Did Southwest Virginia surprise you last night?

[Miles]

This thread is very confusing to me.

Why?

Its pretty simple; Democrats are likely to lose a Senate seat in this region and we're looking at where they can offset that elsewhere.

[Skill and Chance]

Disregard previous comment.  Thought it was 3 votes.  This is in line with past SD-13 results.  McAuliffe did 1% better than Obama or Kaine there.  What about SD-20?  I'm expecting a Cuccinelli blowout...

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes it did surprise me, but it does prove a few things:

1. Racist voting isn't really much of a thing as much as liberals like to think it is.
2. The democratic party moving further to the left makes these traditional democrats vote republican. (Even though republican party is moving faster to the right, these are conservatives to start with who didn't really know their place)
3. The nation (and Virginia) is becoming even more polarized by area and by demographic groups.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think it's a big deal that Deeds performed better than McAuliffe considering Deeds is from that part of the state

In most of VA-09, Obama (in 2012) performed better than McAuliffe.  That is a big deal.

Yeah. Cuccinelli won CD9 61-32-7. With just the two-party vote, thats 66-34, compared to Romney's 64-36.

You gotta be wondering what Senator Phil Puckett is thinking. He's the last Democrat from this area. He was mostly unopposed until a 53-47 win in 2011. His district was 67% Romney, 66% Allen; his district voted like that this time, too:

Gov: 64-31 Cooch
LG: 64-36 Jackson
AG: 68-32 Obenshain

Well he is apparently 66, so I would guess he is almost certainly retiring in 2015.  And the seat will be gone for D's.  That would mean D's need a pick up in 2015 to maintain the 20-20 tie.  There are two R-held Obama seats: SD-10 (50.3% Obama 2012) or SD-07 in Virginia Beach (flipped from McCain to Obama, barely).  Did McAuliffe win either of these?

The good part about the VA state senate is that all of the Dem held state senate seats save Puckett's are pretty safe.  The next worst one is John Edwards' in Roanoke that is around 55% Obama.

[JacobNC]

Particularly, does it surprise you that even EW Jackson, the black GOP Lt. Governor candidate, carried the region so overwhelmingly?  (He even outperformed Cuccenelli in some counties.)  It is a little bit interesting that in this area where Obama underperformed Kerry, voters solidly backed a black candidate over a fairly moderate white Democrat, but it doesn't surprise me too much that Jackson won the region.  Does Jackson's performance in SW VA provide credibility to the argument that Appalachia does not vote based on racism?  I suppose that even some racists in the area were eager to vote for a firebrand, Obama-bashing candidate, even if the candidate was black.

I doubt many people in SW VA knew who E.W. Jackson was or that he was black.  They just knew that Terry McAuliffe was liberal and hates coal.  And that dragged down the whole Democratic ticket.  E.W. Jackson outperformed Cuccinelli because of the Sarvis voters.

[Skill and Chance]

One more question for you, Miles: Did Herring or Obenshain win SD-10 (the 46/42 McAuliffe one)?

[Miles]

One more question for you, Miles: Did Herring or Obenshain win SD-10 (the 46/42 McAuliffe one)?

Herring won it by 3 points.

[Miles]

This is something I put together looking at the counties in southwest VA that actually have coal mines (plus the town of Norton located within Wise County).

I put together the Presidential data of these counties from the last 10 elections. Originally, I was just going to compare them to the state as whole and the country, but Gass and I were looking over it and we thought it would be good to include WV too.

Anywho, this is the Democrats' 2-party share of the vote in the SWVA coal counties compared to their 2-party vote in VA, WV and the rest of the country.



Some of the obvious observations I made; others are welcome:

- Reagan narrowly lost these counties in 1984.
- 2000 was the first year where these counties were more R than the country.
- The SWVA coal counties, up until 2008 were actually more D than WV.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well of course they were. Not all of WV is coalfield. Though a long-term analysis is good as it neatly demonstrates the main reason for what has happened: the Democratic Party's abandonment of redistribution, which was the sole positive reason for voting the Democratic ticket.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Well of course they were. Not all of WV is coalfield. Though a long-term analysis is good as it neatly demonstrates the main reason for what has happened: the Democratic Party's abandonment of redistribution, which was the sole positive reason for voting the Democratic ticket.

Could you please elaborate as to what "redistribution" means in this context?

There's something strange about coal country's embrace of the Republican Party. This is a party that refused to investigate the frequent occurrence of black lung cases in the 21st century once they took control of Congress. This is a party that would gladly shove coal miners into a meat grinder if they received a six-figure payment for each death and yet the Democrats' new cosmopolitan image is toxic to the point that coal miners embraced Mitt Romney, out of all people. I must be living in a sublime world of dreams, this is all so strange yet all so familiar.

