Elections Without Thresholds

[DC Al Fine]

Here's Norn Ireland's most recent election. I ignored indy's for this one.

Northern Ireland 2017

DUP: 27 (-1)
Sinn Fein: 27 (nc)
UUP: 12 (+2)
SDLP: 11 (-1)
Alliance: 8 (nc)
TUV: 2 (+1)
Green: 2 (nc)
PBP: 1 (nc)

The independent who wasn't included was a Unionist, so overall the result is ever so slightly better for the Unionists.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Here's a classic wtf threshold election: Turkey 2002, the one which kicked every single party out and led to the AKP hegemony we love (?) today.


AKP (34.63%): 193


•CHP (19.58%): 109


•DYP (TruePath) (9.64%): 53


•MHP (8.44%): 47


•Young Party (7.32%): 40


•DEHAP (Kurds) (6.28%): 35


•Motherland (5.18%): 29


•Felicity (2.52%): 14


•Dem Left (1.23%): 6


•New Turkey (1.17%): 6


•Great Union (1.03%): 5


•Homeland (0.94%): 5


•Workers (0.51%): 2


•Ind. Turkey (0.48%): 2


•Freedom & Solid (0.34%): 1


•Lib Dem (0.29%): 1


•Nation (0.22%): 1


•Communist (0.19%): 1

Obviously another messy coalition would ensure, but what would it be exactly? AKP + Tansu Cillar's True Path Party would get 246; so 30 more seats would be needed. The MHP could have been coaxed in, but they were part of the hated previous coalition (and were the instigators of its downfall) and would piss off the conservative Kurdish part of Erdogan's initial coalition. DEHAP would also be ruled out, given that it was part of a long line of Kurdish parties the Turkish state wants dead. The Young Party seems to have been a shameless oligarch vehicle for a media proprietor who spent most of the AKP years at odds with Erdogan before being chased out. Motherland (centre-right) could be brought in (many of its members joined AKP when it started), which would be one seat away from a majority. I presume Felicity wouldn't be invited for PR reasons (when the AKP split from the reformist faction of Virtue, the ancestral leader of Islamism in Turkey Erbakan and his conservative faction formed Felicity for the True Islamists. The remains of the former leading party (the Democratic Left) and the group intended to be its successor before its most relevant members defected to the resurging CHP (New Turkey) would probably be no hope. Great Union is a far-right outfit with links to the Grey Wolves so, ah, no. Homeland (led by a former cabinet minister) could probably make a decent tiny coalition partner to push the narrow coalition above the line. Workers Party are bizarre Maoist-Kemalist fusionists. The rest don't really matter.

 So there we go:

AKP-DYP-Motherland-Homeland

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

NZ 2017 (majority 61)

Nationals (46.38%): 57 (-1)
Labour (36.06%): 44 (-1)
NZ First (7.57%): 9
Greens (5.90%): 7
TOP (2.23%): 2 (+2)
Maori (1.09%): 1 (+1)
ACT (0.51%): None (-1)
Legalise Weed (0.27%): None

English would still have to work with NZ First.

Maori party saved, but ACT actually lose their one seat.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Germany 2017

CDU (26.98%): 193
SDP (20.68%): 148
AfD (12.74%): 91
FDP (10.83%): 77
Linke (9.31%): 66
Greens (9.01%): 64
CSU (6.22%): 44
Free Voters (1.00%): 7
The Party (0.98%): 7
Animal Prot (0.81%): 5
NDP (0.38%): 2
Pirates (0.38%): 2
ODP (0.31%): 2
Basic Income (0.21%): 1
V-Party (0.14%): None

That's 378 for a Jamaica Coalition and 385 for a Grand, both majorities. The large Bundestag brings in quite a few randoms.

This election wasn't too bad in terms of disproportionately, especially compared to last election.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Germany 2017

CDU (26.98%): 193
SDP (20.68%): 148
AfD (12.74%): 91
FDP (10.83%): 77
Linke (9.31%): 66
Greens (9.01%): 64
CSU (6.22%): 44
Free Voters (1.00%): 7
The Party (0.98%): 7
Animal Prot (0.81%): 5
NDP (0.38%): 2
Pirates (0.38%): 2
ODP (0.31%): 2
Basic Income (0.21%): 1
V-Party (0.14%): None

That's 378 for a Jamaica Coalition and 385 for a Grand, both majorities. The large Bundestag brings in quite a few randoms.

This election wasn't too bad in terms of disproportionately, especially compared to last election.

It would be interesting to see how many candidates each state party sends to the Bundestag.

