Spain General Discussion

[Velasco]

Great idea, Nanwe. I'll start with some controversy on socialists and Catalonia, just to make the thread more entertaining

Yesterday, Alfonso Guerra just proposed expelling PSC from PSOE and creating a new, clearly constitutionalist PSOE branch in Catalonia. That'd bring back many constitutionalists from Ciutadans.

With the due respect, Alfonso Guerra is somewhat old-fashioned and, like many others in his party, doesn't understand what's happening with Catalonia or doesn't want to. Sadly, even the younger Carme Chacón seems anchored in 80s stereotypes as thinking that the nationalist feelings in Catalonia are a bourgeois issue, towards which the popular classes feel nonchalance. A socialist split in Catalonia might end in a disaster. It might be the disappearance of what would remain of PSC, with the leaders of the Catalanist faction migrating to other parties. Montserrat Tura is increasingly near ERC, who knows where valuable young people like Rocío Martínez-Sampere or Laia Bonet might end. The Catalan branch of PSOE would be irreversibly an irrelevant party, virtually without presence out of Barcelona Metropolitan Region -where now it's weaker than ever-, dominated by a  handful of mayors, without cadres and lacking of a proper speech, indistinguishable from the populism of Ciutadans and PP's do nothing policy. Finally, it might be the irreversible disappearance of an extremely fragile third way to solve the Catalan question. Waving up the sacred Constitution won't persuade Catalans from their desire of having their referendum. If the battle in Catalonia is fought between its proper nationalism and the Spanish one, that part of Spain will go away one day or another.

PSOE is proposing a federal reform of the constitution but, unfortunately, the party is burdened by the fear of being unpopular in the rest of Spain and its own centralist elements. Voting in favour of UPyD's motion in the Parliament, which establishes of wily form that "the right to decide belongs all the Spanish People" -it's hard to explain to foreigners, it's like referenda in Scotland and Quebec had to be voted by all British and Canadian- was -in my opinion and even if it seems odd-, a round strategical mistake. Worse still, the fact that PSC deputies were voting against might end in a sanction. Discipline of vote is an aberration in cases like this and the lack of criteria take away credibility from PSOE's federalism and proposals of reform. At this point, what can offer Spain to Catalonia to stay?

[Velasco]

El Periódico poll is truly depressing (I don't like C's and ERC doesn't make me happy) and very interesting as well. A sample of the state of the public opinion in a society that is mutating very fast. Complete disintegration of the traditional parties. Catalonia is the first place where the Old Order is dying.

[Velasco]

With the due respect, Alfonso Guerra is somewhat old-fashioned and, like many others in his party, doesn't understand what's happening with Catalonia or doesn't want to.

Besides corrupt, but that doesn't mean he is right. What is happening in Catalonia is the result of years of CiU propaganda of "Espanya ons roba" and "Spaniards are lazy scum" and of Pujolist "Catalonia is special". The difference this time being that CiU has ignited it in a time when people are prone to radicalization and as a result, they have clearly lost the control of the situation. However, I'm certain that a) there isn't going to be a referendum and b) there isn't going to be any sort of independence.

Well, your reply is an example of what many people outside Catalonia thinks about what's going on. I'm not going to defend the traditional Catalan nationalism which CiU represents, but anyway. It's true that there's some arrogance in certain Catalans (though I don't think that's the general attitude) and, certainly, the "Espanya nos roba" slogan is pure demagoguery. However, it's a huge oversimplification claiming that nationalist propaganda is the origin of the problem. That "radicalization" is the result of multiple factors: social changes, evolution of the Catalan nationalism from reformist stances to sovereignism, a huge feeling among Catalans of all tendencies of being misunderstood and battered by Spain... Don't forget that in parallel with what you call "years of CiU propaganda", the Spanish right (PP and friendly media) has launched anti-Catalan campaigns in the rest of Spain. Also, the sentence of the (partisan) Constitutional Court on the Catalan Statute angered many people. Dissafection is the natural consequence.

Why do you take for granted that there isn't going to be a referendum nor Catalan independence? I don't have a crystal ball, but for sure if a massive portion of Catalan wants a referendum and Spain doesn't give it to them, resentment will grow. When one of the two in a couple wants to go, the marriage usally ends in divorce.

By the way, Alfonso Guerra is not the corrupt. It was his brother.

I don't see that as true. The PSC is already doomed. If you asked anyone how to say screwed in Spanish, they'd probably answer PSOE. But a more clearly centre-left constitutionalism would work to bring back voters from C's. So they might as well and try to survive until the economy gets better and Mas gets what he wants (moar money).

There is not third way. There is a need for a reform in the Spanish structure of the state to a functional federalism but what is not acceptable and it is not tolerable is to give in to the nationalists. Because when you play with cheaters, you always lose. And if the Generalitat is good at something, that is cheating. The reform of the Constitution needs to create a mechanism to impose fines on the CCAA that fail to comply with judicial decisions. Catalonia has gotten away with tons of illegal stuff because no one forces them to comply with legislation as basic as to defend the average Joe.

The so-called third way is akin to the Ibarretxe plan and it's pure and simple nonsense, just like the UK's position in the EU. They want the good but not the bad, well, they'll have to choose.

PSC may be doomed. Anyway, that center left "Constitutionalism" wouldn't suppose any difference with PP and the Rivera troupe in the eyes of center left Catalanists (note that it's not exactly the same that "nationalists", even when there's an overlap). A party like that will be marginal in Catalan politics. Of course, there's a need to reform the territorial structure in a functional way, but it won't work if you don't consider the regional identities (I mean Catalan and Basque, but not only). "When you play with cheeters" is another example of what is going wrong. If you want to keep the country united, you'll have to consider two facts:

a) Spain is diverse and there are national/regional identities inside her.
b) Peripheral nationalism exists and it's not possible to marginalize it. You are condemned to negotiate, perhaps a to a permanent negotiation.

