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| | |-+  Census population estimates 2011-2019
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Author Topic: Census population estimates 2011-2019  (Read 90204 times)
Tender Branson
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« Reply #575 on: January 13, 2019, 03:46:26 am »

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.

Here is the good stuff:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128464.msg2762803#msg2762803
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jimrtex
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« Reply #576 on: January 13, 2019, 11:54:53 pm »

Where are these thoughts of NY losing two seats coming from? It seems NY has been on track to lose 1 for 7 years or so. That seat itself has always been likely to be NY22/NY24  as Dems carve up Katko and protect Brindisi or another Dem. I mean of course Dems are going to get messy with the lines in Long Island, Staten Island, and the Hudson Valley, but that is to be expected.

With the addition of the 2018 census, the map has changed.

Img

New York has had a negative second derivative for all 8 years of the decade. It reached a peak in 2015. So not only is it declining, it is declining faster. It is like it is in a dive, and the pilot has pushed the stick forward, and Captain Cuomo is no Captain "Sully".

I think EDS uses a weighted projection. But I was unable to reproduce their projection of the 2020 population, even that based on 2000-2008 estimates.

I did calculate the quotients for the states in the bubble based on the most recent estimate, and I think a more reliable projection would show, California, Minnesota, and New York in contention for the 435th seat.

If New York's decline continues to accelerate it might fall below the others. Minnesota is increasing slightly, while California is slowing down. For 2010-2014 California was growing faster than the US as a whole, while for 2014-2018 it was slower.

By 2020, Florida(+2) and Texas(+3) will have registered their gains, while Alabama and Ohio will have registered their losses.

Illinois and Virginia will just be coming into the picture, but won't see a change before the Census.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbedk
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« Reply #577 on: January 15, 2019, 01:34:30 pm »

MT-02 is now a possibility again? My how things change. I remember the days when it was so close but missed the mark.
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« Reply #578 on: January 15, 2019, 08:37:07 pm »

MT-02 is now a possibility again? My how things change. I remember the days when it was so close but missed the mark.

It has always been like that. It and +1 or -1 for California have always been on the bubble it seems.
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Vern
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« Reply #579 on: January 19, 2019, 08:42:22 pm »

Anybody have a handy link to how far off the final Census estimates were last decade vs the actual census in 2010 by state?  Of course with the caveat that past results don't equal future performance.

Here is the good stuff:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=128464.msg2762803#msg2762803

If GA is off by that much again in 2020 then NC could pass it
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Nyvin
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« Reply #580 on: February 15, 2019, 10:05:12 pm »

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #581 on: February 15, 2019, 10:33:07 pm »

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?

Generally late March.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #582 on: February 16, 2019, 08:22:34 pm »

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?
The scheduled release is April 2019.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #583 on: February 18, 2019, 10:22:07 pm »

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?
The scheduled release is April 2019.

I think the shutdown shoved it back quite a bit.
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#KavanaughForPrison
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« Reply #584 on: February 25, 2019, 11:06:56 pm »

I heard something recently that the states of Virginia and Tennessee were shown by some form of new data to have a surprisingly large population drop, and then both states were now on track to lose a Congressional District each in 2020. Only 1 detail I am forgetting: was it a strange dream or was it something real? Can someone please tell me.
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Former Senator Zaybay
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« Reply #585 on: February 28, 2019, 12:15:44 am »

I heard something recently that the states of Virginia and Tennessee were shown by some form of new data to have a surprisingly large population drop, and then both states were now on track to lose a Congressional District each in 2020. Only 1 detail I am forgetting: was it a strange dream or was it something real? Can someone please tell me.

Dream, VA has been showing an average population growth that is higher than the nation, so its not losing a seat anytime soon.

TN, Im not sure about.

The list is already kinda finalized for what the state that can gain/lose are gonna be.
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #586 on: February 28, 2019, 12:35:23 am »

I heard something recently that the states of Virginia and Tennessee were shown by some form of new data to have a surprisingly large population drop, and then both states were now on track to lose a Congressional District each in 2020. Only 1 detail I am forgetting: was it a strange dream or was it something real? Can someone please tell me.

Virginia and Tennessee are both growing a little above the national average. The last time Tennessee lost a seat was in 1970, only to gain it back in 1980.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #587 on: March 05, 2019, 05:08:04 pm »

Is there any set date for the 2018 county estimates?
The scheduled release is April 2019.

I think the shutdown shoved it back quite a bit.

April 18th is the release date or the 16th if you've got embargoed media access.
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