Free Voters:

Baden-Württemberg: 1
Bavaria: 4
Hesse: 1
Rhineland-Palatinate: 1

(If we used d'Hondt, it would be 6 for Bavaria and 1 for BW. )

[Kingpoleon]

Japan 2014

Liberal Democrat: 159 (-167)
Democrat: 88 (+15)
Japan Innovation: 75 (+34)
Komeito: 65 (+30)
Communist: 56 (+35)
Future Generations: 12 (+10)
Social Democrat: 11 (+9)
People's Life: 9 (+7)

Liberal Democrat + Komeito doesn't quite have a majority, so JIP would have to get involved.

Ooh! A Democrat-Komeito-Social Democrat-People's Life coalition could form a minority government, better so if the Communists joined.

[Former President tack50]

Spain 1977

The first election since 1936, no one really knew what was going to happen and there were many small parties which were hurt by the electoral system

UCD: 125 (-40)
PSOE: 109 (-9)
PCE: 34 (+14)
AP: 30 (+14)
PSP: 16 (+10)
FDC-EDC: 4 (+4)
FDI: 2 (+2)
ASDCI: 2 (+2)
AET: 1 (+1)
AN18: 1 (+1)
RSE: 1 (+1)
Centrist independents: 0 (-2)

PDPC: 10 (-1)
PNV: 6 (-2)
Unió: 3 (+1)
EC: 2 (+1)
EE: 1 (0)


A sh**t show, democracy wouldn't have lasted. IRL the electoral system did its job perfectly, prop up UCD in detriment of the socialists, the communist and all other small left wing groups.

7 national left wing parties would represented! (PSOE, PCE, PSP, FDI, ASDCI, AET and RSE). Falange and the Francoists get represenation in Congress as AN18 (though even then only barely).

A UCD+AP+PDPC+PNV+FDC-PDC+Unió deal would probably be the easiest government to form. But back then PNV was opposed to the constitution and I can't see them working with AP so I'm not sure if that would work. Maybe we get a UCD-PSOE grand coalition? But PSOE back then was more radical (González did a lot to moderate the party in the 70s).

Then again I could see a concentration UCD+PSOE+AP+PCE+PDPC mega grand coalition to write the constitution like IRL.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The 2009 election in Japan:

Democratic (42.41%): 206
LDP (26.73%): 129
New Komeito (11.45%): 55
Communist (7.03%): 34
Soc Dems (4.27%): 20
Yours (4.27%): 20
People's New (1.73%): 8
New Party Nippon (0.75%): 3
Happiness Realisation (0.65%): 3
New Party Daichi (0.62%): 2
Renaissance (0.08%): None
Essential (0.01%): None

for balance the DPJ got 308 seats in the actual election (they are the only party to lose votes in the PR world). Their allied parties all score increases with fulll PR though: the SDP go from 7 to 20, the PNP (a small post-Post privatisation breakaway of the LDP) go from 3 to 8, and the two "New" parties (also LDP rebels, Nippon being formed from the Governor of Nagano who had alienated conservatives from his anti-pork agenda; Daichi being led by a crook from Hokkaido) both increase from their previous one man band status.

Therefore the governing coalition get 239 (241 are needed for a majority, and far off from the 320 needed to overturn the results from a hostile upper house). They would also be burned by the fact that the SDP and New Party Nippon would withdraw from the government. I guess Hatoyama would have to find a new party: the Communists (who increase from 9) could work with them potentially, as could Yoshimi Watanabe's YP (who increase from 5), although presumably not both simultanously.

also lmao that Happiness Realisation get in

[America Needs R'hllor]

Israeli legislative election, 2015:
Likud (23.40%): 29 (-1)
Labour (18.67%): 23 (-1)
Joint Arab List (10.61%): 13 (0)
Yesh Atid (8.82%): 11 (0)
Kulanu (7.49%): 9 (-1)
The Jewish Home (6.74%): 8 (0)
Shas (5.74%): 7 (0)
Israel Beytenu (5.10%): 6 (0)
UTJ (4.99%): 6 (0)
Meretz (3.93%): 4 (-1)
Yahad (2.97%): 3 (+3)
Ale Yarok [Cannabis party] (1.12%): 1 (+1)

And for the mostly wacky parties, if anyone is really interested:

