Spain General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

They could start by thinking about how they might tackle (or at least ameliorate) systemic social problems next time they're in power, rather than waste their time on useless gesture politics.

Well, that's a lesson that could be taken on board by just about every social democratic party in Europe, no?

[Velasco]

They could start by thinking about how they might tackle (or at least ameliorate) systemic social problems next time they're in power, rather than waste their time on useless gesture politics.

Well, that's a lesson that could be taken on board by just about every social democratic party in Europe, no?

Pretty much. However, in Spain the need of tackling the real issues is much more pressing.

As a result, traditionally the PSOE has always pandered to the social liberal franquista sociologicamente (outdated expression, but you know what I mean?) urban middle class that is, eminently centrist (both in a modern and a UCD meaning) which basically means the PSOE can never shift too much to the left as they still need these voters to win.

IF they did shift considerably to the left, the PSOE would abandon its pretensions of being a big tent for all Spaniards, which, from my own personal understanding of democracy, would be a good thing by making the PSOE a representative exclusively of the centre-left. But that would reduce their voters share to 20-25% while leaving a huge space in the middle for liberal-centrist voters to adhere to the PP (à la '96 or '00) or the creation of a new centrist party in the middle (which I'm not altogether sure UPyD could fill, as it's more of a anti-nationalist centre-left party than an actual centrist party).

Isn't there a contradiction between "social liberal" and "sociologically Francoist"? I didn't understand that part very well. I agree partially on your appreciation on PSOE moving too leftwards. However, Spanish socialists are not trying to become in a carbon copy of our United Left, in any case they are making an attempt to recover some forgotten principles of reformist socialdemocracy.

The political conference is starting badly trying to avoid the debate on PSOE's federal proposal. As Antonio Elorza says in the article that I'll link below, it seems that socialists are proposing hundreds of inarticulate measures without analyzing the genesis of problems nor confronting reality. It's not that the other opposition parties (IU and UPyD) give the impression of being credible alternatives right now, they seem to be expecting to pick up some of the shipwreck remains.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2013/11/08/actualidad/1383935225_190255.html

As for UPyD, aside socially liberal stances, I'd say the party is drifting towards center right, but it's hard to know what's UPYD social agenda right now. Polls doesn't indicate that many disillusioned PP voters are joining Rosa Díez. Die hard conservatives may like confrontation with peripheral nationalism, but not other proposals, so they don't join UPyD. Perhaps those centrist voters which used to oscillate between PP and PSOE are not enthusiastically convinced by any political option. Besides, the middle class in Spain is diminishing with the crisis. 

[Velasco]

I forgot this. Celeste-Tell poll:

PP 31.8%; PSOE 28.2%; IU 13.3%; UPyD 7.9%; ERC 2.4%; CiU 2.3%; Amaiur 1.7%; Equo 1.7%; EAJ-PNV 1.4%; Ciutadans 1.4%; Compromís 1.2%.

Turnout (estimated) 55.1%.

http://www.celeste-tel.es/images/Barometroelectoralsocialnoviembre2013.pdf

[Nanwe]

Isn't there a contradiction between "social liberal" and "sociologically Francoist"? I didn't understand that part very well. I agree partially on your appreciation on PSOE moving too leftwards. However, Spanish socialists are not trying to become in a carbon copy of our United Left, in any case they are making an attempt to recover some forgotten principles of reformist socialdemocracy.

I could have explained myself better but let's see. I don't think it's a contradiction. Franquismo sociologico is more a thing of the 80s, but overall among most people is a certain belief that Franco's time were economically good and there's no proper rejection of it but neither a great support of it, rather a certain ambivalence. This can still be perfectly compatible with a social liberal world view, although as the last generations that lived (and remember) Franco's time, so say anyone born before 1965-67 grow older, the compatibility of the two things will disappear.

I think I've reading so much stuff about the 80s Spain that I might be just projecting some stuff into today's politics.

Of course they won't become a IU, especially now that IU itself has left its moderate days under Llamazares to be once again led by the PCE. But the PSOE has always excelled at speaking red and then acting like a centrist. In 1986 and especially '89 (y dale con los 80), the party talked in terms of socializing the economy and expanding the welfare state and their economic policy, however was largely to cut down labour costs (not a bad thing, but just pointing out the divergence) and to drive down inflation though a tight fiscal policy.

The political conference is starting badly trying to avoid the debate on PSOE's federal proposal. As Antonio Elorza says in the article that I'll link below, it seems that socialists are proposing hundreds of inarticulate measures without analyzing the genesis of problems nor confronting reality. It's not that the other opposition parties (IU and UPyD) give the impression of being credible alternatives right now, they seem to be expecting to pick up some of the shipwreck remains.

Well, we all knew they'd try not to face the party-splitting problem, at least not so publicly.