The pretension of that difuse Third Way is looking for the solution of the sudoku. Supporters of Catalan independence and Spain's centralism deny that possibility. It goes in the interest of the most fervent partidaries of independence the failure of an alternative way. I don't understand that comparison with the Ibarretxe plan. Some well intentioned proposals may have flaws, but I don't see the connection between PSC and the former lehendakari, to give an example.

It might have been, but it's simply natural to uphold the law and a sign of how Soraya Rodriguex is taking the PSOE to the right.

The law is to be followed, especially the Constitution. If it needs to be changed, it has to, but until then, the law is the law. I know this position is sort of polemic in some circles, but I don't care.

That's right. You have to observe the law. Anyway, that's not the point of the UPyD motion in the Congress. In fact, you don't need to approve a text that repeats what Spain's Constitution says on national sovereignty. That motion was simply a nationalist proclaim and Rubalcaba ceded before Guerra, Chaves and other PSOE "constitutionalists". It wasn't Soraya.

Btw, don't worry if we have different opinions on this and other issues.

[Velasco]

even if they feel that way (which ofc is what counts), aren't misunderstood or ignored or anything. That's mostly empty talk.

It's pretty obvious when you talk with Catalans or when you go there. It's not empty talk at all. Many Spaniards know nothing about how Catalans are and judge them on stereotypes: "Catalans are stingy", "Catalans are cadging" (when conversation is about Catalan demands). There's a big incomprehension and this factor is arguably in the origin of the problem. Furthermore, even when claims like "Spain is stealing us" are demagogic, there's a grain of truth in them as regional financing is unfavourable to Catalonia.

Well, I'm of the opinion that CiU is using the referendum as a tool. It'd be best for CiU to be denied the referendum as to still have it as a tool for future years about how Spain was evil and didn't let it happen. I know that a large part of the people want it, but keep in mind that most Spaniards have a centralist mentality, that's a) and b) that the majority of the political class is pretty much self-absorbed.

Why do I assess it this way? CiU seems to be on the break of dissolving due to internal differences between Duran i Lleida (Unió) and Mas (CDC), the PP is clearly but slowly moving towards finding a common position with Mas and he has also toned down his rhetoric and even has started to dismiss the issue of the referendum.

Besides, they won't go to a referendum unless they would be certain that their most favoured result happens, whether it is losing by a large margin or winning by a large margin. Right now, iirc, the majority of people polled have only become more souveranist recently and are considerably less so if Catalonia were to leave the EU (which is what would happen if they left Spain). I am pretty sure that while support for the referendum might remain high in the future, support for independence is going to go down.

Even if Mas wanted to go back, the pressure of Catalan society might force him to go ahead. Nowadays CiU governs in minority with ERC confidence and supply. Every time Artur Mas insinuates a delay in the common sovereignist agenda, ERC comes behind to make clear that the calendar is non negotiable. Apparently there were contacts between Rajoy and Mas under the table. By the moment, nothing has changed. PP and CDC maintain their respective nationalist stances, the first under the "constitutionalist" camouflage. The collision course is far away from being stopped. As for Durán, if Mas is in a weak position, it's still worse for the UDC leader. Durán has the support of some businessmen, but he's very unpopular and CDC militancy hates him for being a traitor. Furthermore, if CiU breaks down, it will be ERC who is going to gather the pieces together. Polls say they might be the major partners in a future nationalist government.

I'd like to think that letting things go their course, the "independence soufflé" will go down again. However, that theory has been denied by reality several times. Remember the last Diada: that impressive human chain across Catalonia.

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That assertion has been denied by Bárcenas, Francisco Camps, Jaume Matas, the Duke of Palma (the infamous Urdangarín) and some other examples. Not to mention Jesús Gil and Marbella. Guerra's brother and the good Roldán turn pale in comparison. The several corruption scandals in the González era lack of the magnitude of the Gürtel and Bárcenas cases. Corruption in Costa del Sol, Valencia and other places was a product of the real estate bubble, which started by 1998, under the Aznar administration.

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Ah, the two Sorayas ... But the news that you linked mentions Susana Díaz, the woman that replaced Griñán as Andalusian PM. Notice that Guerra and Chaves are from Andalusia, the main power base for PSOE. I've read there this sentence by some socialist deputies: " How is it possible that that we could think of abstaining in an offer that the only thing that it does is to defend the Constitution?" I think many socialists have fallen in the rhetoric trap of Rosa Díez. UPyD leader stated that she didn't want to hurt PSOE. I can't believe in her innocence. Everybody in Catalonia understands this as a proclaim of Spanish nationalism. For me it's troublesome, to say the least.

[Velasco]

One problem with your assessment, I'd think, is that you are identifying Catalonia as a victim that needs to be appeased. But, I think that here there is not victim, and no appeasement, what is needed is a radical change in Spain, and Catalonia is a part of Spain, one that finally and at least for the next 20 years or so can placate the constantly re-emerging identity debate. I need to write down a series of proposals I have in my head for said restructuring, but that takes time.

On a different topic, I have decided to restart my idea for the whole Spain including Portugal thing once again, but this time more professionally, so I'd love some help.

