University of Arkansas: Hillary +2 on Generic R

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't think Hilary is winning Arkansas. Once they find out about how she is an actual liberal and not just the wife of a former president/governor. I wouldn't take this too hard, in the end, I expect republicans to win the state by a Bush 2004 margin. If another democrat gets elected, I expect the margin to be a little larger. You can argue against me, but I don't think this small lead will last.

[dmmidmi]

I don't think Hilary is winning Arkansas. Once they find out about how she is an actual liberal and not just the wife of a former president/governor.

I don't live there, but since she has been in the public eye there for much longer than anywhere else, I get the feeling that people in Arkansas have already formed their opinion of Hillary Clinton, and there's little left for them to "find out about" her.

[IceSpear]

Arkansas will go to the GOP again, but it might be like 53-46 rather than 61-37.  Rather, I'm curious whether Clinton doing this well in Arkansas suggests good things for Missouri.

Yeah, assuming these polls showing Hillary doing well in Appalachia hold up, Missouri would probably be a lean D state.

[IceSpear]

I don't think Hilary is winning Arkansas. Once they find out about how she is an actual liberal and not just the wife of a former president/governor. I wouldn't take this too hard, in the end, I expect republicans to win the state by a Bush 2004 margin. If another democrat gets elected, I expect the margin to be a little larger. You can argue against me, but I don't think this small lead will last.

It's not so much that people think she'll win, just that she's digging into the GOP coalition. The GOP desperately needs to GAIN support right now, they can't afford to lose any of the support they currently have,

[progressive85]

I can see how Bill Clinton might campaign in the state.  He has great affection for his home state and he will want Hillary to carry it.  Bill is actually a really popular figure even in Arkansas and make no mistake, he will be out on the campaign trail.

[Liberalrocks]

I can see how Bill Clinton might campaign in the state.  He has great affection for his home state and he will want Hillary to carry it.  Bill is actually a really popular figure even in Arkansas and make no mistake, he will be out on the campaign trail.

This. I expect Arkansas to be contested by the Clinton campaign and Bill proably wanting to win it. I bet they place money into the state and contest it then reevaluate funds in October. It may be close in the polling but dont underestimate the power of Bill on the ground. In the 08 primaries he flipped many small counties for Hillary in many of the states he campaigned in, Arkansas is full of smaller counties that would need to flip in order for Hillary to take it. They may come up short, but I expect they will at least fight for it.

[pbrower2a]

Hillary Clinton +2 on "Generic R" in Arkansas indicates that a significant part of the hemorrhaging of D-leaning votes has been reversed. In 1996 (in which Bill Clinton won Arkansas by a landslide margin), Clinton won all counties except in the northwestern corner of the state.

It's been a long time since Arkansas was really close in a Presidential campaign other than 1980 (something of a surprise) and 2000. Dubya then won it 51-45, and Gore still won Pulaski County (Little Rock) and most of the counties in the eastern two tiers of the state and a few in the southwest -- but practically nothing to the north and west of US 67 and Interstate 30.  Arkansas seems to go wildly one way or another. It went 69-31 for Nixon in 1972,  60-36 for Reagan in 1984, but 65-35 for Carter in 1976. 

The Ozarks are gone for the Democrats except that the northwestern, somewhat urban counties (Benton, Washington, and maybe Sebastian) would have to get closer. Wal*Mart influence? Wal*Mart is one of the biggest customers for welfare recipients and is one of the biggest transactors in SNAP payments. It has more of a stake in welfare than does Whole Foods.  Hillary would have to pick up northeastern Arkansas (Craighead, Greene, Mississippi), some of whose counties went to Al Gore in 2000.

There could be much nostalgia for Bill Clinton in 2016, especially after the catastrophic failure of Dubya as President in economics (things could be good for a while, and then one got the bill) and of a lopsided recovery under Obama.

[Sbane]

Considering that Hillary won't be able to run away from Obama, I doubt she wins Arkansas, West Virginia or Kentucky. Missouri could be interesting, but whatever gains she makes in the Ozarks may be countered by a poor performance in the suburbs. Though Obama already performed poorly in the suburbs in 2012 so it might not be that big of an issue.

[TDAS04]

Hillary would probably do much better than Obama in Arkansas, since she's a Clinton and she's white, but the fact that she she worked for Obama might be too much of a burden for her to overcome to actually win the state.

[Oak Hills]

I don't think Hilary is winning Arkansas. Once they find out about how she is an actual liberal and not just the wife of a former president/governor. I wouldn't take this too hard, in the end, I expect republicans to win the state by a Bush 2004 margin. If another democrat gets elected, I expect the margin to be a little larger. You can argue against me, but I don't think this small lead will last.

If they find that out, they will be mistaken.

[eric82oslo]

The ghost of liberalism oooooh lol.

Are Americans really this stupid? And yes, I'm talking to the young Republicans among you.

[Tender Branson]

PPP backs this up ...