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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 39836 times)
Miles
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« Reply #575 on: November 09, 2013, 08:54:33 am »

Virginia Beach/Hampton. I would have included Suffolk, but it had too many precinct shape changes that I didn't want to deal with.

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Sbane
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« Reply #576 on: November 09, 2013, 10:49:27 am »

I think these maps show the effect of minority turnout going down. The reason Cuccinelli didn't lose by 7-8 points is because a key part of the Obama coalition stayed home.
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DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez
dingojoe
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« Reply #577 on: November 09, 2013, 08:47:20 pm »

The vboe website has the Obenshain margin down to 59 votes.  The blogger notlarrysabato has the margin at 15 votes.
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cinyc
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« Reply #578 on: November 09, 2013, 11:01:29 pm »

The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.
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ag
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« Reply #579 on: November 09, 2013, 11:27:40 pm »

Tie! Tie!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #580 on: November 10, 2013, 02:09:28 am »

Wow! This is amazing. We won't know who will be Virginia's Attorney General for awhile.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #581 on: November 10, 2013, 03:13:28 am »

Whoever wins will have the other side crying fraud.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #582 on: November 10, 2013, 04:25:28 am »

Whoever wins will have the other side crying fraud.

This


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« Reply #583 on: November 10, 2013, 11:11:36 am »

The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.
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Flake
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« Reply #584 on: November 10, 2013, 11:15:02 am »

The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.

This entire race is so confusing.
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DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez
dingojoe
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« Reply #585 on: November 10, 2013, 11:57:54 am »

The latest numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections, which includes the missing Fairfax absentees:

Obenshain   1,103,436   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,381   49.88%   
Write-in   5,145   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,211,962

Or Obenshain +55.

The results don't include the known provisional ballots from Richmond city, which should net Herring another 11 votes, leaving Obenshain with a 44-vote lead.

Provisionals are still out from 44 localities, including Fairfax County, which has up to 490 that might be counted.  And canvassing is still going on, so some other errors might be out there.

According to Wasserman, there was another error, this time in Richmond which when corrected will give Herring an 82 vote lead.

This entire race is so confusing.

Well, you're not old enough to remember, but once upon a time there was this Presidential race between a man made of wood and a man with no brain and it came down to the state of Florida and mythical things called "hanging chads" and "butterfly ballots".... that was confusing.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #586 on: November 10, 2013, 12:19:38 pm »

What exactly does the VA election law say if there's an exact tie ?

Will the SBOE draw lots, will the candidates engage in an old-school duel like below ?



Or does the law not say what needs to be done in a scenario like this, because some side will rig the election anyway ?
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DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez
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« Reply #587 on: November 10, 2013, 12:22:21 pm »

What exactly does the VA election law say if there's an exact tie ?

Will the SBOE draw lots, will the candidates engage in an old-school duel like below ?



Or does the law not say what needs to be done in a scenario like this, because some side will rig the election anyway ?

It goes to the general assembly, so a tie would go to the Rs. 
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« Reply #588 on: November 10, 2013, 03:30:49 pm »

The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:




Wow.  The more I think about this election, the more it suggests to me that Obama actually overperformed generic progressive D in rural areas and that there is still ground for Democrats to gain in wealthy suburbs. 
The wealthiest suburbs are one place where there was a bit of a flowback in 2012, so "duh". (Yes, including in Arlington and Loudoun. Not in Fairfax taken as a whole but that's probably the Republican collapse among new minorities. I'm sure it happened in the northwest of the county.)
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Miles
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« Reply #589 on: November 10, 2013, 07:27:58 pm »

Its a few days old, but here's a Youtube video of Wasserman explaining the AG race.
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sawx
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« Reply #590 on: November 10, 2013, 10:02:39 pm »

The lead is cut to 17.

What should I sacrifice for a Herring win?
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cinyc
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« Reply #591 on: November 10, 2013, 10:23:31 pm »
« Edited: November 10, 2013, 10:25:28 pm by cinyc »


Nothing.  Barring some other unknown error, Herring should pull ahead after the Fairfax County provisionals are counted on Tuesday.  It's hard to see them going for Obenshain.

The actual numbers, from the Virginia Board of Elections' website:

Obenshain   1,103,443   49.88%   
Herring   1,103,426   49.88%   
Write-in   5,152   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,212,021   

Obenshain +17
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IceSpear
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« Reply #592 on: November 10, 2013, 10:30:28 pm »

I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?
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DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez
dingojoe
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« Reply #593 on: November 10, 2013, 10:33:57 pm »

The current lead is .000769%

If the report of the Richmond precinct is true then Herring will have 100 vote lead before Fairfax provisionals, if not, then it's still pretty grey as provisionals can be erratic.  And of course, there could still be other errors out there and a recount is inevitable.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #594 on: November 10, 2013, 10:51:42 pm »

I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?

Probably nothing.  People who write in candidates are dumb.  Tongue   
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Nathan
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« Reply #595 on: November 10, 2013, 10:57:13 pm »

My favorite tied election procedure, at least in the United States, is New Mexico's poker game method.

And yeah, you shouldn't sacrifice anything for a Herring win that is very probably in the pipeline unless something notably changes in the recount (which, granted, is itself quite possible).
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DINGO Joe stands on Sanchez
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« Reply #596 on: November 10, 2013, 10:59:34 pm »

I wonder how those people who did write in votes feel?

Some of those of those write-ins probably were for Obenshain or Herring, and probably misspelled too.  I don't think that they get counted for the candidate.  
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #597 on: November 11, 2013, 04:53:10 am »

In New Jersey: The GOP will pick up an Assembly seat in the southernmost LD01. They currently lead for a second seat in Bergen County's LD38 (Paramus), but provisional ballots in Dem-friendly towns may erase that pickup still. In Atlantic County's LD02 (Atlantic City), Republicans appear to have lost an Assembly seat in an upset.

There's was no partisan change in the NJ State Senate, which was a bit of a disappointment for the GOP. Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. fended off a leadership challenge from Sen. Kevin O'Toole by a 10 to 6 caucus vote; Christie was supposedly siding with O'Toole.
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Flake
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« Reply #598 on: November 11, 2013, 12:23:08 pm »

Imagine how bad the Virginia Republican Party would had lost if Cuccinelli hadn't purged the voting rights of 40,000.
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Miles
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« Reply #599 on: November 11, 2013, 01:22:09 pm »

Black voters turned out in disproportionately high numbers while hispanic/young turnout was relatively low; the black vote likely saved McAuliffe:

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