Absolutely not. I don't think Catalans are victims. However, they have been badly treated by some in the rest of Spain. What most of them reclaim is more respect and understanding. Even our hard right Thatcherite Esperanza Aguirre cynically admits that we need to take a more charitable view of Catalan people. I can't imagine greater hypocrisy. Besides the nation's main joker, Cristóbal Montoro, states that we need to be "tactful" on the Catalan question. At least Rosa Díez is more honest expressing her views, such as peripheral nationalists are "cheaters" and attempts of approaching stances with them are "appeasement". I don't believe in the moral superiority of Spain's nationalism/constitutionalism. As I said above, it will never be possible a change of the territorial structure without taking into account certain singularities of some parts of Spain. What UPyD is proposing on the subject is basically a complete uniformity. It won't work in a country heterogeneous in nature. It will have to be some asymmetry. Some regions will never accept anything by imposition or a cut in their autonomy and competences.

Can you give details of your project about Spain and Portugal?

[Velasco]

Alright, Nanwe.

Changing topic. Aznar publishes his memories. He tells that he entrusted CNI (Spain's intelligence agency) a report on the 2004 Madrid train bombings, which wasn't conclusive on the responsibility for the terrorist attack. Basically, CNI's director Jorge Dezcallar wrote that Spanish intelligence was clueless and didn't detect signals of the authorship. Given that ETA terrorist group had plenty of infiltrated agents, it would have been strange that CNI had not could detect anything from that side. By that time Aznar and his Interior minister, Ángel Acebes, sustained that ETA was behind the massacre. Later on, once Zapatero was in office, a media campaign was launched to question the judicial investigation. About Zapatero's investiture speech says the following:  "Investiture. Zapatero's speech in a Zapatero's tone of which already one sees the bottom: dialog, more dialog, only dialog, opposite to my omnipotence and authoritarianism". Opening Pandora's box:  " He opens all the problems without closing any: constitutional reform, reform of the statutes, antiterrorist setback. Clear attitude of trying to isolate the PP: all against the PP. About economy, he doesn't speak; homosexual marriage, equality, etc. I overturn in foreign policy. The retreat of the troops in Iraq is not mentioned ". On Zapatero's talante (good mood, liberal-minded): it's a "new silliness" of the progressive mentality of the political correctness. I adore this man

[Velasco]

Catalonia again. Interesting poll in El País today.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2013/11/02/catalunya/1383418112_808082.html

31% wants independence; 17% wants the statu quo (current autonomic state with the same competences); 40% wants the "third way" (whatever it means) and more devolution.

*The "third way" has support among moderate catalanist voters, but it has different meanings. PSC identifies it with a federal reform of the Constitution, whereas moderates in CiU favour a confederation (more or less, the Durán i Lleida thesis). According to the poll, it has a great support among PSC (65%) and ICV (44%) voters and among a sizable portion among Cs (39%), CiU (36%) and PP's (31%). Only 18% among ERC voters.

El País asserts in its editorial: "the third way goes forward".

If the referendum question is "yes" or no" to independence, secession wins 46%/42%. In the assumption that independence supposes that Catalonia will be out of the EU 48 % would vote against.

ERC and CDC support a referendum including only the "yes" and "no" options. However, there's controversy on the inclusion of a third option, which create tension inside the CiU coalition. PP is confident that these divisions will abort the sovereignist process, but CiU warns that this benefits ERC and it will be more difficult for the Spanish government to negotiate with a Catalan administration presided by Oriol Junqueras.

Vote intention:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/01/media/1383329614_146328.html

Catalan elections: ERC 23.2% (37 seats); CiU 19.4% (32); C's 15.3% (21); ICV-EUiA 10.5% (14); PSC 8.4% (13); PP 7.5% (12); CUP 4.9% (6).

General elections: CiU 21.5% (14 seats); PSC 17.8% (9); ERC 16.5% ( 8 ); PP 15.5% (9); ICV-EUiA 12.1% (5); C's 6.4% (2).

(I think there's a thread somewhere about the last socialist race between Rubalcaba and Chacón).

[Velasco]

Sadly, corruption scandals rarely affected elections. Francisco Camps in Valencia is a clear example. Nowadays crisis makes corruption more intolerable. PP support is declining in the polls, but its voters mainly go to abstention instead of to other parties.

As for the Rural Employment plan (PER) in Andalusia, such claims of clientelisc practices are truly old. Furthermore, they are irritating for some Andalusians, depicted by certain media in Madrid as brainless subsidy collectors. PER was designed to relieve the situation of the laborers in the Andalusian countryside. They are thousands of persons who the half of the year are employed by several landowners in the harvest time. Often they move to other regions or even to France. The other half of the year they don't have employment. You have at least three options: you can withdraw the subsidy from the laborers and they will starve, you can maintain it in order that they survive or you must collectivize the land

Also, the ERE scandal is sickening, but it's confined to Andalusia. Nothing to do with the colossal magnitude of the Bárcenas/Gürtel scandals, which affect PP national structure. If I have to weigh corruption in both parties, it's clear which one is the lesser evil.

[Velasco]

Jiménez Losantos is very hard right and a Spanish nationalist. César Vidal and Pio Moa are revisionist pseudo-historians (neo Francoist). All of them write in the 'liberal' Libertad Digital . Losantos and Moa were in the far left when they were young, the first was Maoist and the second was in the GRAPO terrorist band. Nowadays they represent in the media the far right and they support PP hard liners such as Mayor Oreja, María San Gil or Esperanza Aguirre.

