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  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 40734 times)
cinyc
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« on: November 05, 2013, 07:08:22 pm »
« edited: November 05, 2013, 07:09:57 pm by cinyc »

Virginia's State Board of Elections results page:
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsSW.aspx?type=SWR&map=CTY

Results are available down to the precinct level.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2013, 07:42:00 pm »

7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.

Yeah, though to be fair that's exactly where you'd expect him to do better than Cooch. So we'll see...

Oh I agree totally. But my point is he should also be doing better than a single point over Cooch even downstate, so......

Obenshain is doing 5-6 points better than Cooch according to the State Board of Elections' numbers, which are running ahead of the AP tally.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2013, 08:36:01 pm »

45% in...Cucinelli by 5%.  Of course, there are no live maps this year to show where the counted votes are coming from.

Precinct-level results are available from the State Board of Elections' website by clicking on the individual county results here:
http://electionresults.virginia.gov/resultsCTY.aspx?type=SWR&rid=315&osn=4&map=CTY
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2013, 08:44:17 pm »

So, they're changing the exit polls to conform with the actual results? Doesn't that defeat the purpose of having exit polls?

That's what they always do.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2013, 08:53:00 pm »

Herring actually doing better than T-Mac in Loudoun and Prince William... um...

As he is statewide - because there's no third-party candidate to siphon votes in the AG's race.
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2013, 09:27:20 pm »


http://project.wnyc.org/election2013/

No results in yet.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2013, 10:13:32 pm »

Christie is leading in every county but Essex and Hudson.  Mercer and Middlesex are close and could flip.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2013, 10:33:56 pm »

Westchester County Executive

ASTORINO(R)    54%
BRAMSON(D)     46%

with 24% of the vote counted.  I suspect it will be like this the rest of the night.  Astorino wins reelection.  


Nassau County Executive
Mangano (R) 61%
Suozzi (D) 39%
with 23% in

Rockland County Executive
Day (R) 49.30%
Fried (D) 48.83%
with 28% in
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2013, 10:39:01 pm »


Thompson (D) is leading incumbent Hynes about 70-30 with 9% in.
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2013, 11:03:00 pm »


http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2013/by_county/NY_Page_1105.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

54%-44% Lhota with about 24% in.
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2013, 11:32:25 pm »

AP projects that the NY Casino Gambling referendum will pass.  It's up 56%-44%.
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2013, 11:34:22 pm »

According to WP, Obenshain is ahead by 1,191 votes.

How are they higher in the vote total than SBOE? 

The SBOE is always behind.

then who do the news sources get their numbers from?

The Associated Press gets their information from the various boards of elections.  There is a discrepancy between the state BoE site and the AP results.  There has been all night.
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cinyc
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2013, 11:39:39 pm »


It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  Smiley
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2013, 11:43:12 pm »


It's leading by about the same percentage in Westchester County, which is usually a good belwether in statewide elections.  It will pass.  Good jobs will stay in the Adirondacks!  Smiley

I don't see how spitting in the face of "forever wild" deserves a smiley face here.

There will be more land put into the reserve than taken out.  Everybody wins.
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2013, 11:49:12 pm »

No, it's the principle of the thing.  "Forever wild" means "forever wild"- and the Adirondacks were very specifically and purposefully created to be forever wild.  You don't f[inks] with that, if words have meaning.

Also, I'll trust the mining company's promise about as far as I can throw it.

We vote on land swaps in the Adirondacks all the time.  Every time, at least as much new land is put into the reserve as is taken out.  People live in the Adirondacks.  They need to be able to make a living.
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2013, 12:51:14 am »

De Blasio is winning NYC 73%-24%.  But Lhota is winning Staten Island 54%-44% with 97% in.
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cinyc
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« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2013, 12:58:21 am »

Lief will be happy to learn that the AP has projected NY Referendum 5 - the land swap for mining in the Adirondacks - has passed.  The 53%-47% margin is holding.
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2013, 03:06:55 pm »

Anyone have final Nassau County (NY) results including the County Legislature?

