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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginiá)
| | |-+  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 39485 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #300 on: November 05, 2013, 10:04:30 pm »

Chuck Todd just said that that Chris Christie turned down coming to Virginia to help campaign for Cuccinelli.
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ag
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« Reply #301 on: November 05, 2013, 10:04:54 pm »

Just over 20 thousand vote lead for Obenshain (1.04%). He will, probably, win, but it is quite likely to get in a recount area. BTW, what are the recount rules in Virginia?
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #302 on: November 05, 2013, 10:04:59 pm »

Looks like Obenshain will win. There simply aren't enough outstanding votes to pull Herring over the line, it seems.

I agree with this.  He looks to be the automatic GOP 2017 gubernatorial front-runner -if he maintains his lead.  

He deserves it, managing to win despite sharing a ticket with Rick Santorum and Uncle Ruckus.
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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #303 on: November 05, 2013, 10:05:11 pm »

97% in

Obenshain up 1%
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Icefire9
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« Reply #304 on: November 05, 2013, 10:05:13 pm »

Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #305 on: November 05, 2013, 10:05:40 pm »

According to Chuck Todd Christe refused a request to campaign for Cuccinelli
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jaichind
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« Reply #306 on: November 05, 2013, 10:06:07 pm »

Not convinced the libertarian hurt Cuccinelli as much as the GOP is spinning, he did best among 18-29 year olds who otherwise were going strongly for McAuliffe...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/2013-elections/exit-polls/


I guess my argument for Sarvis hurting R is the following:  Places where Sarvis ran very strong (9%+) are all in places in Southern Virgina where Cuccinelli did very well and McAuliffe's margin of defeat was about the same as Obama.  Given what we know about the race we would expect  Cuccinelli's margin of victory to be greater than Romney especially when C Cuccinelli did better than Romney relative to Obama.  Ergo most likely Sarvis hurt R much more them D.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #307 on: November 05, 2013, 10:06:30 pm »

Wow, Chuck Todd just said Chris Christie refused to come campaign for Kooch.
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« Reply #308 on: November 05, 2013, 10:06:37 pm »

Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

This!!!!
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« Reply #309 on: November 05, 2013, 10:06:42 pm »

So McAuliffe's won this... oh well, you win some and you lose some. In an alternate universe where VA Governors can hold consecutive terms, I don't think McDonnell would have done as well as Cuccinelli did.

Still, McAuliffe didn't do as well as I thought he would, my prediction was:

McAuliffe: 49%
Cuccinelli: 46%
Sarvis: 4%
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jaichind
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« Reply #310 on: November 05, 2013, 10:07:28 pm »

Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #311 on: November 05, 2013, 10:07:45 pm »

Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #312 on: November 05, 2013, 10:07:51 pm »

So McAuliffe's won this... oh well, you win some and you lose some. In an alternate universe where VA Governors can hold consecutive terms, I don't think McDonnell would have done as well as Cuccinelli did.

Still, McAuliffe didn't do as well as I thought he would, my prediction was:

McAuliffe: 49%
Cuccinelli: 46%
Sarvis: 4%


A 3 point margin can still happen, almost all the outstanding votes are from democratic precincts.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #313 on: November 05, 2013, 10:09:13 pm »

Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.

Any link to what the questions where?
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jaichind
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« Reply #314 on: November 05, 2013, 10:09:37 pm »

Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.

I voted for proposal 1.  I saw no reason to vote against it.  I think gambling should be legal everywhere.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #315 on: November 05, 2013, 10:10:56 pm »

Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.

Any link to what the questions where?

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/ballot-measures/results.html
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #316 on: November 05, 2013, 10:11:44 pm »

Results show Christie cracking 75% in Ocean County, NJ. Amazing.
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cinyc
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« Reply #317 on: November 05, 2013, 10:13:32 pm »

Christie is leading in every county but Essex and Hudson.  Mercer and Middlesex are close and could flip.
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shua
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« Reply #318 on: November 05, 2013, 10:15:34 pm »

Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.

One can assume that many Sarvis voters would have not bothered to vote.
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ag
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« Reply #319 on: November 05, 2013, 10:16:55 pm »

Obenshain´s lead is down to about 18 thousand votes (just under 0.9%)
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Rocky Rockefeller
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« Reply #320 on: November 05, 2013, 10:18:08 pm »

Obenshain´s lead is down to about 18 thousand votes (just under 0.9%)

I really do not know who's gonna win this one.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #321 on: November 05, 2013, 10:18:36 pm »

I'm guessing the AG race will come down to a recount. Guess who'll be in charge of that? Roll Eyes
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #322 on: November 05, 2013, 10:18:54 pm »

IIRC Obama gained a percentage point or so after election night last year. Am I remembering right? If so that bodes well for Herring.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #323 on: November 05, 2013, 10:19:01 pm »

Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.
Technically true, but if that is the lesson Republicans take away from this, they should be prepared to continue to lose voters to Democrats and third party candidates. 

Third parties will always be on the ballot, keeping members are their party from voting for third parties should be among the simplest of tasks for a campaign.  The fact that Cuccinelli let so many voters go to a random Libertarian shows that he as a candidate is fundamentally flawed.

Republicans are free to deny their candidate had any flaws and that it's all Sarvis' fault.  However, they should be prepared to keep losing elections.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #324 on: November 05, 2013, 10:19:23 pm »

Christie is wavering right around 60%, and Byrne has started to pull away. He leads Young by 5% now.
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