On a side note, Rosa Díez was acclaimed in the UPyD convention, just finished. "(Rosa) Díez boasted today without half-tones of the voting in the Congress of Deputies last Tuesday that divided PSC and PSC on the right to decide of Catalonia. 'This group of five deputies has taken from the lapel to both principal parties and has achieved that 286 deputies say that the unity of the nation is indissoluble', she cried out". Actually Rubalcaba was thinking to abstain in the voting of the UPyD motion until hours before it was taking place, but he received pressures and changed of opinion in the last moment, as indicates Iñaki Gabilondo. PSC, except Carme Chacón, kept faithful to the previous agreement and abstained. It was PSOE who broke, not the hapless catalan socialists. A victory for Díez, undoubtedly, and a sample of Rubalcaba's weakness not to resist the pressures of outstanding members of his party. Cowardice.

PSOE is going to hold a political conference next weekend, where the Catalan question will be carefully avoided. On July PSOE had a meeting in Granada in which it was approved its proposal of a federal constitutional reform, not without tension between Catalan socialists and other regional leaders. On Constitutional reform Ramón Jáuregui states: "The 2011 defeat demands examination and rectification". "In addition, the world has changed, the left  needs to check its parameters and the problems of the Spanish society are not also those who formed the socialdemocratic projects in the last 35 years. All of that forces PSOE to lead a reformist process in Spain, something similar to what Felipe Gonzalez proposed in 1982". They will be examined new proposals on fiscal and economic policies ( among others, a new tax on wealth, suppression of some tax exemptions and taxes for the banks), 'democratic regeneration' (semi-opened lists, referenda by citizens' initiative...), etcetera. Former IU members -some linked to Gaspar Llamazares- and ex-super judge Baltasar Garzón will take part actively in the conference. They wrote a manifesto or open letter calling for a regeneration in the left. A paragraph as sample:

"Our goal is the defeat of the right, that is taking advantage of the crisis to push to unemployment and marginalization to wide sectors of the society, specially the the most fragile. The young, women, the older than forty five years, as well retired and pensioners, are suffering with cruelty the devastation of the Rajoy government. Together to this conscious deterioration of the social advances, the Executive has left in the ditches of oblivion the victims of the dictatorship and avoids the recovery of our memory, key element for the reunion with our dignity as people. While, the same government protects the interests of the powerful, relying ideologically on the most conservative sectors of the society. Now is urgent and indispensable to revert the destruction of rights that the People's Party is executing across the cuts in wages and benefits, education, health, social services, equality, abortion, etc. To fulfill this goal we all need, with independence of our past of successes and shared mistakes"

http://ep00.epimg.net/descargables/2013/11/02/1e9e88d56cf41e7658c846f9eebec660.pdf

[Velasco]

Regardless what you think about super judge Garzón, he was the object of a disgusting vengeance by his peers, plenty of resentment, partisanship and corporate spirit. Alaya, for her part, has a curious sense of political opportunity and she's not better than Garzón in the formal aspects of preliminary investigations. Among mediatic judges, I give more credit to Ruz in what regards working quietly. 

Pedro J is a good writer when he wants, indeed. However, I suspect he's forgetting intentionally some differences between Zapatero and Rajoy. Some measures the latter is adopting, in order to dismantle public education and the National Health System, have an obvious ideological motivation. Zapatero had never gone so far. And it's true, often PP and PSOE forget what both promise before elections.

[Velasco]

I didn't study laws and I can't say if phone tapping was correct from a legal point of view. If I remember well, the Public Prosecutor's Office said that it was. Anyway, I suspect the main problem with the super judge were his political stances and the overwhelming conservatism of our judiciary. For Pedro J and right-wing media Garzón was a hero when he investigated GAL, but rather annoying when he sought for Pinochet's extradition or prosecuted PP's corruption in Valencia and Madrid. Double standard, as usual.

The whole "they are dismantling education" is also used in the right to claim that the PSOE wants to make children dumber so they vote PSOE (oh boy, how many times have I heard that one). The new law is probably never going to be applied and in my opinion it introduces some interesting factors and some bad ones, but I am of the opinion that a reform should be done to move away from comprehensive education and into a more divided education system (à la Germany or NL).

As to the education, while cuts are being considerable, I don't think they are trying to dismantle it. That's something really unfair to say. Even from a purely malicious perspective as to their actions, they'd never dismantle a system that benefits one of their core voters: old people.

PSOE and PP were on the edge of reaching an agreement on education policies when Ángel Gabilondo was the minister. PP chose to break negotiations for electioneering reasons (and many suspect because of its contra-reformist agenda). Everybody, even from subsidized private schools ("escuelas concertadas") criticize the cruelty of Wert's proposals on final examinations. Not to mention heavy rises in tuition fees and in the ratio of pupils per classroom and ideological measures such as the reintroduction of religion in the curriculum, attacks on Catalan as the vehicle language in education (in spite of the right's claims, it works well and people there is overwhelmingly bilingual, but Wert wants to "hispanicize" everybody) and public funds for schools that segregate by sex. PP's policies always tend to increase subsidies for private schools, withdrawing funds from the public.

I've read little on Wert's projects for professional training and more about his idea of "educational routings". Some people think that a 13 year old kid is too young to choose his (her) vital project. A system that doesn't allow you to change your route may be unfair. In Germany professional training works pretty well and many would want to import some elements of the system. However, its main disadvantage is that it doesn't favour social mobility, because people is professionally orientated from early dates. Anyway, educational projects need funds, political agreement and dialog with fathers, teachers and all the educational community. It's impossible to argue in favour of Wert's ability to negotiate, disposal to dialog or even emotional intelligence. Funds are nonexistent.

