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  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 40777 times)
jaichind
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: November 05, 2013, 08:27:56 pm »

Looks like we are headed for McAuliffe victory by 3 points or so.  Looks like AG is +2 R relative to Governor so it will be very close there and down to the wire.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,359
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2013, 08:30:21 pm »

Of course Loudon and Fairfax only have votes counted in the teens so it could still turn more McAuliffe 's way for him to win a 5-6 point victory.  We will see.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2013, 08:31:40 pm »

In McAuliffe's favor is Arlington is mostly counted and he is running ahead of Obama by a couple of points.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,359
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2013, 08:33:39 pm »

It is clear that McAuliffe is running behind Obama in Southern Virgina urban areas.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2013, 08:42:32 pm »

If I were Cuccinelli I would be very angry at Sarvis.  Without Sarvis it seems that Cuccinelli would have a good chance to win looking at these results.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2013, 08:44:34 pm »

So, they're changing the exit polls to conform with the actual results? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of having exit polls?

Yes.  But this what they did in 2004.  All exit polls had Kerry winning in swing states and then as the results came in for Bush, THEY CHANGED THE EXIT POLLS.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2013, 08:46:45 pm »

What is interesting is that Sarvis is running strong in places where Cuccinelli is running strong AND McAuliffe running about the same as Obama.  This means that  Sarvis took votes away from  Cuccinelli big time.
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2013, 08:56:25 pm »

Polls closing in NY soon.  I love to find out results of Westchester County Executive which was the key race I vote in today.  Given how bad we are at counting votes I doubt I will find out tonight the result.  Sigh.
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2013, 09:33:17 pm »

Amendment 66, the big tax hike in Colorado, is going down in flames.

And that with a more than ten-to-one spending gap, too. Not only does that make Michael Bloomberg 0-for-3 in Colorado elections this year, but it is also a major loss for Governor Hickenlooper and suggests that Colorado's conservative rebellion is strong.

YES!!!
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2013, 09:45:01 pm »

Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)  49%
BRAMSON(D)   51%

6% reporting
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jaichind
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2013, 09:47:53 pm »

Looks like it will be McAuliffe by about 1%-2%.

AG not clear who will win.
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2013, 09:54:52 pm »

Westchester County executive

With 9% in it is

ASTORINO(R)  52
BRAMSON(D)   48

Since a lot of the district reporting are Dem strongholds (some of them R did not even put up a candidate for Co Legislator), it seems clear that Astorino will win and most likely a good margin.

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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2013, 10:01:06 pm »

Looks like R are going to come through in VA AG.  
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2013, 10:02:27 pm »

I think if Sarvis did not run the VA Gov race results would be similar to the AG result, close R victory.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2013, 10:06:07 pm »

Not convinced the libertarian hurt Cuccinelli as much as the GOP is spinning, he did best among 18-29 year olds who otherwise were going strongly for McAuliffe...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/local/2013-elections/exit-polls/


I guess my argument for Sarvis hurting R is the following:  Places where Sarvis ran very strong (9%+) are all in places in Southern Virgina where Cuccinelli did very well and McAuliffe's margin of defeat was about the same as Obama.  Given what we know about the race we would expect  Cuccinelli's margin of victory to be greater than Romney especially when C Cuccinelli did better than Romney relative to Obama.  Ergo most likely Sarvis hurt R much more them D.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2013, 10:07:28 pm »

Don't start blaming Sarvis.  The reason why Republicans are voting for Sarvis are because of how extreme Cuccinelli is.  There is only one person to blame for the Republican's defeat and that is Cuccinelli (well, him and everyone who voted for him.)

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.
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jaichind
YaBB God
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Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2013, 10:09:37 pm »

Proposal 1 and 5 in NY state are winning. Ugh.

Ugh indeed.  Well, I'm actually somewhat conflicted on 1, but did ultimately vote no.

But it's early, very few results from NYC, there's hope yet.

At least 3 is winning; a No vote on that would be truly disastrous.

I voted for proposal 1.  I saw no reason to vote against it.  I think gambling should be legal everywhere.
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2013, 10:22:28 pm »
« Edited: November 05, 2013, 10:24:42 pm by jaichind »

Well, if polls that showed R behind by 4 or 6 before the election had R and D close to being tied if  Sarvis were not running, then one can assume that R would win given the results tonight.
Technically true, but if that is the lesson Republicans take away from this, they should be prepared to continue to lose voters to Democrats and third party candidates.  

Third parties will always be on the ballot, keeping members are their party from voting for third parties should be among the simplest of tasks for a campaign.  The fact that Cuccinelli let so many voters go to a random Libertarian shows that he as a candidate is fundamentally flawed.