Listening to the children of urban academics, lawyers, PR men, quants and accountants discuss politics reminds me why a self-respecting blue collar worker would never vote for the Democratic Party. These urban professionals, who are the core of the party, look upon those with high school educations as if they're ignorant subhumans. The classism is apparent in every mannerism of these people. I'm just thankful that a few Democratic bastions of the proletariat still exist. At the very least, Mexican-American agricultural workers and their children will wave the flag of the working class in the party for the next century.

[morgieb]

I guess that most of the real miners don't vote. And there are 'cultural' reasons, etc.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I guess that most of the real miners don't vote. And there are 'cultural' reasons, etc.

Check out the results of actual mining towns. They're almost as brutal. I think Democrats are finally dead in this part of the world. I guess I can still look to Duluth if I want my dose of blue collar leftism but it's a sad time to be a Democrat who identifies with the working class. Even if these are the same guys that would call me a beaner, I have far more respect for them than I have for the grade-grubber who wants to get a MBA.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could you please elaborate as to what "redistribution" means in this context?

The obvious thing: the redistribution of wealth. Of course you won't find many instances of it being put quite like that, but the idea that the Democratic Party represented a transfer of money from (did it ever matter who from?) to people like them was at the core of hillbilly support for the party from the New Deal until things went to sh!t in recent decades. What sort of Democratic politician was particularly popular in such places once upon a time? People like Robert Byrd and Carl D. Perkins. Says it all, right? People don't consistently vote for one political party for a long time purely out of deference to tradition, they do it because that party is seen as standing for (even if very imperfectly) their interests.

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Word.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though we shouldn't discount wider cultural issues. From Wikipedia's short but not uninformative bio of Henry Howell:

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Unimaginable from a Democratic politician today.

[memphis]

Though we shouldn't discount wider cultural issues. From Wikipedia's short but not uninformative bio of Henry Howell:

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Unimaginable from a Democratic politician today.

Unimaginable from any politician today. Styles have changed. That's not how politics works anymore.

[DINGO Joe]

Though we shouldn't discount wider cultural issues. From Wikipedia's short but not uninformative bio of Henry Howell:

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Unimaginable from a Democratic politician today.

Have you been to Virginia, in like the last 40 years?

[DINGO Joe]

Democrats still care about things like mine safety and black lung disease (of which there is a scandal going on in WV right now) but from an environmental and economic standpoint it's hard to see any Dem outside of WV and KY touting coal.  Of course. it's hard to see any Rep either.  I mean, almost 3GW of NG  electric generation broke ground when McDonnell was governor, when they go live it means 3GW less of coal.  I guess they just like to lie to coal counties and tell them what they want to hear.

[DINGO Joe]

This is something I put together looking at the counties in southwest VA that actually have coal mines (plus the town of Norton located within Wise County).

I put together the Presidential data of these counties from the last 10 elections. Originally, I was just going to compare them to the state as whole and the country, but Gass and I were looking over it and we thought it would be good to include WV too.

Anywho, this is the Democrats' 2-party share of the vote in the SWVA coal counties compared to their 2-party vote in VA, WV and the rest of the country.



Some of the obvious observations I made; others are welcome:

- Reagan narrowly lost these counties in 1984.
- 2000 was the first year where these counties were more R than the country.
- The SWVA coal counties, up until 2008 were actually more D than WV.

Well, I took a slightly more expansive view of the coal region as I included Bristol, Washington and Smyth.  Mainly because  a major coal mining company is headquartered in Bristol--ANR.  In fact, ANR absorbed Massey (which was HQ in Richmond) after the coal mining accident in 2010 that killed 29 miners.

Anyway, I was interested in the what percentage of the total state vote was cast in the coal region over various elections:

1960 Kennedy-Nixon  9.2% (Of course, in 1960 African American registration in Virginia was quite low--WV actually cast more votes than Virginia in 1960.  Coal mining employment peaked in the mid 1950s)

1976 Carter-Ford  5.8%  Carter won much of rural VA (outside of the Shenandoah valley) including the coal region and ran close in NoVa, but was absolutely crushed in metro Richmond and lost the state

2001 Warner-Early  4.1%  Warner won the region, not really as a friend of coal but touting an effort to bring new economic development to the region, like call centers.  Most of the call centers ultimately got outsourced overseas.