About IU and UPyD, it's hard to be seen as an alternative when you are a minor party but at the same time, how can you ever prove that you are unless voters give them a chance? (Am I seriously defending voting for IU?, God)

As for UPyD, aside socially liberal stances, I'd say the party is drifting towards center right, but it's hard to know what's UPYD social agenda right now. Polls doesn't indicate that many disillusioned PP voters are joining Rosa Díez. Die hard conservatives may like confrontation with peripheral nationalism, but not other proposals, so they don't join UPyD. Perhaps those centrist voters which used to oscillate between PP and PSOE are not enthusiastically convinced by any political option. Besides, the middle class in Spain is diminishing with the crisis.  

I'd agree the party has been moving somewhat to the centre to attract unhappy moderate PP voters but I agree it's very hard to know.

Hardcore PP are in love with Ciutadans and their new project at a national level, Movimiento Ciudadano. I think it's because C's is seen as a more moderate version of UPyD and there are rumours that Rivera was back in uni a NNGG member. Link to MC's webpage: Movciudadano.

I forgot this. Celeste-Tell poll:

PP 31.8%; PSOE 28.2%; IU 13.3%; UPyD 7.9%; ERC 2.4%; CiU 2.3%; Amaiur 1.7%; Equo 1.7%; EAJ-PNV 1.4%; Ciutadans 1.4%; Compromís 1.2%.

Turnout (estimated) 55.1%.

http://www.celeste-tel.es/images/Barometroelectoralsocialnoviembre2013.pdf

Seems possible but I think expected turnout is too low. Also, I'd say PSOE is below 28% atm, not by much.

[Velasco]

PSOE has always excelled at speaking red and then acting like a centrist. In 1986 and especially '89 (y dale con los 80), the party talked in terms of socializing the economy and expanding the welfare state and their economic policy, however was largely to cut down labour costs (not a bad thing, but just pointing out the divergence) and to drive down inflation though a tight fiscal policy.

People already know that PSOE is a moderate party. Socialists try desperately to connect again with their traditional voter base and they need to be credible again as a center left alternative to PP's "we must do this because there's no alternative". In the 80s socialists actually expanded welfare state and one of the best ministers in the González cabinets, Ernest Lluch, built our national healthcare system. Lluch was one of the few politicians that I can define as a Freedom Fighter in the last 35 years and was killed by ETA.

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It's not only a question of voters giving them a chance. Neither IU nor UPyD are connected with reality. Especially the latter is obsessed with issues with no relation with our desperate social and economic situation. The real Spain is the one that portraits the Cáritas reports on the increasing poverty. I've just googled "pobreza en España" and the first result is a news dated 19 hours ago: 2.5 million of children suffer malnutrition. Many families lack of money to feed adequately their children, whom eat their main food of the day in the school dining halls. Education budget is suffering severe cuts... Actually, the political debate is often focused in trivialities.

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C's is basically a populist party and its message is simple and direct, back to the bone. UPyD is somewhat populist as well (Toni Cantó), but in a lesser degree if compared with Rivera's troupe. I feel a deep distrust towards people like Albert Rivera and rumours on his past affiliation are not the main reason, though they might be symptomatic.

[Velasco]

Rubalcaba: "PSOE is back".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/10/inenglish/1384107424_772356.html

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Also, Rubalcaba stated that socialists must be present in the streets, in solidarity with the people demonstrating against the government and "defending what we set in motion". On the Catalonia's independence drive, he advocated for "unity and diversity" and for the need of rebuilding territorial relations with "mutual respect and affection".

On primary elections to elect the a candidate to run in the 2015 election, Rubalcaba stated (ironically) that they'll hold them "before PP, in any case". Primaries are not taking into account in PP's statutes. The potential candidates are:

- Carme Chacón: PSC member, former minister of defense, narrowly defeated in the race for the party's leadership by Rubalcaba in the 2012 convention. She's temporally retired in Miami, where she's teaching in Miami Dade College.

- Patxi López: former Basque regional premier (lehendakari), close ally of Rubalcaba and potential candidate of the party's establishment. 

- Eduardo Madina: MP for Bizkaia, in the Basque Country. He's the youngest in this group and  lacks governmental experience, which may be an advantage or disadvantage depending on circumstances. He's very cautious and perhaps overburdened with the hopes that some people put on him. At the moment he lacks the support of party bosses.

-Emiliano García-Page: mayor of Toledo and rival of PP's general secretary, Dolores de Cospedal, in Castilla-La Mancha. The most moderate and centrist, in the style of José Bono. He desires a "left-oriented" party but "permeable to other sensitivities."