http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/boe/results.html

With all but one precinct in:

County Executive
Mangano (R) 58.7%
Suozzi (D) 41.0%

District Attorney
Rice (D) 58.7%
Sturim (R) 41.3%

Comptroller
Maragos (R) 52.6%
Weitzman (D) 47.4%

County Clerk
O'Connell (R) 56.9%
Gillen (D) 43.1%

By my tally, Republicans retain control of the Nassau County Legislature, 10-8-1, with the 1 being a cross-endorsed Democrat who caucuses with Republicans.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2013, 03:48:04 pm »
« Edited: November 06, 2013, 03:51:53 pm by cinyc »

The absentees have been counted already, no? It's just provisionals we're waiting for.

Absentees from most counties are included in the State Board of Elections tally.  Best I can tell, the only ones that the spreadsheet doesn't show a central absentee precinct for is Buena Vista City (R-leaning), Craig County (R-leaning), Norton City (R-leaning, but it only has 1 precinct, so absentees could have been folded in) and Sussex County (D-leaning) - though I might have missed a few counties.

Some provisionals are included in the State BoE tally.  We're generally talking about single-digit votes in the counties where they are in, though.  So I wouldn't expect much from them.

When I downloaded the spreadsheet to do the analysis about a half hour ago, the State BoE tally was:
Obenshain 1,101,029   
Herring 1,099,900   
Write-in 4704
So Obenshain + 1,129 -  a margin thinner than the write-ins.

It has since gone up to
Obershain 1,101,073   
Herring 1,099,904   
Write-in 4,920
Or Obershain +1,169
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cinyc
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« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2013, 06:11:22 pm »

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   
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cinyc
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« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2013, 06:59:45 pm »

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

Shocked

Just Shocked

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.

I don't think anyone is screwed.  The most recent changes came from canvassing errors.  There could be more of them in either candidate's favor.  Canvassing errors tend to be random and don't help or harm any particular party.

Most, if not all absentees are in.  A few counties/cities have returns that don't include a central absentee precinct - but it's not clear if they have to have one.  The jurisdictions that don't have a listed central absentee precinct tend to favor Obenshain.  The provisional votes that have been counted in some counties are few - we're talking single digit total votes.  There might not be many provisional ballots to be counted.
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cinyc
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« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2013, 07:36:41 pm »

Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.

There will be more tabulation errors.  There always are tabulation errors in the preliminary tally.  Normally, we don't notice because the margin isn't razor-thin.

There's a theory (probably correct) on Red Racing Horses that the flip itself was caused by a data entry error.  The precinct in Prince William that changed most in the recanvassing was 306 - Washington-Reid.  It went from 636-758-3 (R-D-Write-in) to 636-1517-3 - an increase of 759 votes for Herring, which is coincidentally one more vote than he received in the pre-recanvass tally.  McAulliffe is listed as winning that precinct 745-609-55-1.  And Obama only won Washington-Reid by 99 votes, 976-877.  I doubt Herring did that much better than Obama or outpolled McAuliffe by 700.

 
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cinyc
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« Reply #22 on: November 06, 2013, 08:25:13 pm »

...and the Prince William County tabulation error has been fixed on the Virginia State Board of Elections' website.  Obenshain is now ahead by 726:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.90%   
Herring   1,100,072   49.87%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,205,843   
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cinyc
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« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2013, 02:48:01 pm »

vpap.org on twitter claims that there are 3,100 provisional ballots outstanding in Virginia: 293 no ID; 723 not registered and 2,084 requested absentee ballot or already marked as having voted.

Of course, not all provisional ballots will be counted.  In 2009, there were only 739 provisional ballots counted across the entire state.  They broke 389-350 for the Republican gubernatorial candidate, McDonnell - about 6 points less Republican than the overall statewide tally.
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cinyc
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« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2013, 05:29:17 pm »

New Virginia State BoE totals:

Obenshain   1,101,317   49.90%   
Herring   1,100,540   49.87%   
Write-in   4,982   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,839   

Obenshain + 777
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