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You don't need the Madrid 'experiment' to see what happens. 'Experimental' hospitals with private management failed miserably in Valencia (search for 'Alzira model'). Hospitals have losses, financed by taxpayers. Also, experiments are rather silly when you have a system that works. The clever thing is maintaining the model and correcting the flaws. Spain is the OECD country with the lowest health spending and still our health system is reasonably -and sometimes remarkably- good. But our government and conservatives talk about "inefficiency". Unless they are considering how efficiently Thatcher destroyed the British NHS or the money is wasted in Valencia. It must be a reflex action. Many in PP dream with Chile.

[Velasco]

Phone tapping is allowed provided that you have authorization and you have clear proof as to why you need it.

Funny thing, I don't see as bad having a conservative judiciary. It's natural they are closed class, one that to enter requires a large time of study, something that not everyone can afford and that even if you can, judges tend to have a lofty living, so it's natural that judges tend to be to the right.

As someone who would't mind a harsher judicial system and strict adherence to the law's wording, I actually don't mind it. But if it gets in the way of judicial autonomy and independence, then it's a problem.

I understand the reasons why most of the judges tend to be conservative. Anyway,
plurality is preferable and judges have the duty of being impartial and independent. This is not the case in our judicial system. As for Garzón, even if he committed an irregularity (which is debatable for some), his peers went further and sentenced that he committed prevarication (perversion of the course of justice). This is the biggest dishonour for a judge. Garzón was investigating the Gürtel case, which affected PP, and it was widely known that many in the judiciary (and outside) hated the controversial super judge. Garzón was previously accused of the same fault by a fascist organization called Manos Limpias because of his investigations on Franco's crimes. Certain judge Varela was very excited with the case and even gave advice to the plaintiffs. In parallel, a jury absolved Francisco Camps in a court in Valencia presided by a friend of the former regional PM. Many people felt puzzled, given the evidences against the accused. With actions like those, it's hard to defend the reputation of our judicial system.

Judge Castro seized duke and duchess of Palma's mansion in Barcelona. The duchess is Princess Cristina de Borbón, the daughter of king Juan Carlos. The duke, Iñaki Urdangarín is involved in a corruption scandal known as Nóos case. Cristina's husband is accused of having siphoned off millions of euros of public funds. The case affects regional governments in Valencia and the Balearic Islands.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/04/inenglish/1383575370_674513.html

Did you read that the Ministry of Education withdrew scholarships for most of the students in the Erasmus exchange programme?

[Velasco]

In the direct vote figure, PP is only ahead among the older than 65. In some age groups PP is coming third behind IU. Of course that's not conclusive, because it's just declared vote and people answering "doesn't know yet" wins in that category.

[Velasco]

The PP is probably the most corrupt and evil political party in Europe right now.

This is a hyperbole, isn't it? We have plenty of evil right-wing parties in Europe and corruption scandals in other countries.

I really don't think PP is going to win the next GE. PSOE will recover after this "Political Conference" for sure.

I don't want to cool your enthusiasm, but the Socialists have a long way to go and not all the signs from the political conference are positive.

[Velasco]

They could start by thinking about how they might tackle (or at least ameliorate) systemic social problems next time they're in power, rather than waste their time on useless gesture politics.

Well, that's a lesson that could be taken on board by just about every social democratic party in Europe, no?

Pretty much. However, in Spain the need of tackling the real issues is much more pressing.

As a result, traditionally the PSOE has always pandered to the social liberal franquista sociologicamente (outdated expression, but you know what I mean?) urban middle class that is, eminently centrist (both in a modern and a UCD meaning) which basically means the PSOE can never shift too much to the left as they still need these voters to win.

IF they did shift considerably to the left, the PSOE would abandon its pretensions of being a big tent for all Spaniards, which, from my own personal understanding of democracy, would be a good thing by making the PSOE a representative exclusively of the centre-left. But that would reduce their voters share to 20-25% while leaving a huge space in the middle for liberal-centrist voters to adhere to the PP (à la '96 or '00) or the creation of a new centrist party in the middle (which I'm not altogether sure UPyD could fill, as it's more of a anti-nationalist centre-left party than an actual centrist party).

Isn't there a contradiction between "social liberal" and "sociologically Francoist"? I didn't understand that part very well. I agree partially on your appreciation on PSOE moving too leftwards. However, Spanish socialists are not trying to become in a carbon copy of our United Left, in any case they are making an attempt to recover some forgotten principles of reformist socialdemocracy.

The political conference is starting badly trying to avoid the debate on PSOE's federal proposal. As Antonio Elorza says in the article that I'll link below, it seems that socialists are proposing hundreds of inarticulate measures without analyzing the genesis of problems nor confronting reality. It's not that the other opposition parties (IU and UPyD) give the impression of being credible alternatives right now, they seem to be expecting to pick up some of the shipwreck remains.

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2013/11/08/actualidad/1383935225_190255.html

As for UPyD, aside socially liberal stances, I'd say the party is drifting towards center right, but it's hard to know what's UPYD social agenda right now. Polls doesn't indicate that many disillusioned PP voters are joining Rosa Díez. Die hard conservatives may like confrontation with peripheral nationalism, but not other proposals, so they don't join UPyD. Perhaps those centrist voters which used to oscillate between PP and PSOE are not enthusiastically convinced by any political option. Besides, the middle class in Spain is diminishing with the crisis. 

[Velasco]

I forgot this. Celeste-Tell poll:

PP 31.8%; PSOE 28.2%; IU 13.3%; UPyD 7.9%; ERC 2.4%; CiU 2.3%; Amaiur 1.7%; Equo 1.7%; EAJ-PNV 1.4%; Ciutadans 1.4%; Compromís 1.2%.