Susana Díaz, the new Andalusian premier, is gaining relevance within the party. She made an emotional speech at the opening of the political conference, receiving a great ovation among delegates. "This conference has to wake illusion up and open the door for hope. We come with the responsibility of recovering the credibility of the people and of stopping the sadness that is flooding this country. And to prevent the right from finishing with the project of thousands of Spaniards in the next years." The concurrence especially liked this: "We took decisions that removed us from our social base and we themselves were not recognizing ourselves. There are gaps that we haven't been capable of blocking up. We still have not been capable of constructing this transformation process that Spain needs."

[Velasco]

Finally, there will be two questions for the Catalan referendum (and a date):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/12/12/inenglish/1386856018_634934.html

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However, the Spain's government is ill-disposed:

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And a PP spokesman in Catalonia states, following the party line:

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Regarding the questions:

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In the last paragraph, Junqueras refers to the first proposed question ("Do you want Catalonia to be a state?"), admitting that if that question gets a majority of affirmative votes but the second question ( "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state?") fails, "independence movement in Catalonia will not have won". Joan Herrera, leader of ICV-EUiA, stated that the first question appeals as well to federalists contrary to independence and PSC stances. "The question allows to add all those that we do not want to continue like till now", has said Herrera.

[Velasco]

I hate monologues, but let's update this thing.

According to El Pais the controversial abortion reform is eroding voting support for PP. A Metroscopia survey (released on Jan 12) indicates that PSOE would win by a 1.5% margin if elections were held today.

The poll shows a strong disapproval of the reform sponsored by Justice Minister Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón. On the following questions and asserts, interviewees replied as follows:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/11/media/1389453933_455931.html

-Should political parties allow deputies to vote according with their conscience when the bill is put before the Congress?: 91% agrees; 6% disagrees.

-Has every pregnant woman right to decide if to continue or not with her pregnancy?: 86% agrees; 11% disagrees.

-Must fetus malformation be maintained as motive to abort legally?: 84% agrees; 10% disagrees.

-This reform will increase clandestine abortions in conditions of insecurity: 78& agrees; 16% disagrees.

-This reform wasn't necessary: 78% agrees; 18% disagrees.

-In the present, there's not a social demand that justifies this reform: 75% agrees; 16% disagrees.

-This reform has been promoted in order to please Catholic Church hardliners: 75% agrees; 17% disagrees.

The conclusion that El País extracts of this poll is:

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However, the Celeste-Tel January survey shows PP ahead by a 2.3% margin:



El Mundo (PP-friendly newspaper, whereas El País is more PSOE-friendly) went further in its last poll (Sigma-Dos, January), with PP leading by 8.9%.



I tend to think that Celeste-Tel might be more accurate or less skewed, but who knows.

-On a side note, Elena Valenciano (Rubalcaba's deputy general secretary) might be running as PSOE candidate in the next European elections. Socialists are weighing her candidacy in order to make a strong list to challenge the ruling Popular Party. PSOE hopes that elections will be the beginning of a favourable cycle, followed by regional, local elections and the 2015 general election. If Valenciano runs, she might share the top of the list with MEP (and former Justice Minister) Juan Fernando López Aguilar, who ran in 2009 as PSOE's top candidate.

PP might place Miguel Arias Cañete, currently Minister of Agriculture.

[Niemeyerite]

I read about Valenciano and Cañete in El País, but what I've been told by a friend who works for elplural.com is that Juan Fernando López Aguilar is the most likely number 1 in the list (again and even after having endorsed Chacón in 2012) and that Rajoy has offered Mayor Oreja the 1st place yet again, to keep the fascist vote inside the PP. Ana Mato and Cañete will probably be on the European Parliament, too.

[Velasco]

All is hanging in the air, then. My impression is that López Aguilar might be convenient candidate, because he's rather popular and even somewhat charismatic. Besides, many people in PSOE might be thinking that he's better in exile. Not to mention the PSOE's current leadership in the Canaries; the further he is, the better for them

I'm not sure if placing a hardliner like Mayor Oreja on the top is a good idea. Arias Cañete is much less controversial and he's an expert on EU issues. Did your contact give you more inputs? I live too far from Madrid

[YL]

Do you think there's much chance of IU getting close to their current poll ratings in an actual election?

[Niemeyerite]

Do you think there's much chance of IU getting close to their current poll ratings in an actual election?

If you want my opinion, no. At least not in the European elections... I've been told (by another friend, actually) that some people (some very famous people, who enjoy appearing on TV one day and the following) to the left of IU will run for the EU elections. That may kill IU there, but I'm not so sure they'll do it... The person who's told me this is of course a member of IU, and he says he'd vote for the others I may give names sooner or later.