Republicans are free to deny their candidate had any flaws and that it's all Sarvis' fault.  However, they should be prepared to keep losing elections.

You make a very good point.  In fact this result shows the resiliency of the GOP brand.  To have a very flawed candidate after the whole shutdown fiasco and a third party candidate that took a bunch of votes away and still just lose by 1.5% or so is not that bad of a result.  But yes, if the GOP wants to win in Virgina they better come up with good candidates.
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2013, 10:24:00 pm »

Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    54%
BRAMSON(D)     46%

with 24% of the vote counted.  I suspect it will be like this the rest of the night.  Astorino wins reelection.  
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2013, 10:41:25 pm »

Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    54%
BRAMSON(D)     46%

with 24% of the vote counted.  I suspect it will be like this the rest of the night.  Astorino wins reelection.  


Nassau County Executive
Mangano (R) 61%
Suozzi (D) 39%
with 23% in

Rockland County Executive
Day (R) 49.30%
Fried (D) 48.83%
with 28% in

Both Astorino and Mangano will most likely run for statewide office in the future given their re-elections.  Especially Astorino to win in Westcheter back in 2009 was a shock.
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2013, 11:30:09 pm »

On the bright side for republicans, they can take decent shots and possibly defeat incumbent Terry McAuliffe in 2017 if they're smart enough to nominate the right candidate by then.

I thought McAuliffe could not run for reelection anyway.
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2013, 07:45:07 am »
« Edited: November 06, 2013, 08:12:55 am by jaichind »

Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    55%
BRAMSON(D)     45%

with 81% of Districts reporting.  So Bramson's attempt to nationalize the race by linking Astorino to the Tea Party failed although he did reduce the margin of victory for Astorino from 2009 when Astorino won with 57% of the vote.

As usual Westchester county is the slowest vote counting region in all of USA.  11 hours after the polls closed they only have results from 81% of the district.  This is really sad.

Now that Astorino has won the main focus will be on the Westchester County Council where the Dems had a 10-7 edge over the GOP.  The main goal of the GOP is to avoid losing 2 seats and stop the Dems from getting a veto-overriding majority.  Right now it is 9-6 for Dems with 2 seats neck-to-neck.  So it will end up being R+1, D+1, or flat.  I suspect it will end up being flat.  Also since 2 Dems on the Council often votes with the GOP the GOP had a de facto 9-8 majority on many issues including the budget.  So it is also important for the GOP not to lose any seats. 

The partisan breakdown in Westchster can be see in the vote for Family Court Judge where all parities (GOP, Dem, Working Families, Conservative, and Independent) endorsed the same candidate.  The vote by party line is instructive on the partisan breakdown of the electorate (62% Dem, 28% GOP, 5% Conservative, 2% Working Families, 2% Independent.)   This is a far cry from the 1950s when Westchester was a GOP bastion.  Of course the GOP does much better than these numbers suggest mainly because of the property tax issue and the Federal Government Fair housing issue where the Obama regime is trying to push for zoning laws to allow for low income housing.  When low income housing is mentioned is when the upper middle-class white liberal progressive fascade comes off and they vote for GOP block such changes.  You see, it is fine for my progressive neighbors to talk about how liberal progressive and open-minded they are.  But when it comes to real low-income minorities living in the same neighbhoods and going to the same schools is when all of that bunk comes crashing down. 
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jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13,359
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2013, 01:38:34 pm »
« Edited: November 07, 2013, 01:51:01 pm by jaichind »

Westchester County is finally done 40 hours after the polls closed.  For County Executive it is

ROB ASTORINO(R)   56%
NOAM BRAMSON(D) 44%

This is almost the same as 2009 when Astorino won 57% of the vote in a surprise victory.  It seems the property tax and low-income housing issues still has legs here in Westchester.  Looking at the ads it is also clear Astorino clearly outspent Bramson by a wide margin.  I am pretty sure Astorino will run for NY governor 2018.

The Vote for Family Court Judge is in useful as all parties nominated the same person but looking at the line people voted for this unanimous candidate gives us a good idea the partisan breakdown of voters that turned out.

DEM                   53%
GOP                   35%
Conservative        7%
Working Families  3%
Independent        3%

So Right/Left split is around 42/56.

There are no turnover for County Legislature as the Dems successfully defended two open seats and GOP beat back Dem attempts to capture two vulnerable GOP incumbents.   So in the end it will stay 10-7 for the Dems.  With the same 2 Dem legislators voting with the GOP on budget issues being reelected without GOP competition, this means Astorino will not face a Dem veto-proof majority and in fact will have a de facto 9-8 majority as it continues to face off with the Obama regime over the low-income fair housing battles.
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