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Author Topic: SC-Harper/Conservative Intel: Haley leads Sheheen  (Read 658 times)
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« on: October 30, 2013, 12:43:40 am »

Link


Haley - 49%
Sheheen - 39%


Haley's approvals are still negative, at 42/43. Sheheen has 25/29 favorability.


I'm not a 100% believer in this poll, as both sources aren't exactly unbiased and I'm willing to bet the DGA poll that had Haley up 44/40 is more accurate. A poster from DKE summed up some of the issues.

Quote
1) Firstly, women voters outvoted males by +8% in 2008 and +10% in 2010 but women are only +4% in the poll. They went 50-49 Shaheen last time, compared to men who went 55-43 Haley.

2) Voters age 65+ were 13% in 2008, 17% in 2010, but 29% in the poll. These were voters that were the strongest supporters of Haley in 2010, giving her a margin of 62-36.

3) Voters age 18-35 were (approximately due to interpolation) 27% in 2008 and 17.5% in 2010, but make up only 9% in the poll. This group of voters went approximately 55-44 to Shaheen in 2010.

4) African Americans make up 24% of this poll. In 2005, they made up 25% of voters, but in 2010 this actually increased to 27%. Admittedly, this not a huge issue considering the slight under-sampling of white voters too.

5) And finally, whilst party ID isn't a great way to judge the accuracy of a poll, the poll has a R+11 sample, which is more Republican than the 2010 SC electorate of R+8 and the 2008 electorate which was R+3.

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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2013, 01:03:53 am »

also every other poll has Haley up by ~4/5

Harper is horrible.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2013, 10:20:30 am »

Harper is horrible.

Nah, they had a solid NJ special election poll just recently.

And besides, the recent D internal was Haley+4 ...

So, the reality is likely Haley+7 or so at the moment.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2013, 03:30:44 pm »

So she's likely up by around 5 considering Harper's republican bias.
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2013, 08:47:22 pm »

Clearly there's bias from both parties in this race as with Ohio to among PPP and Qunnipiac.

Harper shows a 10 point lead there for Haley while what I would consider a very off Democratic biased poll known as The Post and Courier has Sheheen leading by 9 points 51-42. Both are incredibly off, but Harper I would suspect is closer with an increasing Haley lead.
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Zioneer
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2013, 11:45:09 pm »

Wasn't Harper worse than Rasmussen?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2013, 12:26:49 am »

Note well that the poll has the word "Conservative" in it.
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