All is hanging in the air, then. My impression is that López Aguilar might be convenient candidate, because he's rather popular and even somewhat charismatic. Besides, many people in PSOE might be thinking that he's better in exile. Not to mention the PSOE's current leadership in the Canaries; the further he is, the better for them

I'm not sure if placing a hardliner like Mayor Oreja on the top is a good idea. Arias Cañete is much less controversial and he's an expert on EU issues. Did your contact give you more inputs? I live too far from Madrid

On Saturday we'll know when the primaries will happen, not even Tomás Gómez (who was in my town today, and I had the opportunity to talk to him: http://www.telemadrid.es/noticias/madrid/noticia/gomez-denuncia-la-injusta-subida-de-impuestos-en-san-sebastian-de-los-reyes I'm the guy wearing glasses behind him) knows, but most people seem to think they'll take place by November.

I agree with you on López Aguilar, some people may want him in Brussels, there he ain't be 'dangerous'. But hey, maybe if he wins by +5 points (unlikely, I know) the media will begin talking about him as a potential candidate... And I have the feeling that he actually wouldn't mind running (quite the opposite), what do you think, Dani?

Arias Cañete clearly wants to be something in the EU Commission, but maybe Rajoy wants him to run in Andalusia or to have him remain Minister, as he's one of the least-unpopular, and Rajoy needs some ministers to burn after having burnt Gallardón But I trust my contact and he thinks Mayor Oreja is Rajoy's choice right now. I, like you, believe putting a hard-liner (I have no problems calling him a fascist, lepenist or whatever they call them now) will backfire just as I think the Abortion Law did. Not only because the far-right will vote PP no matter what if there isn't a viable choice from the right, but because PP needs the centre to win again.

Now that I mention "an option from the right". This same person has told me that Santiago Abascal will create a new party and right know he's 50-50 about running for the EU elections, with him or Ortega Lara leading the pack.

So, this could be the scenario:

-Fascists: "La España en Marcha": Falange, DN, AN, and other Golden Down-llike parties. Will run.

-PxC and some other parties supposedly supported by LePen: are running, but I don't know about the impact they'll have. In a conversation with Esteban Ibarra (president of "Movimiento contra la Intolerancia") he told me these ones are the ones he fears the most, and that in his opinion they have a chance to get 1 deputy in the EU Parliament if LePen comes here to officially endorse them.

-Santiago Abascal, Ortega Lara and maybe Vidal-Quadras joke-ultraconservative party.

-PP

-UPyD

-Movimiento Ciudadano

-Centre-right nationalists: PNV, CiU...

-PSOE

-Left nationalists: ERC, Bildu...

-IU

-Joint list of communists, famous personalities and others

And the surprise candidate could be Miguel Ángel Revilla (that's just my opinion, no inputs). I've seen him too much on TV (and not only to talk about his books or the economy), I think he wants to measure his support around Spain, even if he's said 14546656 times that he'll never run for President.

If at least 2/3 of the new parties I've mentioned decide to run, we'll have a very interesting (and frightening) election in May.

[Velasco]

Do you think there's much chance of IU getting close to their current poll ratings in an actual election?

Hard to say. Social unrest favours IU but, on the other hand, speculations on the left-wing coalition surpassing PSOE sound rather fantastic. Neither PSOE is PASOK nor IU is Syriza -besides, IU is lacking of a charismatic leader like Tsipras-. I think we must wait until the European elections to see if IU is able to fulfill the expectations. My personal theory is that the border between a good and a mediocre result is the 1994 election. Then IU got 13.4% of the vote with a 59.1% turnout (roughly 2.5 million of votes).

http://www.historiaelectoral.com/eu1994.html

On Saturday we'll know when the primaries will happen, not even Tomás Gómez (who was in my town today, and I had the opportunity to talk to him: http://www.telemadrid.es/noticias/madrid/noticia/gomez-denuncia-la-injusta-subida-de-impuestos-en-san-sebastian-de-los-reyes I'm the guy wearing glasses behind him) knows, but most people seem to think they'll take place by November.

I agree with you on López Aguilar, some people may want him in Brussels, there he ain't be 'dangerous'. But hey, maybe if he wins by +5 points (unlikely, I know) the media will begin talking about him as a potential candidate... And I have the feeling that he actually wouldn't mind running (quite the opposite), what do you think, Dani?

Arias Cañete clearly wants to be something in the EU Commission, but maybe Rajoy wants him to run in Andalusia or to have him remain Minister, as he's one of the least-unpopular, and Rajoy needs some ministers to burn after having burnt Gallardón But I trust my contact and he thinks Mayor Oreja is Rajoy's choice right now. I, like you, believe putting a hard-liner (I have no problems calling him a fascist, lepenist or whatever they call them now) will backfire just as I think the Abortion Law did. Not only because the far-right will vote PP no matter what if there isn't a viable choice from the right, but because PP needs the centre to win again.

