Spain General Discussion

[morgieb]

How is Podemos polling first without obliterating the PSOE? Whowere Podemos supporters backing before?

Looks like Podemos have nabbed the votes of the minor left-wing parties.

[Velasco]

How is Podemos polling first without obliterating the PSOE? Whowere Podemos supporters backing before?

Looks like Podemos have nabbed the votes of the minor left-wing parties.

It's a complex question. Podemos is grabbing voters from IU and other minor left-wing parties, as well a good chunk of former PSOE voters, mobilising former abstainers in the left and even taking some voters from PP and UPyD (see graphs on "provenance of Podemos support" a couple of posts before). However, it seems that PSOE is showing some resilience and retains around 20% of the vote. Last polls are quite contradictory. There are results for every taste: some place PP ahead, others say Podemos would win and the last Metroscopia / El País poll shows PSOE in first place, Podemos second and PP third. It seems that pollsters are rather confused.

Also, there is the question of where centrist voters have gone. PP has lost the centre (corruption scandals and the abortion bill didn't help) and seemingly no party is reaping the rewards. According to the CIS October survey, 44% of those who declared having voted PP in 2011 say they have no intention to repeat. That 44% is distributed as you can see in the graph below: Abstention + blank vote above 20%, PSOE and Podemos 6% each, Ciudadanos 3.7% and UPyD 2.2%.



http://politikon.es/2014/11/12/donde-van-los-votos-del-pp-el-vacio-en-el-centro/

As a result of that void in the centre of the spectrum, the ideological profile of PP voters is drifting rightwards. In previous years until 2011, the plurality was on the centre and centre-right (5-6). The black line representing 2014 shows that 1/2 of PP's support is clearly right-wing (7-8).



Maybe PSOE resists because it's partly compensating loses to Podemos with some votes from the centre, or maybe it's because voters on the left and centre-left are comparatively more motivated. In any case, Pedro Sánchez is trying to play the card of "sane" reformism against the "groundbreaking" stances of Podemos. The "centrist" parties, UPyD and Cs, seem to be failing to catch moderate voters leaving PP.

Rajoy's hopes to regain support are placed in economic recovery. He assured yesterday in Mexico that Spain will grow more than 2% in 2015, despite predictions from international institutions are more pessimistic. Also, he can play the "fear factor" amongst moderates if Podemos is too high in the polls. However, the public sentiment on the situation of the country (economy, corruption scandals, the problem in Catalonia, and in general a systemic crisis) is far away from the governmental narrative.

[Velasco]

PP rams the abusive Citizen Safety Law through Congress, besides provisions on deportation of illegal immigrants. The entire opposition criticised the "gag law", because it's a "legal aberration, "an attack on civil liberties" and " a carte blanche to the police". On deportations, the EU Human Rights Commissioner said recently that "Spain is attempting to make what’s illegal, legal". According to a socialist MP, the law "is a return to a police state" and the government is "using the excuse of security" to "slash citizens".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/12/12/inenglish/1418379884_767333.html

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The laws provisions heavy fines in 45 cases without a court order, it's only required an administrative order by the Ministry of Interior. It creates four types of offences or infringements of the law. Very serious offences may result in fines between 30000 and 600000 Euros. The Spanish Huffington Post provides some practical examples:

- Organising a demonstration in front of the court of Palma de Mallorca in protest to the prosecutor's excessive softness with Princess Cristina may result in the maximum penalty (600K), in the case that the Ministry of Interior considers the administration of justice a "basic service to the community". Despite the prosecutor's attempts to hold  Cristina harmless, the judge deems king Felipe's sister a suspect or accused person in the judicial case faced by her husband Iñaki Urdangarín (Noós case).

- Protesting in front of the Congress: between 601 and 30000 Euros.

- Peaceful resistance (sit-ins and the like): between 601 and 30000 Euros.

- Trying to stop an eviction: between 601 and 30000 Euros. Recently a judge imposed a police agent who assaulted an anti-eviction protester a compensation of 480 Euros and two fines by an amount of 300.

- Projecting laser beams on pilots and drivers: very serious offence (until 600000 Euros).

- Filming policemen or taking photographs: between 601 and 30000 Euros. If you protest because policemen are striking people, you may fall in misconduct ("disrespect") and be fined (between 100 and 600 Euros).

- Possesion of hash or weed: between 601 and 30000 Euros.

- Unauthorized public spectacles: between 30001 and 600000 Euros.

- Intrusion in infrastructures or facilities (Greenpeace-style performances): between 601 and 30000 Euros.

http://www.huffingtonpost.es/2014/12/11/ley-mordaza-multas_n_6308020.html

Such a collection of disproportionate fines and sanctions, which the government calls humorously "a democratic advance" and "a guarantee of liberties", is hardly understandable. There's not a justification to curb people's freedom; there aren't violent protests and incidents caused by the social unrest which can be used as alibi, in order to protect frightened peaceful citizens. The authoritarian drive of the government could only be explained as a move to please PP's hardcore voters. As some columnist wrote, perhaps Rajoy thinks that the centre has "disappeared" (as said in the previous post, moderates seem to have joined the ranks of abstainers) and needs to rely in a reduced spectre of voters, appealing to "order" and "fear" (to Podemos) as well as "constitutional stagnation" and "inflexibility" towards the Catalan problem.

[Simfan34]

No lèse-majesté? Although that penalty for protesting against the Princess sounds close enough.

[MaxQue]

Are judges independent enough to be able to stuck down that nonsense?

[Velasco]

No lèse-majesté? Although that penalty for protesting against the Princess sounds close enough.

I doubt lése-majesté exists in our legal system. Democratic states contemplate offences of treason, but that's not applicable in this case. Besides, the hypothetical example was a protest against the prosecutor who is being too overprotective with Princess Cristina. By the way, the king's sister is no longer an 'official' member of the royal family and certainly Felipe is angry at her (corrupt) husband.

Are judges independent enough to be able to stuck down that nonsense?

Individual judges like Pablo Ruz or Julián Castro (the investigator in the scandal involving Cristina's husband) are zealously independent, but the organs of judicial government are appointed by political parties. Pablo Ruz is investigating corruption scandals involving PP (Bárcenas, Gürtel), but the Higher Judicial Council is about to replace him in March taking advantage of the fact that Ruz is a substitute judge.

Hopefully, this nonsense will be repealed after the next elections.