The Arab List [an attempt to be an alternative to the main one] (0.10%): None
Greens (0.07%): None
Breslevs (0.06%): None
Ubizhutan [Haredi feminist women] (0.04%): None
Hope for Change [Arab moderates] (0.03%): None
Pirates (0.02%): None
Perah [basically hippies] (0.02%): None
Nivheret Ha'am [no idea] (0.02%): None
Or [atheists] (0.01%): None
Rent is Too Damn High [their name is different but I couldn't resist] (0.01%): None
Kalkala [clown celebrities] (0.01%): None
Democratura [edgy] (0.01%): None
Social Leadership [snore] (0.01%): None
Anti Porn Party [withdrew from the ballot, 0 votes] (0.00%): None


The current governing coalition, under these results, is 65 seats, which is a majority. But, problems would arise in the beginning of the negotiations- initially, Lieberman (Israel Beytenu's leader) was intent on either being Defence Minister (which he eventually got after Yaalon's ouster, and joined the coalition) or staying in the opposition. So in the first year or so, Bibi had a narrow coalition of 61 seats despite his wildly successful election victory. But in this case, he'd only have 59 MKs without Lieberman, which isn't a majority.

A Labour coalition wouldn't be an option- though Ale Yarok, a natural ally of the left, would enter the Knesset, it's only enough to make up for the lost Meretz seat. Which means, a center-left coalition is out of the question.

Which leaves us with only two options: either Bibi is forced to get Lieberman as Defence Minister instead of his then-ally Yaalon (who could potentially be foreign minister in that scenario, a position Bibi holds to himself until this very day), or he's forced to take in yet another tiny but demanding coalition partnet- Yahad. It's the party of Eli Yishai, former leader of Shas who exiled himself from the party after his rival, Arye Der'i, returned from being a convicted felon to the head of the party (and now our Minister of the Interior, the same position he held when he commited his crimes. Yep. Sad).

Basically, Yishai merged with the far-right extremist party of Jewish National Front. Yes, they're damned racist fascists, and yes, Yishai merged with them because he has no principles, not because he believes in their terrifying, violent agenda. While in our timeline, the far right's representative was in the 4th place in Yishai's party, that was only because it promised them a seat anyway. I believe that in this scenario, they'd demand at least the third place (the second went to a member of the Jewish Home who I guess was disillusioned with Bennett not being fanatic enough). The speculation, back when they were thought a party that could pass the threshold, was that Marzel (the far right guy) would separate from the others in the Knesset. So I guess that would be what happens- Yishai and Shtabon (the Jewish Home guy) would join Bibi, creating further chaos in his government, including tension with Der'i.

Damn, this could actually be a fun timeline to write...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Japan 2017

LDP (33.33%): 156
CDP (19.91%): 93
Hope (17.38%): 81
New Komeito (12.53%): 59
Communist (7.91%): 37
JIP (6.08%): 28
Soc Dem (1.69%): 7
Happiness Realisation (0.52%): 2
Party for Japanese Kokoro (0.41%): 1
No Party to Support (0.22%): 1

LDP-KP : 215

CDP-Communist-SDP: 137

Hope-JIP: 109

233 seats are needed for a majority. It would probably entail an alliance between  Koike's bloc and the LDP, which itself would probably involve ditching Abe.

[Dr. MB]

I'll try USA if it was entirely proportional (forgive me if I get this wrong since I don't know a whole lot about the proportional system).

2016
Democratic Party: 214
Republican Party: 209
Libertarian Party: 6
Independents/Other Party: 4
Green Party: 2

The Democrats would need 4 seats and the Republicans 9 to reach a majority. If the Libertarians caucused with the Republicans and the Greens caucused with the Democrats it would all depend on the independents.

[Tender Branson]

Austria Parliament 2017:

  58 seats - ÖVP (-4 compared with the 4%-threshold & actual election result)
  49 seats - SPÖ (-3)
  48 seats - FPÖ (-3)
  10 seats - NEOS (n.c.)
    8 seats - Pilz (n.c.)
    7 seats - Greens (+7)
    2 seats - G!LT (+2)
    1 seat   - KPÖ Plus (+1)

183 seats - TOTAL

[TheSaint250]

German federal election, 2017*

Union: 197 (-49)
SPD: 123 (-30)
AfD: 75 (-19)
FDP: 64 (-16)
Left: 55 (-14)
Green: 53 (-14)
FW: 7 (+7)
PARTEI: 4 (+4)
Animal Protection: 2 (+2)
Pirate: 2 (+2)
ÖDP: 2 (+2)
NPD: 1 (+1)
BGE: 1 (+1)
German Centre: 1 (+1)
Democracy in Motion: 1 (+1)
Bavaria: 1 (+1)
AD-DEMOCRATS: 1 (+1)
Marxist-Leninist: 1 (+1)

Total: 591 seats

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

And of course the actual Bundestag was even bigger that election...