I saw your fringe and your glasses

As you say, it looks unlikely an outright socialist victory in the European elections. Perhaps if he gets a decent result -with 'decent' I mean PSOE tied or close to PP- he could eventually return to a major role in national politics. I don't see him as a candidate in the next primaries, but obviously he's not a featherweight. With Chacón or Madina winning the socialist primaries, he might get a major role. If an 'establishment' candidate wins the nomination to run in 2015, well... his stay in Brussels could be longer  This is speculative, I'm not into PSOE intrigues

I don't think that new party in the hard-right with Abascal, Vidal-Quadras and the other loonies has chances to go anywhere. The openly fascist "España en Marcha" even less. However, there's unrest amongst PP's hardliners and the Aguirre's fan club. An European election is the perfect occasion to collect protest votes. Nobody in this country knows which are Rajoy's intentions on anything, despite he always states that he likes to be predictable. For sure Rajoy and PP will take the next election seriously. What's quoted below makes sense and is somewhat worrying:

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I guess you mean that "Platform for Liberty", the national extension of the far-right Plataforma per Catalunya (PxC). If Le Pen endorses the Anglada bunch and even some member of the Panzer family consents to make a visit... Hell, it might be disgusting and you could expect some pulling effect.

The good thing is that the hard and the far right are splitted in the several bunches you mentioned. Also, Movimiento Ciudadano -which is not an extremist party, but a populist one- can get votes from some PP hardliners, because of Albert Rivera's popularity (good looking appearances in TV, anti-Catalan independentism) amongst these voters. Anyway, abstention is the main enemy of the Popular Party.

[Niemeyerite]

Santiago Abascal, Ortega Lara, a Suárez minister and others have announced today the creation of a new party to the right of the PP, Alejo Vidal-Quadras may eventually join it. So what I said yesterday was, at least, partially true:

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2014/01/14/52d51fd5268e3eaa318b4576.html

I think those guys could actually get a respectable % of the vote. Ortega Lara is like God for some "PPeros". It will certainly hurt Populars, and it could be what the PSOE needs to beat them in the EU Elections

López Aguilar endorsed Chacón and they're still good friends. He'll come to Sanse next month, do you want to me to make any specific question to him? I don't think he will run, mainly because it's all about name rec right now (I think that's why Chacón is leading by +10 points over Patxi López, Diaz and Madina in the last 2 polls)... but after a good result in May, his name rec may grow quite a bit. Even then, I don't think he has the support (outside of Canarias) to win and he may know it.

To be honest, I don't see how Chacón DOESN'T take it. She will have the support of PSC, about half of the Juventudes Socialistas and the PSPV, and maybe the support of the PSOE-Andalucía, not to say that López Aguilar probably won't run and endorse her. I will be voting for Madina (although this can change) and Tomás Gómez, ironically, seems to like Patxi López (the establishment favourite, those people Tomás Gómez fights against).

[Niemeyerite]

You heard it here first. I didn't want to give names because it was something a friend told me privately... But today it's news. Yesterday I was talking about Pablo Iglesias (without mentioning him), who wants to lead an "anti-cuts" list for the EU elections:

http://ecodiario.eleconomista.es/interstitial/volver/nuezene14/politica/noticias/5456691/01/14/Pablo-Iglesias-da-el-salto-a-la-politica-encabezara-una-lista-para-las-europeas.html

I'll tell you one more thing. There will be members of IU supporting them. Pablo Iglesias had been offered to be the number 8 in the IU list and he rejected. Some IU people are upset the candidate will be Willy Meyer yet again. Expect some to leave the coalition and join Monedero and Iglesias in their new adventure (JC Monedero is Hugo Chavez fanboy in Spain, very popular among the hard-left electorate).

Abascal Party (the new AP LoL) hurts PP + Pablo Iglesias Party (PIP) hurts IU + Movimiento Ciudadano (or Rivera Party) hurts PP and UPyD = PSOE is the big winner, or at least the less affected by these new parties.

My prediction for the EU elections would be (if things develop as I expect them to):

PSOE 30%
PP 28%
IU 9%
UPyD 6%
MC 4%
PIP 4%
CiUPNVetc 4%
ERCBilduetc 4%
AP 4%
Equoetc 2%
PxL 1%
España en marcha 1%
Others 3%

I forgot to mention this, but don't rule out a MC-Abascal coalition.

So, we'd have:

-Fascists (PxL, EeM): 2% (one could argue that Abascal and even some PP should be included here)
-Right 32% (PP and AP)
-Centre-to-centre-right: 14% (UPyD, MC and PNVCiU, even if they hate each other and shouldn't be included in the same category)

-Centre-left: 32% (PSOE and Equo)
-Left: 17% (IU, PIP, ERCBildu)

Just wishful thinking.

[Velasco]

Some people point that Spain is not only under an economic crisis; there's also a moral, political and territorial crisis. The political parties have never had such a low level of approval:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/17/inenglish/1389980385_808918.html

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According to Josep Ramoneda's analysis, the main causes of the disengagement of political parties -which are reluctant to acknowledge their big failure- from society are:

- Lack of empathy with the people. The crisis is only handled from a purely technocratic angle; unemployment figures are just statistics, not a sum of personal tragedies.

- The political class lives isolated in a glass bubble and is passive facing corruption, endogamic and corporatist. Parties encourage blind loyalty from their parliamentarians and membership; parliamentarian debates are restricted and actual political discussion discouraged.

- Promiscuity between money and politics. According to this analysis, politicians surrounded by bankers and businessmen, far from inspiring confidence, breed doubts among the people. For whom are they governing? How many debts have them to pay?

-Inefficiency of the parties in fulfilling: a) political representation b) selection of suitable people to hold the offices.

Conclusion: Citizens don't feel they from part of the decision making process. What people wants is that the political process be at their service and open discussion of public priorities.

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Regarding to that protest in Burgos -an old town in Castile, traditionalist, conservative and ruled by PP- the right wing press was crying out against the protesters, saying they were PSOE or IU puppets. That press is highly disconnected from reality; the influence of these parties in any type of civil movement tends to be zero. Of course, PSOE and IU try to add themselves to civil movements, such as those in defense of public healthcare and education (the so-called "green tide"), but they didn't generate them.

[Franknburger]

Velasco - that analysis of "moral and political crisis" sounds credible to me. Do you think there is a possibility of a Grillo-type movement evolving in Spain to capture all those disappointed voters? Or may it rather go German "Wutbürger" style, with a moderate but non-established party (á la Greens in Baden-Würtemberg, but of course a Spanish-style version)  benefitting? Or do nationalists/ regionalists on one side, and some right-wing populists on the other side, already provide sufficient opportunity for protest voters to prevent new movements from emerging?

[Velasco]

The questions are interesting, but I don't have a crystal ball

I think the Grillo movement is too sui generis to be extrapolable to other countries. To begin with, we would need a media figure like Beppe Grillo, capable to connect with people's dissatisfaction exclaiming: "Vafanculo!!!" We have some good comedians in the TV, but luckily they are not touched by partisan politics. Anyway, there's a potential for populism and we have some examples of media celebrities entering into politics. For example, actor Toni Cantó ran for UPYD in the Valencia district and won a seat. He earned popularity with his campaign song, the Toni Cantó Rap.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0s5SyET_Mw

The lyrics is something like this: "Clash, squandering, lies, corruption, unemployment, crisis, inept leaders, parties that belong to the past, (peripheral) nationalism that divide" ... In opposition, the chorus proclaims: "We are the world because we form it/ the spine and the heart of something ... We are UPyD"

The song resembles somehow the Franco Parisi's "The Power of the People" in the Chilean campaign.

However, I don't think Toni Cantó or other people who appears in TV such as former Cantabria premier Miguel Revilla, a certain judge Silva* and others have the Grillo potential.

*_{Elpidio Silva was previously in charge of the preliminary investigation in a case involving PP's Miguel Blesa, who was the president (executive chairman?) of Caja Madrid, one of the most important Spanish saving banks. Blesa was a accused of serious irregularities in a loan to the Group Marsans (tour operations, former owner of Aerolíneas Argentinas, collapsed in 2010) and the purchase by Caja Madrid of the City National Bank of Florida. Silva was challenged by the Blesa's defense and was replaced by another judge.}

I don't see a clear equivalent for the Baden Würtemberg Greens, but I think Movimiento Ciudadano (Citizen Movement) has chances to gather some disappointed voters. MC is the extension of Ciutadans (Citizens, C's), a Catalan party led by Albert Rivera. As I said in a previous post, Rivera has a constant presence in TV, appearing as a talk show guest or being interviewed in some programs. C's is not extremist, just ideologically ambiguous and almost indistinguishable from UPyD. It's more or less social-liberal with a strong focus on opposition to (peripheral) nationalism. Anti-independence demonstrations in Barcelona are only attended by PP and C's members, with some far-right guests (maybe unwanted) joining. Also, Ciutadans has a strong anti-corruption message and advocates for a 'democratic regeneration' in Spain. In the rest of the country, some miscellaneous independent personalities and groups have joined the MC, though the party's potential relies on Rivera's charisma (besides, he's young and good-looking). Right-wing voters dislike Díez for being a former PSOE member, but Rivera lacks of that disadvantage amongst them (allegedly, he was in PP's Youth). Last poll for the EP elections posted in the IE board gives MC a seat and it's possible that the surge of this party is halting UPyD's electoral growth. On the other hand, there's a long history with UPyD's leader Rosa Díez and Albert Rivera failing to meet up. Rosa Díez always rejected coalitions with Rivera's party (UPyD is weak in Catalonia, whereas C's was lacking of presence in the rest of Spain). UPyD and Díez have been always obsessed with having an homogeneous message and similar electoral brands throughout Spain. Rivera states that he tried hard to form a coalition, but Díez was unresponsive.

