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  NBC/PSRAI: Clinton leads Christie by 10 nationally
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Author Topic: NBC/PSRAI: Clinton leads Christie by 10 nationally  (Read 460 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: November 12, 2013, 05:34:41 am »

44-34 Clinton

Thirty-two percent of GOP and GOP-leaning respondents called Christie their top choice for the Republican presidential nod; 31 percent named someone else.

In contrast, Clinton was the first choice of 66 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning respondents for the Democratic nomination; 14 percent said they’d opt for another candidate.

...

The poll, conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, surveyed 1,003 adults Nov. 7-10 and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.6 percentage points.

The sample included 428 Democrats and people who lean Democratic, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5.5 percentage points; and 394 Republicans and those who lean Republican, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5.8 percentage points.

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/hillary-clinton-chris-christie%20poll%202016-99687.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2013, 05:38:09 am »

So, we have 3 recent polls, using 3 different criterias:

NBC poll: Clinton+10 (among all adults)

PPP poll: Clinton+5 (among RV)

Rasmussen poll: Clinton+2 (among LV)
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2013, 05:43:08 am »

Sounds a bit generous to me. PPP is probably the closest. It's dumb to be polling LVs this early, but typical of Rassy, I suppose.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2013, 05:47:33 am »

Sounds a bit generous to me. PPP is probably the closest. It's dumb to be polling LVs this early, but typical of Rassy, I suppose.

It's natural that the adult poll shows the widest margin for Clinton and if you go down to RV and LV the lead falls, because the electorate becomes more Republican.

Polls have shown in 2012, that non-registered adults strongly favor the DEM candidate.

So, the leads above could be correct, but the margin of error probably plays a role too.

Also: PSRAI, polling for Pew Research in 2012, had the closest final poll with Obama+3 (actual result was Obama+4)
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2013, 06:01:27 am »

Thirty-two percent of GOP and GOP-leaning respondents called Christie their top choice for the Republican presidential nod; 31 percent named someone else.

He's suddenly not the elephant in the room anymore then, if more than 50% of likely GOP primary voters now support him. Tongue
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2013, 06:05:14 am »

So, we have 3 recent polls, using 3 different criterias:

NBC poll: Clinton+10 (among all adults)

PPP poll: Clinton+5 (among RV)

Rasmussen poll: Clinton+2 (among LV)

It's far too early to poll likely voters at this stage. That can be done two months in advance, not Three years. Tongue And both parties have three more years to register more voters, especially in the important battleground states. Also, an awful lot of people are going turn 18 during the next three years and almost as many older voters are likely to die off. Thus I consider the all voters model the most credible at this stage, followed by the registered voters. I think the all voters model is the best one until 6-9 months prior to the election. And from two months on, it should be likely voters.
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2013, 08:43:01 am »

A poll of all adults doesn't mean anything.  Many adults don't even know who Hillary Clinton is, and aren't likely voters.  This poll means nothing. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2013, 08:53:05 am »

A poll of all adults doesn't mean anything.  Many adults don't even know who Hillary Clinton is, and aren't likely voters.  This poll means nothing.  

Hillary Clinton's name recognition in the US is 90%+

In the last national Quinnipiac poll from October, only 6% of those polled didn't know enough to rate her favorably or unfavorably.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1959
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2013, 08:57:11 am »

In Quinnipiac's "hotness poll" from August, which also asked name recognition, only 2% didn't know Hillary Clinton:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=1932

Scroll down to the tables, 1st question under "DK".
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2013, 09:09:07 am »

Gallup trend chart, only 1% has never heard of Hillary Clinton (you probably need to live in a cave in the mountains or something to not know who Hillary Clinton is):

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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2013, 10:43:43 am »

That doesn't change the fact that no matter what you do, voter turn out will never be 'all adults'.  They may know who Clinton is, but that doesn't mean they'll vote for her. 
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2013, 10:55:43 am »

Also: PSRAI, polling for Pew Research in 2012, had the closest final poll with Obama+3 (actual result was Obama+4)

Actually the RAND poll (Obama +3.3) and the Democracy Corps poll (Obama +4) were the most accurate, but Pew/PSRAI was also very good.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2013, 11:52:55 am »

That doesn't change the fact that no matter what you do, voter turn out will never be 'all adults'.  They may know who Clinton is, but that doesn't mean they'll vote for her. 

I know, I said this in my 3rd post above.

I just wanted to correct your point that many adults don't know Hillary.

Also: PSRAI, polling for Pew Research in 2012, had the closest final poll with Obama+3 (actual result was Obama+4)

Actually the RAND poll (Obama +3.3) and the Democracy Corps poll (Obama +4) were the most accurate, but Pew/PSRAI was also very good.

Ah yeah, I was only looking at the last RCP average page ... Wink
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Consciously Unconscious
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2013, 12:20:45 pm »

Yeah, I was exaggerating a bit, I probably shouldn't have phrased it that way.  After being first lady, a senator, presidential candidate, and secretary of state most adults would know her.   However, most adults aren't that involved in politics, and definitely aren't following a presidential election three years away (like us). 
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