I honestly think Germany would be improved with no threshold, even though it would probably lead to horrid little abominations like NPD and some kind of Denk.

[TheSaint250]

And of course the actual Bundestag was even bigger that election...

I honestly think Germany would be improved with no threshold, even though it would probably lead to horrid little abominations like NPD and some kind of Denk.

Even if it were changed, parties like the NPD probably still wouldn't have as much power, maybe a seat or a few every election, but I can't see anything beyond that.

[Former President tack50]

Since the next Catalan regional election is coming up soon, I decided to check the ones before it:

2015 Catalan election

JxSí 55 (-7)
CUP 11 (+1)

Cs 25 (-)
PSC 17 (+1)
PP 11 (-)

CQSP 12 (+1)
Unió 3 (+3)
PACMA 1 (+1)

Not much change other than JxSí losing a lot and the minor parties, particularly Unió getting seats. Secessionists do lose their majority, falling 2 seats short. My guess is that they refuse to take any unilateral actions and there's a JxSí-CUP minority coalition with Unió's or CQSP's support.

2012

CiU 44 (-6)
ERC 19 (-2)
CUP 5 (+2)
SI 1 (+1)

PSC 20 (-)
PP 18 (-1)
Cs 11 (+2)
PxC 2 (+2)

ICV-EUiA: 14 (+1)
EB: 1 (+1)

Again, the ruling coalition (CiU-ERC) loses its majority. Considering that back then PSC was more open to a referendum, I guess that either there is a CiU-ERC-PSC coalition that pledges to get a referendum but not do any unilateral moves whatsoever. CUP probably wouldn't support CiU, especially not then.

2010

CiU 57 (-5)
PSC 27 (-1)
PP 18 (-)
ICV-EUiA 10 (-)
ERC 10 (-)
Cs 5 (+2)
SI 4 (-)
PxC 3 (+3)
RI 1 (+1)

2 explicitly secessionsist parties enter parliament but independence isn't the biggest issue yet, more traditional politics dominate. There's almost certainly a CiU-PP right wing coalition, just like in our timeline, except PP will need to actively support CiU, not just abstain.

2006

CiU 45 (-3)
PSC 38 (+1)
ERC 20 (-1)
PP 15 (+1)
ICV-EUiA 13 (+1)
Cs 4 (+1)

Not many changes, not even new parties entering! The government would be the exact same as in real life (PSC-ERC-ICV).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Total: 591 seats

Actually, the default number of seats of the German Bundestag is 598.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Australian Capital Territory general election, 1989

Labor - 5 (±)
Liberal - 3 (-1)
No Self Government - 2 (-1)
Residents Rally - 2 (-2)
Abolish Self-Government - 1 (±)
Fair Elections - 1 (+1)
John Haslem - 1 (+1)
ACT Community - 1 (+1)
Ungrouped - 1 (+1)

With Residents Rally being cut in half I have no idea whatsoever. Probably starts off as a Labor government, though there is a good chance that they swap with the Liberals just like in real life.
In short; I don't know, though probably Labor leading

[TheSaint250]

Total: 591 seats

Actually, the default number of seats of the German Bundestag is 598.

I know that's what I was aiming for but then that happened

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Australian Capital Territory general election, 1992

Labor - 8 (±)
Liberal - 6 (±)
Abolish Self-Government - 1 (±)
Michael Moore - 1 (-1)
Residents Rally - 1 (+1)

Labor Minority with support from Michael Moore

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Australian Capital Territory general election, 1995

Liberal - 8 (+1)
Labor - 6 (±)
Greens - 2 (±)
Michael Moore - 1 (±)
Ungrouped - 0 (-1)

Liberal Minority with support from Michael Moore

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Australian Capital Territory general election, 1998

Liberal - 8 (+1)
Labor - 6 (±)
Paul Osborne - 1 (-1)
Greens - 1 (±)
Democrats - 1 (+1)
Michael Moore - 0 (-1)

Liberal Minority with support from Paul Osborne

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Australian Capital Territory general election, 2001

Labor - 9 (+1)
Liberal - 6 (-1)
Greens - 1 (±)
Democrats - 1 (±)

Labor Majority

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Australian Capital Territory general election, 2004

Labor - 9 (±)
Liberal - 7 (±)
Greens - 1 (±)

Labor Majority

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Australian Capital Territory general election, 2008

Labor - 7 (±)
Liberal - 6 (±)
Greens - 3 (-1)
Motorist - 1 (+1)

Labor Minority with support from Greens