The new party made with former PP hardliners might have potential if they were led by someone with charisma. Ortega Lara, a former prison officer who was abducted by ETA for 532 days, is popular but lacks the makings and aptitudes to be a political leader. Also, PP voters were extremely loyal to their party in the past and, seemingly, many of them prefer going to abstention instead of voting for another party.

In the xenophobic far-right, perhaps Anglada and Platform for Catalonia have chances in the EP election (though I wouldn't give that for granted) but they have little to do in national politics. The fascist bunches (Democracia Nacional, Falange) are irrelevant.

Some peripheral nationalist forces (EHBildu in the Basque Country; ERC and CUP in Catalonia; AGE in Galicia) capitalize protest vote in their territories, as well C's in Catalonia on the anti-nationalist side.

[swl]

Conclusion: Citizens don't feel they from part of the decision making process. What people wants is that the political process be at their service and open discussion of public priorities.

The same analysis can be made in many other European countries, but citizens are reacting differently. In Greece they turn to both far-right and far-left parties, in France many of them turn to the Front National and in Italy to Beppe Grillo. The particularity of Spain is that the contestation started in the street with the "indignados" and is still very street and "action" oriented. I am looking forward to see what will happen in Spain, the protests in 2011 were quite promising.

[Velasco]

The particularity of Spain is that the contestation started in the street with the "indignados" and is still very street and "action" oriented. I am looking forward to see what will happen in Spain, the protests in 2011 were quite promising.

Yes (welcome to the forum, btw). Besides, the 15M movement (indignados) was clearly the predecessor and inspiration for Occupy Wall Street and similar movements in other countries (e.g. #YoSoy132 in Mexico). The indignados movement had many internal contradictions -obvious, given the heterogeneity of those who were taking part in it- and ended being diluted. Anyway, the ongoing protests in Spain owe much to the 15M.

On a second thought, I think the menace of the rooting of a xenophobic far-right in Spain, in the style of the Front National, might have diminished in the last times. On one hand in Catalonia, where PxC obtained some successes in local elections, everything is subordinated now to the debate on independence. On the other hand, the exit of thousands of foreign immigrants who found themselves unemployed, might have reduced tensions in some working-class towns with high proportion of foreign population-in Barcelona and Madrid peripheries, for example-. I'd like to see if the new hard-right split from PP (the so-called "VOX" Party) has some impact in the following polls.

[Velasco]

Bump.

Why do you have so great expectations on Pedro Sánchez? He's just been elected as party leader and it seems that socialists are not gaining traction at all.

He's young, charismatic, and not seen as a professional politician. He promises a lot of big things, including difficult ones (federalization of Spain for example). I think he's going to become very popular soon because he represents the change that so many want to see. These days I think that's enough to win in countries like Italy, Spain or Greece.

Like Renzi, if elected he will have to prove himself because many will see as a good communicator only.

A poll released a couple of days ago made me remember that quote above.

After the EP elections I promised myself not to trust pollsters anymore, but it seems that we have a trend. With the next year's local elections in mind, Rajoy is preparing a 'reform'. He spoke of a strange thing called 'democratic regeneration'; I didn't understand what he wanted to say.

It might be something like this:

http://www.repubblica.it/2006/c/sezioni/politica/versoelezioni38/caldporcata/caldporcata.html

[Zanas]

I was just coming to ask if we were not going to discuss the fact that a poll put Podemos one point behind PSOE 3 days ago. I can't see the image you posted above, Velasco, from where I post right now so it may be the same.

The Sigma Dos / El Mundo poll :

PP : 30.1
PSOE : 22.3
Podemos : 21.2
UPyD : 5.6
IU : 4.1

Even more important is the fact that half PSOE voters think Podemos can unthrone PSOE as left leader, against 40% that think otherwise. The public at large is split 43-42 on the subject.

68% of IU voters also want Podemos and IU to ally for next election, but knowing the radical left as I know it, this is unlikely to happen IMO.

Still, is it just a Pirate-style fad or is something real happening in Spain ?

