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  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: The OFFICIAL 2013 Election Results Thread  (Read 39634 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: November 06, 2013, 01:17:19 pm »

Interesting that VA polling was 4.2% too D in 2013 and 4.1% too D in 2009.  I think this was more a matter of public pollsters failing to account for how skewed odd-year vs. presidential turnout is than anything about McAuliffe, Cuccinelli or Obama. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2013, 01:18:52 pm »

Also I'm curious as to whether McAuliffe carried any of the 8 R-held congressional districts?  Based on the map I think only CD-10 would be in doubt.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2013, 01:27:18 pm »

Interesting that VA polling was 4.2% too D in 2013 and 4.1% too D in 2009.  I think this was more a matter of public pollsters failing to account for how skewed odd-year vs. presidential turnout is than anything about McAuliffe, Cuccinelli or Obama. 

Yet pollsters got the Lt. Gov and AG races more or less correct. Probably a "shy tory" effect for Kooch.

Good point.  Northam still getting his 10 point win and Herring still getting a tie suggests something personal about McAuliffe.  Maybe the Ewww factor was more even than we realized.  This is also the first election where NOVA truly swung everything.  Cuccinelli wins without Fairfax.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2013, 12:30:09 pm »

The swing map for the southwest:

Img


Hey Miles, could you check results/swing for VA-10 (the westernmost NOVA seat)?  It looks like McAuliffe did much better than Obama there and the winner may be in doubt.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2013, 03:14:30 pm »

I want to go back and double check this because they renamed a few precincts in Prince William County, but it looks like Cooch won CD10 by about 2,000 votes.

Img


Thanks!  Wow, it's right in line with 50/49 Romney in 2012.  The western areas look to have really saved Cuccinelli from the Fairfax swing.  The other interesting one would be VA-02, which Obama narrowly won last year.  It looks on par with 2012, but with the suburbs swinging D while downtown turnouts dropped.  Could you do that one when you get the chance?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2013, 05:08:37 pm »

So both of the competitive CDs look just like 2012.  Very fascinating.  This means they both moved left relative to the state.  It also looks like a pretty sure thing that McAuliffe did better than Obama % wise in VA-08.  So it will be very interesting to see where Cuccinelli did a lot better than Romney to offset that and create a tighter statewide race.  My guess is that Cuccinelli overperformed most in VA-09, VA-04 and VA-03.  VA-05 is a mixed bag because the Charlottesville area was a lot more D than in 2012.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2013, 02:52:53 am »

The 2-party swing in Fairfax/Arlington Counties and the surrounding municipalities from 2012 to 2013:

Img



Wow.  The more I think about this election, the more it suggests to me that Obama actually overperformed generic progressive D in rural areas and that there is still ground for Democrats to gain in wealthy suburbs.  The populist anti-Romney rhetoric probably did sway things at both sides of the spectrum.  If 2016 is suburban D vs. Tea Party R, I would expect the polarization to increase further (maybe 70%D in Fairfax and  70% R in WV?). 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2013, 03:25:54 pm »

So we know that VA will have 2 special elections for the tied state senate no matter who wins the AG race.  Do we have McAuliffe/Cuccinelli stats for:

SD-33 (Herring)- was ~59% Obama 2012
SD-26 (Obenshain)- was ~60% Romney
SD-06 (Northam)- was ~57% Obama 2012
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2013, 06:47:19 pm »

The caucuses for the special election in Lt Gov-elect Ralph Northam's 6th district will be on Nov 16 for the Democrats and Nov 21 for the Republicans. Any voter in the district will be allowed to vote in either - or both!

Democrats have three candidates
Quote
Three Democrats have announced candidacies: Lynwood Lewis, an Eastern Shore delegate who just won a sixth House term; Andria McClellan, who was Northamís campaign treasurer; and former Norfolk Del. Paula Miller

I personally like McClellan the most.

Hey Miles, I have one more request for you.  In light of the upcoming special elections, could you do McAuliffe/Cuccinelli numbers for SD-06 (Northam), SD-33 (Herring) and just in case, SD-26 (Obenshain)?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: December 02, 2013, 11:18:04 pm »

VA Governor-by-CD. I was right about 2 and 10!

McAulilffe/Cuccinelli

CD1- 42/52
CD2- 47/45
CD3- 75/19
CD4- 45/48
CD5- 41/51
CD6- 35/58
CD7- 38/52
CD8- 68/27
CD9- 32/61
CD10- 47/48
CD11- 60/35
And I guess that CD2, CD4 and CD10 are trending dem?

Nah, the 2012 results were similar:

Obama/Romney

CD1: 46/53
CD2: 50/49
CD3: 79/20
CD4: 49/50
CD5: 46/52
CD6: 39/59
CD7: 42/57
CD8: 68/31
CD9: 35/63
CD10: 49/50
CD11: 62/36

McAuliffe lagged Obama 2012 by 1.4% and still performed the same in the two competitive districts.  That suggests they are either moving slowly left or they don't swing much at all. 
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