Turnout (estimated) 55.1%.

http://www.celeste-tel.es/images/Barometroelectoralsocialnoviembre2013.pdf

[Velasco]

PSOE has always excelled at speaking red and then acting like a centrist. In 1986 and especially '89 (y dale con los 80), the party talked in terms of socializing the economy and expanding the welfare state and their economic policy, however was largely to cut down labour costs (not a bad thing, but just pointing out the divergence) and to drive down inflation though a tight fiscal policy.

People already know that PSOE is a moderate party. Socialists try desperately to connect again with their traditional voter base and they need to be credible again as a center left alternative to PP's "we must do this because there's no alternative". In the 80s socialists actually expanded welfare state and one of the best ministers in the González cabinets, Ernest Lluch, built our national healthcare system. Lluch was one of the few politicians that I can define as a Freedom Fighter in the last 35 years and was killed by ETA.

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It's not only a question of voters giving them a chance. Neither IU nor UPyD are connected with reality. Especially the latter is obsessed with issues with no relation with our desperate social and economic situation. The real Spain is the one that portraits the Cáritas reports on the increasing poverty. I've just googled "pobreza en España" and the first result is a news dated 19 hours ago: 2.5 million of children suffer malnutrition. Many families lack of money to feed adequately their children, whom eat their main food of the day in the school dining halls. Education budget is suffering severe cuts... Actually, the political debate is often focused in trivialities.

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C's is basically a populist party and its message is simple and direct, back to the bone. UPyD is somewhat populist as well (Toni Cantó), but in a lesser degree if compared with Rivera's troupe. I feel a deep distrust towards people like Albert Rivera and rumours on his past affiliation are not the main reason, though they might be symptomatic.

[Velasco]

Rubalcaba: "PSOE is back".

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/11/10/inenglish/1384107424_772356.html

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Also, Rubalcaba stated that socialists must be present in the streets, in solidarity with the people demonstrating against the government and "defending what we set in motion". On the Catalonia's independence drive, he advocated for "unity and diversity" and for the need of rebuilding territorial relations with "mutual respect and affection".

On primary elections to elect the a candidate to run in the 2015 election, Rubalcaba stated (ironically) that they'll hold them "before PP, in any case". Primaries are not taking into account in PP's statutes. The potential candidates are:

- Carme Chacón: PSC member, former minister of defense, narrowly defeated in the race for the party's leadership by Rubalcaba in the 2012 convention. She's temporally retired in Miami, where she's teaching in Miami Dade College.

- Patxi López: former Basque regional premier (lehendakari), close ally of Rubalcaba and potential candidate of the party's establishment. 

- Eduardo Madina: MP for Bizkaia, in the Basque Country. He's the youngest in this group and  lacks governmental experience, which may be an advantage or disadvantage depending on circumstances. He's very cautious and perhaps overburdened with the hopes that some people put on him. At the moment he lacks the support of party bosses.

-Emiliano García-Page: mayor of Toledo and rival of PP's general secretary, Dolores de Cospedal, in Castilla-La Mancha. The most moderate and centrist, in the style of José Bono. He desires a "left-oriented" party but "permeable to other sensitivities."

Susana Díaz, the new Andalusian premier, is gaining relevance within the party. She made an emotional speech at the opening of the political conference, receiving a great ovation among delegates. "This conference has to wake illusion up and open the door for hope. We come with the responsibility of recovering the credibility of the people and of stopping the sadness that is flooding this country. And to prevent the right from finishing with the project of thousands of Spaniards in the next years." The concurrence especially liked this: "We took decisions that removed us from our social base and we themselves were not recognizing ourselves. There are gaps that we haven't been capable of blocking up. We still have not been capable of constructing this transformation process that Spain needs."

[Velasco]

Finally, there will be two questions for the Catalan referendum (and a date):

http://elpais.com/elpais/2013/12/12/inenglish/1386856018_634934.html

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However, the Spain's government is ill-disposed:

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And a PP spokesman in Catalonia states, following the party line:

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Regarding the questions:

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In the last paragraph, Junqueras refers to the first proposed question ("Do you want Catalonia to be a state?"), admitting that if that question gets a majority of affirmative votes but the second question ( "Do you want Catalonia to be an independent state?") fails, "independence movement in Catalonia will not have won". Joan Herrera, leader of ICV-EUiA, stated that the first question appeals as well to federalists contrary to independence and PSC stances. "The question allows to add all those that we do not want to continue like till now", has said Herrera.

[Velasco]

I hate monologues, but let's update this thing.

According to El Pais the controversial abortion reform is eroding voting support for PP. A Metroscopia survey (released on Jan 12) indicates that PSOE would win by a 1.5% margin if elections were held today.

The poll shows a strong disapproval of the reform sponsored by Justice Minister Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón. On the following questions and asserts, interviewees replied as follows:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/11/media/1389453933_455931.html

-Should political parties allow deputies to vote according with their conscience when the bill is put before the Congress?: 91% agrees; 6% disagrees.

-Has every pregnant woman right to decide if to continue or not with her pregnancy?: 86% agrees; 11% disagrees.

-Must fetus malformation be maintained as motive to abort legally?: 84% agrees; 10% disagrees.

-This reform will increase clandestine abortions in conditions of insecurity: 78& agrees; 16% disagrees.

-This reform wasn't necessary: 78% agrees; 18% disagrees.

-In the present, there's not a social demand that justifies this reform: 75% agrees; 16% disagrees.

-This reform has been promoted in order to please Catholic Church hardliners: 75% agrees; 17% disagrees.

The conclusion that El País extracts of this poll is:

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However, the Celeste-Tel January survey shows PP ahead by a 2.3% margin:



El Mundo (PP-friendly newspaper, whereas El País is more PSOE-friendly) went further in its last poll (Sigma-Dos, January), with PP leading by 8.9%.



