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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
| | |-+  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread
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Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 39464 times)
Miles
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« Reply #550 on: November 07, 2013, 01:44:02 pm »

I want to go back and double check this because they renamed a few precincts in Prince William County, but it looks like Cooch won CD10 by about 2,000 votes.

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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #551 on: November 07, 2013, 02:36:48 pm »

Wow, that was fast.  Cheesy  Thanks Miles! 
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cinyc
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« Reply #552 on: November 07, 2013, 02:48:01 pm »

vpap.org on twitter claims that there are 3,100 provisional ballots outstanding in Virginia: 293 no ID; 723 not registered and 2,084 requested absentee ballot or already marked as having voted.

Of course, not all provisional ballots will be counted.  In 2009, there were only 739 provisional ballots counted across the entire state.  They broke 389-350 for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, McDonnell - about 6 points less Republican than the overall statewide tally.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #553 on: November 07, 2013, 03:14:30 pm »

I want to go back and double check this because they renamed a few precincts in Prince William County, but it looks like Cooch won CD10 by about 2,000 votes.

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Thanks!  Wow, it's right in line with 50/49 Romney in 2012.  The western areas look to have really saved Cuccinelli from the Fairfax swing.  The other interesting one would be VA-02, which Obama narrowly won last year.  It looks on par with 2012, but with the suburbs swinging D while downtown turnouts dropped.  Could you do that one when you get the chance?
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Miles
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« Reply #554 on: November 07, 2013, 04:16:30 pm »

CD2 was mirror image of CD10; McAuliffe won by about 2K votes:

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #555 on: November 07, 2013, 05:08:37 pm »

So both of the competitive CDs look just like 2012.  Very fascinating.  This means they both moved left relative to the state.  It also looks like a pretty sure thing that McAuliffe did better than Obama % wise in VA-08.  So it will be very interesting to see where Cuccinelli did a lot better than Romney to offset that and create a tighter statewide race.  My guess is that Cuccinelli overperformed most in VA-09, VA-04 and VA-03.  VA-05 is a mixed bag because the Charlottesville area was a lot more D than in 2012.
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cinyc
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« Reply #556 on: November 07, 2013, 05:29:17 pm »

New Virginia State BoE totals:

Obenshain   1,101,317   49.90%   
Herring   1,100,540   49.87%   
Write-in   4,982   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,839   

Obenshain + 777
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Mayor Steve Pearce
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« Reply #557 on: November 07, 2013, 11:36:51 pm »

And according to Dave Wasserman, 3,000 absentee ballots might be missing from the most Democratic House district in Fairfax. An official in Fairfax County also says he's convinced there's an issue.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #558 on: November 08, 2013, 10:41:28 am »


This would probably put Herring over the top for good!
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« Reply #559 on: November 08, 2013, 11:42:15 am »

Except there still will be a recount, right?
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Holmes
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« Reply #560 on: November 08, 2013, 12:18:13 pm »

There will be a recount, fighting, grandstanding, lawsuits, whining, you can expect it all.
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AverroŽs
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« Reply #561 on: November 08, 2013, 12:47:09 pm »

Crossposting:

Quick sketch of the result:

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #562 on: November 08, 2013, 01:04:45 pm »


Well, sure, but they have to actually find those ballots first...
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cinyc
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« Reply #563 on: November 08, 2013, 03:39:30 pm »

New numbers from the Virginia State Board of Elections' website:   

Obenshain   1,102,039   49.92%   
Herring   1,100,767   49.86%   
Write-in   4,994   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,207,800

Obenshain +1,272

This was largely due to a missing precinct in Bedford County.  The supposedly missing Fairfax absentees are not reflected yet.  Those should give Herring the lead if/when included.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #564 on: November 08, 2013, 04:58:38 pm »

The VA AG race is starting to remind me of Franken v Coleman for MN Senate 2008...which dragged on for months.

Soon they will be disputed ballots like this one from that race
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« Last Edit: November 08, 2013, 05:00:43 pm by Likely Voter »Logged
rbt48
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« Reply #565 on: November 08, 2013, 05:20:41 pm »

So if there are really 3,000 missing absentee ballots from Fairfax County, Herring needs to win them by about 70 to 30% in order to make up the 1200 vote deficit  (2,100 to 900).  I don't see that happening. 

Barring another significant error, looks like Obenshain is the next VA AG to me.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #566 on: November 08, 2013, 05:31:18 pm »

So if there are really 3,000 missing absentee ballots from Fairfax County, Herring needs to win them by about 70 to 30% in order to make up the 1200 vote deficit  (2,100 to 900).  I don't see that happening. 

Barring another significant error, looks like Obenshain is the next VA AG to me.

Judging from the precincts these supposed absentees come from, I've seen people suggesting they could break 65-35, 70-30, or even 75-25. And it's still possible random revisions and errors could happen which help or hurt either candidate. This will probably go down to the wire.

Of course, this assumes that these absentees actually exist. So far they're still hypothetical.
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cinyc
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« Reply #567 on: November 08, 2013, 05:32:25 pm »

According to the Washington Post, there are 1,951 unrecorded votes in Fairfax County's Mason district voting center. 

If those are all the missing absentees and there are no other changes, Herring would need to win about 82.5% of them to erase Obenshain's 1,272 vote lead.  The CD-8 absentees that are in so far are 73.5% Herring.

According to the Fairfax County Electoral Board, there's an open meeting tomorrow at 10AM to present the results of the absentee ballot investigation, and a meeting on the county's provisional ballots starting at 2PM.  They expect concluding the overall canvass on Sunday.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #568 on: November 08, 2013, 05:38:58 pm »

Also I'm curious as to whether McAuliffe carried any of the 8 R-held congressional districts?  Based on the map I think only CD-10 would be in doubt.

The second is in doubt.  My numbers have a 47%-47% tie with Cooch ahead by about 100 votes.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #569 on: November 08, 2013, 08:12:30 pm »

Obenshain now has a 130 vote lead after the absentees were counted. But provisionals have yet to be counted. Dave Wasserman says Herring could net 122 votes from provisionals: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/398944289922617344

Let the litigating begin.
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cinyc
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« Reply #570 on: November 08, 2013, 08:13:36 pm »

Unofficially via Twitter, the good news for Herring, there were 3,008 missing absentees found in Fairfax County.  The bad news is that they only broke 68.8% for Herring, so he's still behind by 120 or 130 after another 10 votes were found for him in the unofficial Fairfax recanvass.

It will come down to the provisional ballots and any additional mistallies.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2013, 08:59:42 pm by cinyc »Logged
ag
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« Reply #571 on: November 08, 2013, 08:47:21 pm »

I am rooting for an exact tie!
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #572 on: November 08, 2013, 09:47:19 pm »

I am rooting for an exact tie!


Especially if the tiebreaker is a steel cage match.
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Miles
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« Reply #573 on: November 09, 2013, 02:29:56 am »

The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #574 on: November 09, 2013, 02:52:53 am »

The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:

Img



Wow.  The more I think about this election, the more it suggests to me that Obama actually overperformed generic progressive D in rural areas and that there is still ground for Democrats to gain in wealthy suburbs.  The populist anti-Romney rhetoric probably did sway things at both sides of the spectrum.  If 2016 is suburban D vs. Tea Party R, I would expect the polarization to increase further (maybe 70%D in Fairfax and  70% R in WV?). 
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