University of Arkansas: Hillary +2 on Generic R

[TDAS04]

Hillary probably would have carried Arkansas had she been the nominee in 2008, but it would be much less of a sure thing in 2016, after 4 years of working for a black POTUS who has pretty much defined the modern Democratic Party for the past 8 years.  A Hillary victory in Arkansas is still possible (if she runs) but I would be surprised of if her chances would be greater than 50/50.

As for Kentucky and West Virginia, a Hillary victory might have been possible in 2008, but very unlikely in 2016.  She would do better than Obama, but she has become too linked to Obama to actually win those states' electoral votes, in my view.

[TDAS04]

Hillary would probably do much better than Obama in Arkansas, since she's a Clinton and she's white, but the fact that she she worked for Obama might be too much of a burden for her to overcome to actually win the state.