I tend to think that Celeste-Tel might be more accurate or less skewed, but who knows.

-On a side note, Elena Valenciano (Rubalcaba's deputy general secretary) might be running as PSOE candidate in the next European elections. Socialists are weighing her candidacy in order to make a strong list to challenge the ruling Popular Party. PSOE hopes that elections will be the beginning of a favourable cycle, followed by regional, local elections and the 2015 general election. If Valenciano runs, she might share the top of the list with MEP (and former Justice Minister) Juan Fernando López Aguilar, who ran in 2009 as PSOE's top candidate.

PP might place Miguel Arias Cañete, currently Minister of Agriculture.

[Velasco]

All is hanging in the air, then. My impression is that López Aguilar might be convenient candidate, because he's rather popular and even somewhat charismatic. Besides, many people in PSOE might be thinking that he's better in exile. Not to mention the PSOE's current leadership in the Canaries; the further he is, the better for them

I'm not sure if placing a hardliner like Mayor Oreja on the top is a good idea. Arias Cañete is much less controversial and he's an expert on EU issues. Did your contact give you more inputs? I live too far from Madrid

[Velasco]

Do you think there's much chance of IU getting close to their current poll ratings in an actual election?

Hard to say. Social unrest favours IU but, on the other hand, speculations on the left-wing coalition surpassing PSOE sound rather fantastic. Neither PSOE is PASOK nor IU is Syriza -besides, IU is lacking of a charismatic leader like Tsipras-. I think we must wait until the European elections to see if IU is able to fulfill the expectations. My personal theory is that the border between a good and a mediocre result is the 1994 election. Then IU got 13.4% of the vote with a 59.1% turnout (roughly 2.5 million of votes).

http://www.historiaelectoral.com/eu1994.html

On Saturday we'll know when the primaries will happen, not even Tomás Gómez (who was in my town today, and I had the opportunity to talk to him: http://www.telemadrid.es/noticias/madrid/noticia/gomez-denuncia-la-injusta-subida-de-impuestos-en-san-sebastian-de-los-reyes I'm the guy wearing glasses behind him) knows, but most people seem to think they'll take place by November.

I agree with you on López Aguilar, some people may want him in Brussels, there he ain't be 'dangerous'. But hey, maybe if he wins by +5 points (unlikely, I know) the media will begin talking about him as a potential candidate... And I have the feeling that he actually wouldn't mind running (quite the opposite), what do you think, Dani?

Arias Cañete clearly wants to be something in the EU Commission, but maybe Rajoy wants him to run in Andalusia or to have him remain Minister, as he's one of the least-unpopular, and Rajoy needs some ministers to burn after having burnt Gallardón But I trust my contact and he thinks Mayor Oreja is Rajoy's choice right now. I, like you, believe putting a hard-liner (I have no problems calling him a fascist, lepenist or whatever they call them now) will backfire just as I think the Abortion Law did. Not only because the far-right will vote PP no matter what if there isn't a viable choice from the right, but because PP needs the centre to win again.

I saw your fringe and your glasses

As you say, it looks unlikely an outright socialist victory in the European elections. Perhaps if he gets a decent result -with 'decent' I mean PSOE tied or close to PP- he could eventually return to a major role in national politics. I don't see him as a candidate in the next primaries, but obviously he's not a featherweight. With Chacón or Madina winning the socialist primaries, he might get a major role. If an 'establishment' candidate wins the nomination to run in 2015, well... his stay in Brussels could be longer  This is speculative, I'm not into PSOE intrigues

I don't think that new party in the hard-right with Abascal, Vidal-Quadras and the other loonies has chances to go anywhere. The openly fascist "España en Marcha" even less. However, there's unrest amongst PP's hardliners and the Aguirre's fan club. An European election is the perfect occasion to collect protest votes. Nobody in this country knows which are Rajoy's intentions on anything, despite he always states that he likes to be predictable. For sure Rajoy and PP will take the next election seriously. What's quoted below makes sense and is somewhat worrying:

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I guess you mean that "Platform for Liberty", the national extension of the far-right Plataforma per Catalunya (PxC). If Le Pen endorses the Anglada bunch and even some member of the Panzer family consents to make a visit... Hell, it might be disgusting and you could expect some pulling effect.

The good thing is that the hard and the far right are splitted in the several bunches you mentioned. Also, Movimiento Ciudadano -which is not an extremist party, but a populist one- can get votes from some PP hardliners, because of Albert Rivera's popularity (good looking appearances in TV, anti-Catalan independentism) amongst these voters. Anyway, abstention is the main enemy of the Popular Party.

[Velasco]

Some people point that Spain is not only under an economic crisis; there's also a moral, political and territorial crisis. The political parties have never had such a low level of approval:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/17/inenglish/1389980385_808918.html

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According to Josep Ramoneda's analysis, the main causes of the disengagement of political parties -which are reluctant to acknowledge their big failure- from society are:

- Lack of empathy with the people. The crisis is only handled from a purely technocratic angle; unemployment figures are just statistics, not a sum of personal tragedies.

- The political class lives isolated in a glass bubble and is passive facing corruption, endogamic and corporatist. Parties encourage blind loyalty from their parliamentarians and membership; parliamentarian debates are restricted and actual political discussion discouraged.

- Promiscuity between money and politics. According to this analysis, politicians surrounded by bankers and businessmen, far from inspiring confidence, breed doubts among the people. For whom are they governing? How many debts have them to pay?

-Inefficiency of the parties in fulfilling: a) political representation b) selection of suitable people to hold the offices.

