University of Arkansas: Hillary +2 on Generic R

[Miles]

Article.

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I wish they tested actual candidates

[Tender Branson]

This is comparable with previous AR polls.

[barfbag]

Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, I don't think Generic Republican Candidate will be nominated.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She put states like these in play but not necessarily win them but her best bet en route 268 with CO, NV plus a bellweather like NH, OH or Va.

[memphis]

2016 is going to be epic. Can't wait!

[Lief 🗽]

Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, I don't think Generic Republican Candidate will be nominated.

Fortunately, you mean. Generic Republican would have defeated Obama in 2012, for example.

[Niemeyerite]

Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, I don't think Generic Republican Candidate will be nominated.

You sure?

[Maxwell]

Generic always polls better than actual, so Hillary is probably in the clear.

[barfbag]

Unfortunately for Hillary Clinton, I don't think Generic Republican Candidate will be nominated.

Fortunately, you mean. Generic Republican would have defeated Obama in 2012, for example.

No unfortunately because Generic Republican Candidate won't be running. Obama was also fortunate if you're trying to make a pun.

[Mr. Morden]

This is comparable with previous AR polls.

Isn't this the only previous 2016 Arkansas poll?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=177623.0

[IceSpear]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

[Flake]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

[IceSpear]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

Still, imagine a poll showing a certain Republican leading generic D by 2 points in Maryland. When I look at it from that perspective, it's easy to see why the Republicans are in desperation mode trying to bring Hillary down.

[Miles]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

This.

Its not an apples-to-apples comparison. Obama's huge losing margins in states like AR and WV are unique to him. Any R would get crushed in MD.

[barfbag]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

This.

Its not an apples-to-apples comparison. Obama's huge losing margins in states like AR and WV are unique to him. Any R would get crushed in MD.

They aren't unique to him, but Hillary Clinton would have and certainly will do better if she runs again. I put WV and AR in the likely Republican column of light red states along with GA, SC, LA, and AZ. She could put most of these into play with the exception of maybe SC.

[Miles]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

This.

Its not an apples-to-apples comparison. Obama's huge losing margins in states like AR and WV are unique to him. Any R would get crushed in MD.

They aren't unique to him, but Hillary Clinton would have and certainly will do better if she runs again. I put WV and AR in the likely Republican column of light red states along with GA, SC, LA, and AZ. She could put most of these into play with the exception of maybe SC.

Almost any white Democrat would have done noticeably better in those states.

[Flake]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

Still, imagine a poll showing a certain Republican leading generic D by 2 points in Maryland. When I look at it from that perspective, it's easy to see why the Republicans are in desperation mode trying to bring Hillary down.

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

This.

Its not an apples-to-apples comparison. Obama's huge losing margins in states like AR and WV are unique to him. Any R would get crushed in MD.

The problem is that race plays a huge role in Arkansas politics, Arkansas has never voted for someone who is not white at the statewide level, President Obama would lose unbelievably against any Republican challenger, so as long as the Democrats nominate a Clinton then Arkansas will be in play.

[morgieb]

I know it's 2013, but if she's leading a Generic R in freaking Arkansas.....

[Mr. Morden]

I know it's 2013, but if she's leading a Generic R in freaking Arkansas.....

And yet, she's tied with Christie in Iowa, and losing to him by 1 point Colorado.  If we take the current polling map seriously, there are a lot of big swings.

[pbrower2a]

Romney won Arkansas in 2012 by about the same margin Obama won Maryland. Just for perspective.

Yeah, but Arkansas is very fond of the Clintons, most voters there are registered Democrats, and President Obama is very deeply hated up there.

Still, imagine a poll showing a certain Republican leading generic D by 2 points in Maryland. When I look at it from that perspective, it's easy to see why the Republicans are in desperation mode trying to bring Hillary down.

A poll showing a generic R up by 2% in Maryland would indicate that the recent D coalition for victory is in trouble and that the Democratic nominee needs a new coalition to win the next Presidential election. The Democratic nominee would have a chance to lose anywhere between 42 and 48 states and get somewhere between 10 and 119 electoral votes. The reason for such a broad range of bad results is that two of the states on the margin would be California and New York. Coalitions can collapse; look at the Carter coalition between 1976 and 1980 or the Hoover coalition between 1928 and 1932.

Arkansas is not 'near' any giant states in electoral votes that would travel with it. Maryland is just blandly and unselectively liberal. Arkansas is less like Texas in its politics than Maryland is like California. The only 'somewhat similar' state in politics to Arkansas with more than ten electoral votes is Georgia. It has had its swings between populism and conservatism. Most of the states that more heavily voted for Romney in 2012 and some that less heavily voted for him in 2012 are 'conservative' for very different reasons.

So what if the Democratic nominee for President were a Mormon who won the blessing of the LDS hierarchy and had a 6% lead in Utah despite being a liberal because he lives a model life for a Mormon? What would that say of any trend outside of Utah? Practically nothing. Such states as Alabama, Nebraska, and Texas are politically conservative for reasons irrelevant to Utah. Did I tell you that the nominee's parents are Samoan? The ten electoral votes of Idaho and Utah are still not enough for the Democrats if they are losing Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and one of Pennsylvania and Virginia.
 
As it is, the Democrats show no sign of a collapse of the current coalition of victory, and states like Arkansas, Kentucky, and Louisiana are added layers of icing on a cake.

[JRP1994]

A better example by which to place this in perspective:

In 2012, Romney won Arkansas by 23.69%. Obama won Massachusetts by 23.14%

This is essentially the equivalent of a late-2009 poll showing Romney leading a generic Democrat by 2 points in Massachusetts.

[The Mikado]

Arkansas will go to the GOP again, but it might be like 53-46 rather than 61-37.  Rather, I'm curious whether Clinton doing this well in Arkansas suggests good things for Missouri.

[pbrower2a]

We need to wait a year before we can predict how such states as Arkansas will go in the 2016 Presidential election. By then we will have Congressional and Senatorial elections to determine whether those states are vulnerable to any Democrat at all.  On the other side, should Republicans pick up open Senate seats in Iowa, Michigan, or Wisconsin, Republicans can have a real chance to win the Presidency.

[TDAS04]

Hillary probably would have carried Arkansas had she been the nominee in 2008, but it would be much less of a sure thing in 2016, after 4 years of working for a black POTUS who has pretty much defined the modern Democratic Party for the past 8 years.  A Hillary victory in Arkansas is still possible (if she runs) but I would be surprised of if her chances would be greater than 50/50.

As for Kentucky and West Virginia, a Hillary victory might have been possible in 2008, but very unlikely in 2016.  She would do better than Obama, but she has become too linked to Obama to actually win those states' electoral votes, in my view.

[pbrower2a]

This is how the electoral map looks at 10:30 PM EDT on the night of Election Day 2014 if Hillary Clinton is going to win much like Obama in 2008 or2012, except with some states much closer but not likely wins:

No state with closed polls is anything other than close if it is not yet called. Polls are still open in the Far West. Iowa is probably about to be called or was just called for Hillary, and one of the other states in pink may or not be called before the states on the West Coast get called. Called states are yellowed and lightened to orange (for Hillary -- 176 electoral votes, 182 with Iowa) or aqua (for the Republican). One of the states in pink and the sure-thing states on the West Coast (84 electoral votes) win it for Hillary.

Now what does it look like with such states as Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Louisiana are leaning slightly for Hillary?