Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 17, 2019, 08:37:48 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Silurian)
  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 39772 times)
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« on: November 05, 2013, 07:26:32 pm »

Here's a good chart of county result benchmarks, based on the last three elections and a hypothetical T-Mac 7.5% win: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AvOrrxBeaarVdFQ1NGJLa1UyMVpRYjZTTVZ1aVE2V0E&toomany=true#gid=0

Not much use considering it doesn't take 3rd party vote for the numerical benchmarks.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2013, 07:35:43 pm »

7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2013, 07:38:55 pm »

7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.

Yeah, though to be fair that's exactly where you'd expect him to do better than Cooch. So we'll see...

Oh I agree totally. But my point is he should also be doing better than a single point over Cooch even downstate, so......
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2013, 07:45:25 pm »

7% in, Kook leads by 14%, the Lt Gov race is a tie, and Obenshain leads by 15%

Interesting that Obenshain doesn't seem to be doing any better than Kook so far...

Obenshain better do substantially better than Cooch in the NOVA counties yet to report or he's toast.

Yeah, though to be fair that's exactly where you'd expect him to do better than Cooch. So we'll see...

Oh I agree totally. But my point is he should also be doing better than a single point over Cooch even downstate, so......

Obenshain is doing 5-6 points better than Cooch according to the State Board of Elections' numbers, which are running ahead of the AP tally.

Thanks Cynic. That's brighter news for Obenshain, but probably still a bit short.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2013, 10:59:16 pm »

Looks like Lhota is winning Staten Island lol.

Link?
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2013, 07:53:44 am »

Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2013, 01:31:31 pm »

Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.

It's ok. I anxiously await the snake oil salesman's unpopulararity bringing down the VA Dems.

By the way, you really don't have to comb through my posts and throw jabs.

You'll notice from my posting history I was actively following this thread. Don't flatter yourself.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2013, 04:24:43 pm »

Terry McAuliffe is a joke piece of trash. I'm so going to love his disastrous term as Governor.

Has Pretentious Public Polling put out a statement about how horribly wrong they were?

Someone's butthurt.

It's ok. I anxiously await the snake oil salesman's unpopulararity bringing down the VA Dems.

By the way, you really don't have to comb through my posts and throw jabs.

You'll notice from my posting history I was actively following this thread. Don't flatter yourself.

I've noticed in other threads, you respond/bump older posts of mine when returning from one of your extended periods away from this place. Wink

They're only a bump to the rest of you when I return from a sojourn in the real world; they're fresh and pithy responses from my perspective. Tongue
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2013, 06:33:28 pm »

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

Shocked

Just Shocked

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2013, 07:08:07 pm »

And after some recanvassing, particularly in Prince William County, Herring takes a 32-vote lead in the State BoE tally:

Obenshain   1,100,798   49.89%   
Herring   1,100,830   49.89%   
Write-in   4,973   0.23%   
Total Votes   2,206,601   

Shocked

Just Shocked

So do we know if this is with absentees or without? Anyone know the schedule for counting provisionals?

My guess is Obershain is screwed at this point.

I don't think anyone is screwed.  The most recent changes came from canvassing errors.  There could be more of them in either candidate's favor.  Canvassing errors tend to be random and don't help or harm any particular party.

Most, if not all absentees are in.  A few counties/cities have returns that don't include a central absentee precinct - but it's not clear if they have to have one.  The jurisdictions that don't have a listed central absentee precinct tend to favor Obenshain.  The provisional votes that have been counted in some counties are few - we're talking single digit total votes.  There might not be many provisional ballots to be counted.

Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.
Logged
Badger
badger
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 23,166
United States


« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2013, 07:53:48 pm »

Well, given that provisionals tend to favor Dems, and as you said the jurisidictions with unreported central absentee precincts tend to favor Herring (or rather the ones without such precincts favor Obershain, ergo...), that makes it quite unlikely Obershain's deficit will increase. Not likely by much, but when he's already behind even slightly that's still a bad thing.

It sounds like he needs to rely on a few counting/recording errors in his favor to be discovered in order to win. Not impossible, but not likely either.

There will be more tabulation errors.  There always are tabulation errors in the preliminary tally.  Normally, we don't notice because the margin isn't razor-thin.

There's a theory (probably correct) on Red Racing Horses that the flip itself was caused by a data entry error.  The precinct in Prince William that changed most in the recanvassing was 306 - Washington-Reid.  It went from 636-758-3 (R-D-Write-in) to 636-1517-3 - an increase of 759 votes for Herring, which is coincidentally one more vote than he received in the pre-recanvass tally.  McAulliffe is listed as winning that precinct 745-609-55-1.  And Obama only won Washington-Reid by 99 votes, 976-877.  I doubt Herring did that much better than Obama or outpolled McAuliffe by 700.

 

Normally I'd say tabulation errors can benefit either candidate equally, but that's a very specific example that should cheer VA Republicans. Good show, Cinyc!
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC