No one expected anyone other than Hillary Clinton to be president elect in 2008. As for polling, I'd like to see numbers of her strength in 2006 and 2007 compared to now.
Last time around, her fiercest competitor was in the Democratic primary, this time around he'll be in the Republican one. Also, Obama was nt very well known to the general public in 2005 and 2006, unlike what's the case With Christie now. Christie has shown that he's perfectly capable to win over Democratic (and independent) voters. Hillary probably showed the same in her NY Senate elections, and clearly shows the same symtoms in early Appalachian polls. Still it's a much bigger question mark how much cross-over appeal Hillary will have, compared to Christie. At the same time, noone even comes close to Hillary nationwide when it comes to cross over appeal among women. 2016 could easily turn out as a Women versus Independent election, where Hillary will win women overwhelmingly, while Christie will win independents by a Clear margin as well. Thus is might ultimately come down to battleground state latinos, where both candidates have shown exception strenghts, but where Hillary is even stronger. My prediction is that Christie would/will get between 37 & 41% of the latino vote and Hillary between 58% & 62%. But it Depends on many other factors as well, especially on their picks of vice presidential candidates. Which of the two will pick latin VPs or will both do so? It will be the biggest surprise of 2016 if none ends up doing so.