Conclusion: Citizens don't feel they from part of the decision making process. What people wants is that the political process be at their service and open discussion of public priorities.

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Regarding to that protest in Burgos -an old town in Castile, traditionalist, conservative and ruled by PP- the right wing press was crying out against the protesters, saying they were PSOE or IU puppets. That press is highly disconnected from reality; the influence of these parties in any type of civil movement tends to be zero. Of course, PSOE and IU try to add themselves to civil movements, such as those in defense of public healthcare and education (the so-called "green tide"), but they didn't generate them.

[Velasco]

The questions are interesting, but I don't have a crystal ball

I think the Grillo movement is too sui generis to be extrapolable to other countries. To begin with, we would need a media figure like Beppe Grillo, capable to connect with people's dissatisfaction exclaiming: "Vafanculo!!!" We have some good comedians in the TV, but luckily they are not touched by partisan politics. Anyway, there's a potential for populism and we have some examples of media celebrities entering into politics. For example, actor Toni Cantó ran for UPYD in the Valencia district and won a seat. He earned popularity with his campaign song, the Toni Cantó Rap.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0s5SyET_Mw

The lyrics is something like this: "Clash, squandering, lies, corruption, unemployment, crisis, inept leaders, parties that belong to the past, (peripheral) nationalism that divide" ... In opposition, the chorus proclaims: "We are the world because we form it/ the spine and the heart of something ... We are UPyD"

The song resembles somehow the Franco Parisi's "The Power of the People" in the Chilean campaign.

However, I don't think Toni Cantó or other people who appears in TV such as former Cantabria premier Miguel Revilla, a certain judge Silva* and others have the Grillo potential.

*_{Elpidio Silva was previously in charge of the preliminary investigation in a case involving PP's Miguel Blesa, who was the president (executive chairman?) of Caja Madrid, one of the most important Spanish saving banks. Blesa was a accused of serious irregularities in a loan to the Group Marsans (tour operations, former owner of Aerolíneas Argentinas, collapsed in 2010) and the purchase by Caja Madrid of the City National Bank of Florida. Silva was challenged by the Blesa's defense and was replaced by another judge.}

I don't see a clear equivalent for the Baden Würtemberg Greens, but I think Movimiento Ciudadano (Citizen Movement) has chances to gather some disappointed voters. MC is the extension of Ciutadans (Citizens, C's), a Catalan party led by Albert Rivera. As I said in a previous post, Rivera has a constant presence in TV, appearing as a talk show guest or being interviewed in some programs. C's is not extremist, just ideologically ambiguous and almost indistinguishable from UPyD. It's more or less social-liberal with a strong focus on opposition to (peripheral) nationalism. Anti-independence demonstrations in Barcelona are only attended by PP and C's members, with some far-right guests (maybe unwanted) joining. Also, Ciutadans has a strong anti-corruption message and advocates for a 'democratic regeneration' in Spain. In the rest of the country, some miscellaneous independent personalities and groups have joined the MC, though the party's potential relies on Rivera's charisma (besides, he's young and good-looking). Right-wing voters dislike Díez for being a former PSOE member, but Rivera lacks of that disadvantage amongst them (allegedly, he was in PP's Youth). Last poll for the EP elections posted in the IE board gives MC a seat and it's possible that the surge of this party is halting UPyD's electoral growth. On the other hand, there's a long history with UPyD's leader Rosa Díez and Albert Rivera failing to meet up. Rosa Díez always rejected coalitions with Rivera's party (UPyD is weak in Catalonia, whereas C's was lacking of presence in the rest of Spain). UPyD and Díez have been always obsessed with having an homogeneous message and similar electoral brands throughout Spain. Rivera states that he tried hard to form a coalition, but Díez was unresponsive.

The new party made with former PP hardliners might have potential if they were led by someone with charisma. Ortega Lara, a former prison officer who was abducted by ETA for 532 days, is popular but lacks the makings and aptitudes to be a political leader. Also, PP voters were extremely loyal to their party in the past and, seemingly, many of them prefer going to abstention instead of voting for another party.

In the xenophobic far-right, perhaps Anglada and Platform for Catalonia have chances in the EP election (though I wouldn't give that for granted) but they have little to do in national politics. The fascist bunches (Democracia Nacional, Falange) are irrelevant.

Some peripheral nationalist forces (EHBildu in the Basque Country; ERC and CUP in Catalonia; AGE in Galicia) capitalize protest vote in their territories, as well C's in Catalonia on the anti-nationalist side.

[Velasco]

The particularity of Spain is that the contestation started in the street with the "indignados" and is still very street and "action" oriented. I am looking forward to see what will happen in Spain, the protests in 2011 were quite promising.

Yes (welcome to the forum, btw). Besides, the 15M movement (indignados) was clearly the predecessor and inspiration for Occupy Wall Street and similar movements in other countries (e.g. #YoSoy132 in Mexico). The indignados movement had many internal contradictions -obvious, given the heterogeneity of those who were taking part in it- and ended being diluted. Anyway, the ongoing protests in Spain owe much to the 15M.

On a second thought, I think the menace of the rooting of a xenophobic far-right in Spain, in the style of the Front National, might have diminished in the last times. On one hand in Catalonia, where PxC obtained some successes in local elections, everything is subordinated now to the debate on independence. On the other hand, the exit of thousands of foreign immigrants who found themselves unemployed, might have reduced tensions in some working-class towns with high proportion of foreign population-in Barcelona and Madrid peripheries, for example-. I'd like to see if the new hard-right split from PP (the so-called "VOX" Party) has some impact in the following polls.