpectable...

[Zanas]

Also, why are polls all over the place regarding Italy? Some show only a 3% lead for the PD, others show 11% leads. What is this?

3 to 4-pt margins of error will do that to ya.

[Zanas]

There's a high chance he'll die of some venereal disease by next election, I assume.

I already have a bottle of champagne "au frais" in my fridge for when that happens.

[Zanas]

Yeah we let that one slip through. M5S just gained Roma and Milano, with two women elected mayors ! Seems like the "center"-right just went full "everybody but Renzi" when eliminated from the runoffs. Now to see what M5S can actually do, especially in the utmostly ungovernable Rome.

[Zanas]

Also, out of curiosity, does anyone know the last time when the Big 4 had GEs in the same year?

Of course if you ask questions like that you'll have me spend 15 min to find out. That would be 1924. Of course one of those was a bit... questionable.