2005 Kaine-Kilgore 4.2%  Kaine lost the region to a candidate from the region, and he lost some counties by a wider vote margin than McAuliffe.  Kaine lost Scott by a 6016-2156 margin.  McAuliffe lost Scott by 4001-1158 margin.  Kaine dominated NoVa and won metro Richmond and won the election.

2012 Obama-Romney 3.3%  As graphed by Miles, Obama lost by about 45 points.

2013 McAuliffe-Cooch 3.1%  Overall the turnout in the Governors race was about 58% of the turnout in 2012.  Coal country couldn't match that turnout, with a couple of counties even falling below 50%.  Either lack of enthusiasm or loss of voters

So there you have it.  Coal country in VA (as defined by me, Miles counties/city plus Bristol, Washington and Smyth) makes up about 3% of the vote in Virginia.

[old timey villain]

Really sad that the long history of Democratic dominance is coming to an end in regions like SW Virginia, but I think of it as best for both parties involved. Democrats shouldn't be restrained from supporting progressive causes because of these types of voters and these people shouldn't be expected to vote for a party that has been more focused on winning votes elsewhere.

[minionofmidas]

embraced Mitt Romney

Did they really? For all the Republican percentage gains, turnout in coal country is pretty damn low, and across the state of WV Romney actually received fewer votes than Bush2004 (not in coal country though). It's not the kind of pattern you'd get if the Republican party was being enthusiastically embraced.
(Which of course drives the point that the modern national Democrats have no appeal whatsoever locally - or rather a very strong negative appeal - home even more forcefully.)

[Miles]

Well, I took a slightly more expansive view of the coal region as I included Bristol, Washington and Smyth.  Mainly because  a major coal mining company is headquartered in Bristol--ANR.  In fact, ANR absorbed Massey (which was HQ in Richmond) after the coal mining accident in 2010 that killed 29 miners.

This is what I was going by.

There aren't any actual mines in the counties you added.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Missing the point a little, people.

Did they really? For all the Republican percentage gains, turnout in coal country is pretty damn low, and across the state of WV Romney actually received fewer votes than Bush2004 (not in coal country though). It's not the kind of pattern you'd get if the Republican party was being enthusiastically embraced.
(Which of course drives the point that the modern national Democrats have no appeal whatsoever locally - or rather a very strong negative appeal - home even more forcefully.)

Yeah, it's actually exactly the sort of pattern you'd expect if...

[DINGO Joe]

Well, I took a slightly more expansive view of the coal region as I included Bristol, Washington and Smyth.  Mainly because  a major coal mining company is headquartered in Bristol--ANR.  In fact, ANR absorbed Massey (which was HQ in Richmond) after the coal mining accident in 2010 that killed 29 miners.

This is what I was going by.

There aren't any actual mines in the counties you added.

Nothing wrong with how you chose your counties, and I explained why I chose to add Bristol and Washington.  Smyth is a little more of an iffy choice.  I added it because it's voted  more like the coal counties than the counties closer to the Roanoke--Blacksburg region.  The coal counties had low percentages for Sarvis and pretty much straight ticket voting while counties around Roanoke--Blacksburg had higher Sarvis percentages and swung more from race to race.

I would guess if you excluded Bristol, Washington and Smyth, then the coal counties cast about 2% of the VA vote.  I'd guess coal counties in WV cast about 2/3 to 3/4 of the state's votes.

[Miles]

Nothing wrong with how you chose your counties, and I explained why I chose to add Bristol and Washington.  Smyth is a little more of an iffy choice.  I added it because it's voted  more like the coal counties than the counties closer to the Roanoke--Blacksburg region.  The coal counties had low percentages for Sarvis and pretty much straight ticket voting while counties around Roanoke--Blacksburg had higher Sarvis percentages and swung more from race to race.

I would guess if you excluded Bristol, Washington and Smyth, then the coal counties cast about 2% of the VA vote.  I'd guess coal counties in WV cast about 2/3 to 3/4 of the state's votes.

Yeah; I may go back and redo my chart with those too.

[Lurker]

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Word.

Dissapointing to see such simplistic generalizations (which are not even accurate).
Al/Deadflagblues, it should be noted that the Democrats received a large majority of the working class vote during the last presidential elections. http://blogs.berkeley.edu/2012/11/13/the-verdict-on-class-and-voting/

The numbers in that study seems to contradict basically everything you are saying here. And contrary to what you seem be imply, the amount of "class voting" has actually increased in recent decades, according to the same link.

Incidentally, the Democratic share of the "working class"/low social status group-vote seems to be higher than, say, that of the UK Labour party (or most socialist/social-democratic parties in Western Europe).