Do you think there will be a significant third party showing Nov NJ Election?

[jman123]

Do you think there will be a significant third party showing Nov NJ Election? Murphy and Guadagno won their primaries with just below 50 percent. A plurality. They are relatively weak. What are your thoughts and estimates?

[hurricanehink]

Green Party (the main liberal  3rd Party) candidate Seth Kaper-Dale could attract *some* of the Bernie Bro support, but not much. New Jersey is a very establishment state (for now).

Last year in the primaries, Bernie got 328,058 votes, or 36.68% of the total. In the general, Jill Stein only got 37,772 votes, which for comparison is 11% of Bernie's total. I'd wager that of the 260,039 opposition votes (primary voters who didn't back Murphy), Kaper-Dale might get 11% (28,604) if he's lucky, which would be four times as many as Steve Welzer got as Green Party nom in 2013.

On the Republican side in the 2016 primary, Cruz and Kasich received 87,740 votes despite them having withdrawn by then. This is in the ballpark of the 72,477 votes that Johnson got for Libertarian Party. With 129,925 votes against the establishment Guadagno, there would likely be a similar dropoff for the main conservative 3rd party, the Libertarians, which picked up 12,155 votes in 2013.

In short, I like stats, but I really have no idea 😜

[BudgieForce]

In the 2009 Governor election, I remember quite abit of speculation that Chris Daggett, who was running as an independent, would take enough support from Christie where Corzine could slip through and win. That didnt happen because quite abit of Daggetts support evaporated on election day, but even still, he managed over 5%. At the moment, it doesnt seem like theres any independent making the kind of headway Daggetts was to get a substantial amount of support, but it wouldnt be unprecedented.

[Dr. MB]

I hope. But, it's not gonna happen.

If I was in NJ, I'd vote for Seth Kaper Dale. Can't stand either Murphy (too establishment) or Guadagno (too Christie).