[Velasco]

Yes, my pic was the Sigma Dos/El Mundo poll

I don't know what's going to happen in the next year's elections, but I doubt that Podemos is comparable with the Pirates. Podemos is still inarticulate at organisational level and some points in the platform need to be explained better, specially how are they going to implement some ambitious economic offers. Like the Pirates (and Grillo, to a certain extent), they work well in the social networks, but (unlike them) they have a solid left-wing ideological base. Keep in mind that the founding core of Podemos is made of political scientists, some philosophers and other academicians, plus some people expert at social fights (Marea Verde, for example). Iglesias and the main ideologists in Podemos (Monedero, Errejón, etc) often mention Gramsci. Nevertheless, the message conveyed by Pablo Iglesias is intentionally simplified, in order to connect with the broadest public possible. There's a clear communication strategy; Iglesias and others are skilled on that matter. He speaks -somewhat in a Grillo style- of La Casta, the political class which has ruined the country. He says that Podemos wants to change the rules of the game. In his view, there's not a left-right axis represented by PSOE and PP anymore; there exists a fundamental dictatorship-democracy axis. One side of the latter is represented by Brussels, the ECB, the IMF, builders that bribe corrupt politicians... The other side is represented by those who fight for social rights, the power of the people, human rights and decency.

As you can imagine, there is a lot of controversy around Podemos. I can link you a couple of articles in Spanish, defending and attacking them, with good argumentation.

In favour: ¿Cuadrar el círculo? El éxito electoral de Podemos by José Luis Villacañas.

http://blogs.elconfidencial.com/alma-corazon-vida/escuela-de-filosofia/2014-06-15/cuadrar-el-circulo-el-exito-de-podemos_146314/#

Against: La irresistible ascensión de P.I by Antonio Elorza*

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/07/09/opinion/1404895770_355103.html

_{*Antonio Elorza was a PCE member expelled by Carrillo in the early 80s. He co-wrote the canon textbook on the early years of the Communist Party of Spain (until 1936).}

As for IU, the tragedy for them is that they are being drowned by the tide, as the poll seems to suggest. The trend in the polls is consistent since the EP elections, and it looks like it's solid. Anyway, you are right; there's a great tradition of factionalism in the radical left. It won't be easy an alliance between Podemos and IU, despite many of the Podemos founding members were in IU years ago (or maybe because of it). In any case, it seems that Podemos is not going to run in the next local elections with the same brand everywhere. Partly because they fear of arrivistes (upstarters) joining their ranks, they want to build alliances with the left and the social movements on a local basis. They are going to support a list in Barcelona called Guanyem ("We Win"), topped by anti-eviction leader Ada Colau.

Everything here seems to be mutating too fast. At the very least, it's interesting.

[swl]

Does Podemos clearly reject any association with the other parties?

If the poll published above happens to be accurate, what would be more likely, a "grand coalition" PP-PSOE or a left-wing coalition?

[Velasco]

Does Podemos clearly reject any association with the other parties?

If the poll published above happens to be accurate, what would be more likely, a "grand coalition" PP-PSOE or a left-wing coalition?

Do you mean association with IU or a broader alliance including PSOE? On electoral alliances, it's possible (although not easy) some kind of coalition with IU at regional or national level. They call that 'confluence of the left' and officially it's supported by both parties, but they say such 'confluence' will be a slow process. PSOE is going to run alone, that's for sure. On post-election coalitions, it's hard to say. We have local and regional elections in May 2015 and parliamentary elections in November, unless Rajoy decides calling earlier (I think it's unlikely). First we'll have to see how alliances are forged in local and regional governments. Then (and that's not a minor issue), we need to know the composition of the next parliament.

The electoral system in Spain is PR (D'Hont), but the country is divided in 52 electoral districts and most of them are small (less than 7 seats on average). That favours PP, not enough to gain a majority with only 30% of the vote, but maybe enough to prevent a majority of the combined left. A likely result is a hung parliament. You can see how the Congress of Deputies could be with the results of the Celeste-Tel July survey (don't think that has a full accuracy, it's just estimated):

http://www.eldiario.es/politica/Podemos-consolida-tercera-fuerza_0_281722474.html

Majority is at 176 seats. PP gets 33.5% and 145/149; PSOE 23.1% and 89/92; Podemos 14.1% and 34/37; IU 5.1% and 12/15; UPyD 4.8% and 9/12...

PSOE, IU and Podemos don't reach a majority, even with the addition of the separatist left (ERC, EH Bildu) or the UPyD and Cs. This poll looks conservative in comaprison with El Mundo. I don't know how many seats can get PSOE at 22% and Podemos at 21%; they might be closer to a majority adding the IU, but I'm not sure if numbers will tally. OTOH, I won't set fire to myself for the accuracy of one poll or another. Podemos is over PSOE in raw vote intention, and even over PP in some polls...

Pedro Sánchez, the new PSOE leader, is in an uncomfortable situation. He's trying to put some distance between himself and PP and, at the same time, he's presenting himself as a rational reformer in opposition to Iglesias' 'populism' or 'unworkable proposals'. Some of Sánchez's ideas sound reasonable, the question is if people trust in him. By the moment, PSOE is still in a huge crisis of confidence. I think a 'Grand Coalition' presided by Rajoy is more likely than a left-wing coalition, but that might be suicidal for PSOE and socialists are aware of that.